Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1224 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

...SEVERE STORMS LIKELY TUESDAY...

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
MVFR to VFR conditions prevail as cigs have risen with increasing
surface temperatures. Scattered showers and storms are likely
this afternoon with a few marginally severe storms primarily in
eastern sites. These storms will cause occasional reductions in
cigs and vsbys as well as create a microburst and wind shear
threat invof. Tonight, cigs lower as low stratus and patchy fog
develops across the area resulting in MVFR/IFR conditions.
Additional storms may develop particularly for northern sites
prior to 18z Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight: In the wake of yesterday's severe weather, the
airmass remains hot and muggy. Whereas the upper level
disturbance is pulling to the northeast, the cooler airmass/front
is well back to the north and west. The southerly flow will
continue to push warm air and moisture up into the region today,
with dewpoints making it into the 70s by midday. 850mb temps surge
into the 17-18C range this afternoon in a southwesterly flow/waa
regime. Today's highs surge into the 80s as a result and will
result in heat indices in the 90s along and west of I-55 and the
ArkLaMiss/Delta. Instability will be easy to come by this
afternoon, and scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected,
with better coverage in the models generally in the southeast.
Models vary with coverage and intensity of the showers and
thunderstorms, generally suppressing the convection/limiting it
with lack of forcing and/or a cap in place. Expecting to see the
sun briefly towards the end of the day as the cu settle down, only
to see the low stratus clouds begin to develop again in the
overnight and move northward into the region. After 06z tonight,
precip chances again start to increase for northern MS as another
disturbance ripples through the mid MS Valley in advance of the
next storm. /HJS/

Tuesday through Sunday: Main focus in the long term remains the
potential for severe storms Tuesday which has now seen an
escalation to an "Enhanced" threat for much of our CWA. In
addition, locally heavy rainfall will contribute to runoff
concerns and pose a "Limited" threat of flash flooding for much of
our CWA as well. A warm moist airmass will be over CWA come
Tuesday morning ahead of a potent shortwave trough and surface
cold front. Surface dew points are expected to in the upper 60 to
lower 70s with PWATs pooling to near two inches. Although models
suggest convection may get an early start, heating is expected to
result in MLCAPEs >2000j/kg in an environment with rather steep
lapse rates around 8C/km and vertical totals near 30 along with
favorable deep layer shear. There will likely be discrete cell
development ahead of the main band of storms that is expected to
move across the CWA during the afternoon. Large hail, damaging
wind gusts and a few tornadoes will be likely along with rainfall
rates in excess of an inch per hour. The shortwave will shift east
of Mississippi during the evening although broad upper level
troughing will linger over our region. The potential for severe
storms will end with the passage of the cold front also expected
during the evening. A >1020mb high will build into our region
slowly Wednesday ending the rain across our southeast by Wednesday
evening. Temperatures will top out in the low to mid 80s Tuesday
and in the wake of the cold front range from the lower 70s
northwest to near 80F in the southeast. Although a few additional
shortwaves will ripple through the region through the end of the
week, dry weather is expected to last until Saturday night as a
weaker cold front sags into north Mississippi. This cold front
looks to stall north of our CWA but daytime heating Sunday is
expected to develop isolated to scattered convection across our
CWA. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       87  72  84  60 /  57  13  98  55
Meridian      86  70  85  61 /  75  29  96  71
Vicksburg     88  72  82  60 /  56  10  96  36
Hattiesburg   87  72  84  63 /  68  30  86  83
Natchez       87  73  82  60 /  46   9  96  47
Greenville    87  72  82  58 /  50  26  89  28
Greenwood     87  72  83  58 /  54  23  94  41

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

LP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1222 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-034-040-041-060-
041730-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Washington-Issaquena-Sharkey-Adams-
1222 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, northwest Mississippi, southwest
Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Severe storms are likely and will be capable of producing
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph, hail up to golf ball size, and
possible tornadoes Tuesday into Tuesday evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Heavy rainfall of one to three inches in a short amount of time
may lead to flash flooding over much of the area Tuesday into
Tuesday evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Tuesday
through Tuesday night.

MSZ019-025>028-035-036-042-043-047>049-053>056-059-061>066-
072>074-041730-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Humphreys-Holmes-
Yazoo-Madison MS-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-
Smith-Jefferson-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-
Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
1222 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, northwest Mississippi,
south central Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Isolated severe storms containing hail up to half dollar size and
damaging wind gusts will be possible this afternoon.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Severe storms are likely and will be capable of producing
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph, hail up to golf ball size, and
possible tornadoes Tuesday into Tuesday evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Heavy rainfall of one to three inches in a short amount of time
may lead to flash flooding over much of the area Tuesday into
Tuesday evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Tuesday night.

MSZ029>033-037>039-044>046-050>052-057-058-041730-
Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-
Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Jasper-Clarke-
1222 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
and northeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Severe storms containing hail up to golf ball size and damaging
wind gusts will be possible this afternoon. A tornado can't be
ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Severe storms are likely and will be capable of producing
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph, hail up to golf ball size, and
possible tornadoes Tuesday into Tuesday evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Heavy rainfall of one to three inches in a short amount of time
may lead to flash flooding over much of the area Tuesday into
Tuesday evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Tuesday night.

20

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1220 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0632 PM     TORNADO          1 N ACONA               33.29N 90.02W
05/02/2021                   HOLMES             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TEN TO TWELVE TREES WERE DOWNED ALONG HIGH
            17 NEAR THE HOLMES/CARROLL COUNTY LINE.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1226 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     TORNADO          2 E BLACK HAWK          33.32N 89.97W
05/02/2021                   CARROLL            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE WAS DOWN ACROSS HWY 430.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1253 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     TORNADO          1 S BLACK HAWK          33.31N 90.01W
05/02/2021                   CARROLL            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TIN ROOF WAS BLOWN OFF OF A BUILDING AT THE
            CEDAR HILL RANCH.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
101 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

MSZ030-031-031845-
Lowndes MS-Clay MS-
101 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL CLAY AND
NORTHEASTERN LOWNDES COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

At 100 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Columbus AFB, moving east at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Columbus AFB around 115 PM CDT.
  Kolola Springs around 120 PM CDT.
  Caledonia around 130 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
northeastern Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3360 8862 3368 8863 3368 8850 3367 8849
      3367 8850 3366 8852 3365 8851 3366 8850
      3366 8846 3368 8843 3367 8842 3369 8840
      3369 8827 3362 8827
TIME...MOT...LOC 1800Z 266DEG 19KT 3367 8852

7