Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
357 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tomorrow: A significant severe weather event is
expected to unfold across the ArkLaMiss this evening and lasting
through early Saturday morning. Models are in a good agreement
with the placement of the system and we are confident that there
will be multiple rounds of QLCS(squall line storms). The first
round will be this evening starting around 5-6pm or so and this
line of storms will mainly effect areas in the west and north of
I-20 where some super cells may occur. An unusual cold air mass
within the mid and upper levels with these earlier storms,
support large hail(baseball and greater) along with gusty winds as
we peak with daytime heating. Straight lined winds with these
storms could exceed 80mph. The second round will start later
tonight around 10-11pm and will continue through the overnight
hours and lasting until about 5am Saturday morning. With the
second round of storms, the environment will be a tad bit cooler
making any severe potential supportive of all modes including,
hail, strong winds, and a few tornados.

Although the tornado threat is not the greatest threat with these
storms, this is still April and we are in peak severe weather season
for central Mississippi so a few tornadoes will still be possible.
Especially across the MS Delta with those earlier storms(first
round).

The next potential impact will be flash flooding. Excessive rainfall
appears to be more likely in the evening and early over night hours
along the instability gradient. At least 2-5 inches of rain is
possible for most areas in our CWA with possible locally higher
amounts. Flash flooding will be possible along with the possibility
of some minor river flooding.

With all that being said, a 'Moderate Risk' threat has been placed
for much our entire outlook area for tonight and part of early
Saturday. As far as timing an exit for these storms, by Saturday
afternoon, areas in the west will be clear while locations east of I-
55 will have some lingering showers. We expect the severe threat to
be over around 5am Saturday but again, showers will still be
lingering across the east during the early afternoon as the system
ejects east. By late afternoon, the region should be clear from rain
and the rest of Saturday will be pleasant. High temperatures will
range from the low 70s in the north to upper 70s in the south and
even around 80 degrees in the Pine Belt region./JNE/

Saturday night through Thursday: By Saturday evening the nearly
stacked low will be lifting northeast of the mid Mississippi valley
with its associated cold front southeast of or CWA but broad upper
level troughing will take until Sunday to shift east of Mississippi.
Despite upper level troughing aloft a weak surface high will shift
over our CWA through Sunday helping provide dry weather. In the wake
of the cold front Sunday morning will start of cooler than normal in
upper 40s to lower 50s but a return to warmer than normal
temperatures is expected through Monday night. The dry weather will
come to an end by late Monday afternoon as rain chances begin
increasing from the southwest ahead of and approaching cold front
driven by another nearly stacked low moving over the Great Lakes
region from the northern Plains. Although rain chances will increase
through Tuesday ahead of the cold front, this cold front will lose
its upper level support and stall across the CWA Tuesday night.
Models differ on how far south into our CWA the front will stall but
a disturbance moving through the region Wednesday will help the front
drift south of our CWA by Wednesday evening. Provided the cold front
does move south of our CWA by Thursday, a drier forecast will be in
store but, consensus currently maintains rain chances and cooler
temperatures across our CWA through Thursday night. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
All TAF sites will see VFR/IFR/LIFR conditions at some point
during the TAF period. +TSRA/-TSRA will be possible in the late
afternoon-early evening specially for sites in the west and north.
The 2nd round of storms will be late tonight affecting sites in
the east and parts of central MS. Expect gusty winds when storms
roll through this evening. Winds will be out of the south./JNE/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       63  77  50  77 /  99  58   2   0
Meridian      62  79  50  77 /  94  85   4   0
Vicksburg     64  77  50  79 /  97  35   1   0
Hattiesburg   64  81  53  79 /  92  91   7   0
Natchez       64  78  50  79 /  98  45   2   0
Greenville    63  73  50  76 /  97  24   0   0
Greenwood     63  74  49  76 /  96  46   1   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

JNE/22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
331 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-025-MSZ018-019-025>059-061>066-
072>074-102045-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Tensas-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-
Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-
Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena-
Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-
Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-
Clarke-Jefferson-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-
Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
331 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Moderate
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

The rest of today through tonight, a significant severe weather
event will unfold across the ArkLaMiss region. A few severe
storms capable of producing large hail to the size of baseballs
could develop initially this late afternoon, but expect the most
widespread storms later tonight. A large thunderstorm system
moving across the area after midnight could bring widespread wind
gusts of up to 80 mph and a few tornadoes.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Given the expectation for multiple storms in some locations, there
could be a threat for heavy rainfall producing localized flash
flooding, especially tonight when storms will be more widespread.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

LAZ024-026-MSZ060-102045-
Catahoula-Concordia-Adams-
331 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

The rest of today through tonight, a significant severe weather
event will unfold across the ArkLaMiss region. A few severe
storms capable of producing large hail to the size of baseballs
could develop initially this late afternoon, but expect the most
widespread storms later tonight. A large thunderstorm system
moving across the area after midnight could bring widespread wind
gusts of up to 80 mph and a few tornadoes.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Given the expectation for multiple storms in some locations, there
could be a threat for heavy rainfall producing localized flash
flooding, especially tonight when storms will be more widespread.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

14

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
635 PM CDT FRI APR 9 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     HAIL             2 W PHILADELPHIA        32.77N 89.15W
04/09/2021  E1.00 INCH       NESHOBA            MS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FIRE REPORTS 0.75-1 INCH HAIL WEST OF
            PHILADELPHIA.

&&

LP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
637 PM CDT FRI APR 9 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             5 E MONTROSE            32.12N 89.15W
04/09/2021  E1.75 INCH       JASPER             MS   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA PHOTOGRAPH OF HAIL ALMOST 2
            TIMES THE SIZE OF A QUARTER SIDE BY SIDE.

&&

LP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
639 PM CDT FRI APR 9 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0453 PM     HAIL             STRINGER                31.87N 89.27W
04/09/2021  E1.25 INCH       JASPER             MS   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA VIDEO SHOWS HAIL SOMEWHAT
            LARGER THAN QUARTERS NEAR STRINGER.

&&

LP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
643 PM CDT FRI APR 9 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0513 PM     HAIL             1 ESE LOUIN             32.07N 89.25W
04/09/2021  E1.25 INCH       JASPER             MS   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA VIDEO SHOWS HAIL AT LEAST
            MARGINALLY LARGER THAN QUARTERS IN LOUIN.

&&

LP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
647 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

MSZ019-025-035-100030-
Humphreys MS-Leflore MS-Sunflower MS-
647 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN SUNFLOWER...
SOUTHWESTERN LEFLORE AND HUMPHREYS COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 647 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Darlove, or 9 miles east of Hollandale, moving east at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Isola around 700 PM CDT.
  Belzoni around 705 PM CDT.
  Swiftown around 715 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Morgan City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
central, north central and northwestern Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3337 9029 3337 9032 3336 9031 3335 9028
      3331 9029 3332 9032 3330 9033 3314 9033
      3312 9036 3313 9038 3311 9039 3310 9068
      3312 9070 3320 9068 3323 9073 3327 9073
      3327 9076 3346 9076 3349 9045
TIME...MOT...LOC 2347Z 263DEG 33KT 3321 9070

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
655 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

MSZ025>027-100045-
Carroll MS-Grenada MS-Leflore MS-
655 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CARROLL...WESTERN GRENADA AND
EASTERN LEFLORE COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 655 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from 7 miles west of Charleston to near Money
to 7 miles north of Tchula. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Leflore, Teoc and Avalon around 705 PM CDT.
  Seven Pines and Malmaison around 710 PM CDT.
  Black Hawk, North Carrollton and Coila around 720 PM CDT.
  Jefferson around 725 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Carrollton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
central and north central Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3368 8977 3368 8979 3323 8981 3337 9031
      3374 9024 3372 9022 3372 9014 3381 9014
      3382 8993 3390 8992 3390 8977
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 272DEG 29KT 3398 9019 3361 9017 3329 9024

TW