Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1151 PM CST Thu Dec 31 2020

.UPDATE...
Updated for 06Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF discussion:

Low CIGs, SHRA, and isolated TSRA have resulted in a mix of
limiting flight conditions around the region tonight. A line of
storms will continue to advance across the region over the next
few hours as a powerful upper level low ejects j=north, just west
of the region. Winds will continue to be gusty as they take on a
more S/SW component. Some low CIGs and shower activity will stick
around into the morning but conditions will begin to improve
around the region thereafter as dryer air enters the region. A mix
of VFR and MVFR conditions will exist throughout the day tomorrow
due to some stubborn low CIGs. Winds will begin to subside
on Friday as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
It has been rather quiet across the region severewise. A warm
front is draped across roughly the I-20 corridor. South of this
front, dewpoints remain in the lower to mid 60s. North of this
front, dewpoints are in the 40s and 50s and this area has been
very overworked with continuous showers this evening. The main
forcing with the sfc low remains across the ArkLaTex region. This
will continue to push off to the northeast along with the front
and rain through the night, but drier air seems to be inhibiting
convection as well to the south in the warm sector. While it is
not completely out of the question still for some strong to severe
storms to develop over the next few hours, it seems more and more
unlikely as we continue through the evening hours. The main area
to watch will be along and south of this warm front, where low
level convergence should be greatest. A band of showers is
currently moving across the MissLou and this likely is associated
with the front, as a wind shift occurs behind this line. Overall,
convection has been rather meager with little in the way of
instability and lightning has even been scarce with this activity. A
slight risk still lingers across the region for this threat into
the overnight hours. Models continue to show that much of this
rain should be out of the region by 12Z. /28/

Prior discussion below:

Tonight and Friday: Mid afternoon satellite imagery/RAP analysis
showed the circulation around a closed low spinning over central
Texas with a rather strong diffluent kinematic field spreading
north over our CWA. Mid afternoon surface analysis had a 1002mb
low centered over the east Texas coast with a warm front just
north of Natchez extending to the northeast; east of Vicksburg and
to near Starkville. Cold and stable air continued north of this
warm front with temperatures in the mid 40s across portions of our
delta region. Models are in good agreement that the closed low and
surface low will track north tonight lifting the warm front and
then cold front across our CWA. Considering the progged
environment severe storms are likely across our southwest and
possible tonight across much of our CWA outside of our delta
region where an severe storms will be more isolated. The main
threat will an severe storms tonight will remain damaging winds
with tornadoes being secondary. The greatest potential for
tornadic storms will be over the southwest this evening. The
severe threat will end from the southwest after midnight and be
over prior to sunrise. Drier air wrapping into the system may
bring some clearing early Friday morning but stratus is expected
to work back in across the north until the closed low lifts
farther north of our CWA. Our winds aloft will remain out of the
southwest Friday downstream of a second closed low moving out of
old Mexico into west Texas. Although wl have a drier airmass in
place, highs will actually be warmer than normal. /22/

Friday night through Wednesday night: Weak upper ridging will
briefly build across the region Friday night, but another short
wave will move across the area on Saturday. This wave will have
very little moisture to work with, but we could see some light
rain across portions of the area Saturday afternoon. Highs will be
in the 50s across the area. Surface ridging will build in
Saturday night into Sunday, with lows falling into the 30s, but
another short wave with a weak cold front will move through Sunday
evening into the overnight hours. Surface high pressure ridging
will build in once again on Monday and continue into Tuesday.
Highs will climb into the 60s each day, with overnight lows in the
30s. Another storm system will approach the area on Wednesday and
move through Wednesday night with more rainshowers. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       54  63  41  55 /  98   2   0  16
Meridian      60  70  42  59 /  97   7   1  20
Vicksburg     50  58  39  54 /  98   2   0  16
Hattiesburg   57  69  43  60 /  94   3   2  17
Natchez       50  58  41  55 /  93   1   0  16
Greenville    49  56  39  50 /  99   3   0   8
Greenwood     53  63  40  53 /  98   4   0  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

JPM3

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
718 PM CST Thu Dec 31 2020

ARZ074-075-LAZ007-015-024-MSZ018-019-025>030-034-020130-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-Richland-Catahoula-Bolivar-Sunflower-
Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Washington-
718 PM CST Thu Dec 31 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and north central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Tonight

Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts are
possible tonight. In addition, a brief tornado cannot be ruled
out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

LAZ008-009-016-023-025-026-MSZ031>033-035>066-072>074-020130-
West Carroll-East Carroll-Madison LA-Franklin LA-Tensas-Concordia-
Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-
Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-
Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-
Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
718 PM CST Thu Dec 31 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, northeast Mississippi, and south
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and tornadoes
are possible tonight.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

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   @NWSJacksonMS
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...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1044 PM CST Thu Dec 31 2020

MSZ053-054-059-061-062-010530-
Jefferson MS-Copiah MS-Lincoln MS-Franklin MS-Claiborne MS-
1044 PM CST Thu Dec 31 2020

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CLAIBORNE...WESTERN LINCOLN...
JEFFERSON...FRANKLIN AND SOUTHWESTERN COPIAH COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM
CST...

At 1044 PM CST, Meteorologists were tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from Alcorn to near Bude. Movement was east at
35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Bude around 1050 PM CST.
  New Hope around 1055 PM CST.
  Port Gibson and Little Springs around 1100 PM CST.
  Mccall Creek around 1105 PM CST.
  Pattison around 1110 PM CST.
  Hermanville around 1115 PM CST.
  Vaughn and West Lincoln around 1120 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Meadville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3135 9093 3189 9122 3192 9118 3196 9119
      3198 9116 3199 9110 3201 9108 3204 9109
      3210 9100 3210 9096 3208 9095 3209 9094
      3208 9094 3208 9092 3212 9092 3213 9091
      3212 9088 3212 9087 3135 9043
TIME...MOT...LOC 0444Z 251DEG 29KT 3189 9113 3145 9089

NF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
234 AM CST Fri Jan 1 2021

MSZ032-033-037-038-044-045-010900-
Oktibbeha MS-Neshoba MS-Attala MS-Leake MS-Winston MS-Choctaw MS-
234 AM CST Fri Jan 1 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN LEAKE...CHOCTAW...
SOUTHWESTERN OKTIBBEHA...EASTERN ATTALA...WESTERN WINSTON AND NESHOBA
COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CST...

At 234 AM CST, Meteorologists were tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from 8 miles east of Poplar Creek to near
Madden. Movement was east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Edinburg around 245 AM CST.
  Dowdville around 250 AM CST.
  Pearl River around 255 AM CST.
  Philadelphia, Ackerman, Chester and Dixon around 300 AM CST.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Noxapater, Tucker,
Mccool, French Camp, Sturgis and Weir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3261 8943 3329 8947 3329 8945 3339 8945
      3348 8903 3261 8901
TIME...MOT...LOC 0834Z 265DEG 22KT 3332 8942 3274 8940

JM