Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
628 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
Most locations are seeing VFR conditions this evening. A couple
that have recently been affected by thunderstorms have remained at
MVFR. As storms move north and/or diminish this evening, VFR
conditions should remain for a few hours. However, additional
storms will be possible tonight especially for KGLH/KGWO. MVFR to
IFR ceilings will be likely tonight for most locations but resume
VFR through the morning hours. More severe weather will occur
tomorrow afternoon and evening. TAF sites affected tomorrow
afternoon may include KHBG/KPIB and perhaps KMEI. Farther west,
KGLH should be impacted around 23z or 00z and more adjustments
will be made with later TAF cycles. Winds will also be gusty
outside of thunderstorms tomorrow with south winds around 15kt
gusting to 30kts. /28/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Through Wednesday night: An outbreak of multiple rounds of severe
thunderstorms is expected across our region on Wednesday.

But first, widespread shower activity, with embedded storms,
continues early this afternoon mainly south of I-20, south of a
west- to-east oriented quasi-stationary front. Training convection
in this area has led to several instances of flash flooding
earlier today, with automated gauge reports of around 6" reported
in Jasper County. A short term Flash Flood Watch was posted late
this morning to highlight the potential for a continuing threat
this afternoon. However, we expect activity to gradually spread to
the north over the next several hours as the front begins to
retreat northward as a warm front. With 40-50 kt of effective
shear in place across the region and moderate mixed layer
instability, isolated storms could become severe through this
evening. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary
threats through the early part of the evening. While a tornado
cannot be ruled out entirely this afternoon and evening, effective
SRH is rather marginal at this time.

ROUND 1: Later tonight into early Wednesday morning however, the
front will begin to advance northward, and as mid/upper forcing
begins to increase, new convective development is anticipated
across North LA spreading across the ArkLaMiss Delta mainly before
daybreak. Steep mid level lapse rates, strong deep layer shear,
moderate instability, and increasing low level flow will support
greater potential for severe storms than we are seeing this
afternoon. All modes of severe weather will be possible, with
sufficient (but not optimal) low level shear for tornadoes. These
storms are expected to pull north of the area by sunrise, with a
general lull in activity across most of the area through much of
the morning hours. This will provide a window early in the day for
temps to climb into the lower 80s in many areas. Through the day
winds will be gusty even outside of storms, with some potential
for gusts in the 30-40 mph range as deeper mixing occurs.

ROUND 2: During the day, a surface low will deepen as it lifts
into the mid-Mississippi Valley, with a trailing cold front
extending through the ArkLaTex by midday and an expansive warm
sector across our area. Given increasing mid/upper forcing and
instability by the afternoon hours, scattered supercells are
expected to develop in the warm sector, with CAM guidance
suggesting this development will primarily occur across
central/east MS eastward into AL. These storms will have the
potential to become severe with all modes possible, with storm
mode supporting the possibility for significant severe weather.
This includes the potential for strong long-track tornadoes, hail
up to baseball size (some analog guidance suggests even larger),
and damaging wind gusts.

ROUND 3: Meanwhile, another round of convection will develop
where greater low level forcing exists along a pre-frontal
trough, with storms increasing in both coverage and intensity from
AR southward into LA by late afternoon. These will spread
northeastward/eastward across the area through the early evening
hours into an environment still characterized by moderate to
strong instability, and strong deep layer shear. Perhaps most
concerning is an anticipated strengthening low level jet lifting
northward across the area during the early evening. Thus,
significant severe weather will remain possible, including strong
long-track tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging wind gusts.

Now is the time to make your severe weather plan. Know where you
will go when warnings are issued for your area! /DL/

Thursday into early next week...

Much quieter weather will occur behind the Wednesday significant
severe weather. Shortwave ridging and high pressure at the surface
will move into the region through the weekend. Cooler air will
filter in behind the Wednesday frontal passage, with temperatures
a little closer to seasonal. Highs will be in the 60s and some mid
to upper 50s through the weekend and overnight lows in the 40s.
The next chance for rain and storms will come Monday into Tuesday
as an upper level system tracks across Missouri. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       66  82  50  62 /  45  90  72   0
Meridian      65  80  55  64 /  53  83  74   2
Vicksburg     68  83  49  63 /  38  90  53   0
Hattiesburg   67  81  55  67 /  21  87  70   2
Natchez       68  81  49  64 /  24  89  46   0
Greenville    65  78  49  58 /  66  93  54   1
Greenwood     66  81  50  60 /  65  92  88   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ051-052-
     055>058-063>066.

LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

28

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
458 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

MSZ038-039-045-046-162230-
Kemper MS-Neshoba MS-Winston MS-Noxubee MS-
458 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN NOXUBEE...
NORTHWESTERN KEMPER...SOUTHEASTERN WINSTON AND NORTHEASTERN NESHOBA
COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 458 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Nanih Waiya, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Preston around 505 PM CDT.
  Gholson around 520 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3279 8894 3294 8906 3310 8881 3292 8866
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 235DEG 28KT 3291 8893

TW

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
634 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

MSZ054-170000-
Copiah MS-
634 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL COPIAH COUNTY UNTIL 700
PM CDT...

At 633 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Glancy, or 9 miles west of Hazlehurst, moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Hazlehurst and Martinsville around 650 PM CDT.
  Gallman around 655 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3172 9062 3187 9067 3198 9039 3176 9031
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 253DEG 26KT 3182 9054

TW