Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
419 AM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 409 AM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

Notably cooler today with nearly steady temperatures. Showers exit
early this morning from west to east. Additional rain showers are
possible for some this afternoon. Seasonably cool this weekend with
wet weather possible Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 409 AM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

Showers and thunderstorms along a cold front will exit from west to
east through the remainder of the early morning hours. The parent
upper- level low will gradually meander east today through
southern Michigan. Adequate moisture is found in the low- levels,
and showers are ongoing in the vicinity of the upper-level low.
So, rain showers will remain in the forecast today for those
north of US 24. Lapse rates and instability are maximized along
the cold front, so the chance of thunder this afternoon from the
upper- level low is minimal.

Dry air arrives overnight, bringing an end to the rain chances.
Seasonably cold tonight with lows near 40 for most; mid- 40s for
those toward west-central Indiana. As an aside, through the 20th,
Fort Wayne is still experiencing the warmest start to October with
an average temperature of 64.6. South Bend is seeing their 2nd
warmest (behind October 1928), with an average temperature of
65.3.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 409 AM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

Cyclonic flow aloft will prevail Friday and Saturday thanks to an
upper-level low over eastern Ontario. This sends lobes of vorticity
through our area, with perhaps the most pronounced lobe passing
through Friday night/Saturday. Moisture aloft is lacking by that
time, so the dry forecast will continue. Our coldest lows of the
fall season loom Saturday night, especially in south- central
Michigan where lows in the mid-30s are forecast. Patchy frost has
been introduced.

A warm front lifts in on Sunday and stalls over our area, likely
bringing widespread rain to the area as the day progresses. Flow
through the mid-levels is parallel to the warm front and convergent
over northern Indiana. This is paired with PWATS near the 90th
percentile for this time of year. As a result, there is a non-
zero threat of locally heavy rain. The surface low exits Monday
night at which point rain chances gradually diminish.

We'll most likely be between systems by midweek with a trough to
both our west and our east. Deterministic models have trended dry
on Wednesday with this 00z run, but ensembles still offer the
chance for wet weather. I have blended the previous and latest
forecasts, with a further POP reduction thereafter. The western
trough axis swings through Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 146 AM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

VFR to MVFR conditions expected at both terminals through the
period as a surface low and associated frontal boundaries move
through the area. A couple of more impressive  showers and
thunderstorms that just impacted KSBN will continue to lift
north-northeast over the next hour-so after that only expect light
rain showers at the site. At KFWA we still have potential for
showers over the next couple hours, but models suggest
precipitation will continue to blossom over the eastern portion of
the forecast area through the 8-11z timeframe. Thunderstorms are
possible given mid level instability, moisture
increase/convergence, and lift associated with the approaching
system. Otherwise, once the low lifts northeastward and cold air
advection begins expect winds to increase and shift northwest-with
gusts up to 25-30 mph expected this afternoon. Light rain showers
are possible again towards the end of the period, but confidence
too low to include at this point.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Brown
SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...MCD

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
218 AM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

INZ004-005-MIZ078-079-210645-
St. Joseph IN-Elkhart IN-St. Joseph MI-Cass MI-
218 AM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

...An area of strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern
Elkhart, eastern St. Joseph, southeastern Cass and southwestern St.
Joseph Counties through 245 AM EDT...

At 217 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong
thunderstorms over Elkhart, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Bristol around 225 AM EDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Constantine and
White Pigeon.

This includes Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 86 and
108.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4200 8585 4181 8557 4176 8564 4176 8566
      4175 8566 4145 8606 4148 8606 4148 8614
      4155 8626
TIME...MOT...LOC 0617Z 221DEG 40KT 4169 8594

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MCD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
240 AM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

MIZ078-079-210730-
St. Joseph MI-Cass MI-
240 AM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Cass
and St. Joseph Counties through 330 AM EDT...

At 240 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Three Rivers, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Three Rivers around 245 AM EDT.
  Centreville around 250 AM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4206 8529 4176 8565 4176 8572 4189 8591
      4207 8576 4207 8529
TIME...MOT...LOC 0640Z 218DEG 43KT 4191 8572

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MCD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
319 AM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

MIZ080-210800-
Branch MI-
319 AM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Branch
County through 400 AM EDT...

At 318 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bronson, or 9 miles west of Coldwater, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Coldwater and Union City around 330 AM EDT.

This includes Interstate 69 in Michigan between mile markers 12 and
21.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4198 8483 4182 8526 4188 8529 4201 8529
      4207 8521 4207 8483
TIME...MOT...LOC 0718Z 234DEG 39KT 4194 8519

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MCD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
404 AM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

INZ007-009-MIZ080-081-OHZ001-210845-
De Kalb IN-Steuben IN-Branch MI-Hillsdale MI-Williams OH-
404 AM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

...A line of strong thunderstorms will impact portions of eastern
Steuben, northwestern De Kalb, southeastern Branch, southwestern
Hillsdale and northwestern Williams Counties through 445 AM EDT...

At 403 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hamilton, or near Butler, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Edon around 415 AM EDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Montpelier and
Pioneer.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 69 in Indiana between mile markers 328 and 347, and near
mile marker 352.
 Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 146 and 156.
 Interstate 80 in Ohio between mile markers 0 and 13.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4200 8471 4176 8436 4171 8436 4171 8440
      4169 8440 4132 8507 4149 8518
TIME...MOT...LOC 0803Z 227DEG 48KT 4149 8497

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MCD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
446 AM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

MIZ081-OHZ001-002-210915-
Hillsdale MI-Fulton OH-Williams OH-
446 AM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

...An area ofstrong thunderstorms will impact portions of Hillsdale,
northern Williams and northwestern Fulton Counties through 515 AM
EDT...

At 445 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms near
Pioneer, or 8 miles northeast of Montpelier, moving northeast at 45
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Fayette around 455 AM EDT.

This includes Interstate 80 in Ohio between mile markers 5 and 18.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4171 8436 4171 8416 4152 8468 4180 8477
      4207 8477 4207 8437
TIME...MOT...LOC 0845Z 238DEG 41KT 4169 8453

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MCD