Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
341 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 340 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

Scattered showers will persist in spots through this afternoon,
with overall coverage increase this evening across the area.
Colder air will settle in tonight and persist into the weekend
with highs on Saturday only in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

Surface low already moving into NW Ohio with initial batch of
showers and storms accompanying it. Lagging cold front south of the
low was well depicted by fine line of showers and isolated storms
from Portland to Van Wert. Any severe threat will exist with this
line as well any storms ahead of it where temps remain in the
lower to middle 70s, with more stable 60 degree temps right behind
the line (Van Wert 64 vs Lima 74). Thus far storms have behaved
with window of opportunity likely done by 21 or 22Z with focus
then shifting to the impacts of second, stronger front and
arrival of the main upper level trough that will be deepening and
become negatively tilted over the area tonight. The increase in
forcing from the associated 120+kt jet streak is already apparent
with showers slowly trying to expand both in our NW areas as well
as back into IL. Expecting a fast uptick in precip coverage
heading into the 00-03Z period, possibly faster than current
depicted in the forecast. Concerns for heavy rain will be limited
by lower, but still sufficient PWATs around 1.25 inches or so and
progressive nature of the trough. As a result amounts should
generally be under a quarter inch with a few exceptions towards a
half inch possible.

Saturday will be rather chilly compared to recent weeks with highs
only in the 50s and a stiff NW wind, especially during the afternoon
as shot of colder air passes over the Great Lakes. This cold pool
may allow for the development of a few showers during the afternoon
hours across NE parts of the forecast area, warranting holding
onto slgt chc pops in that area.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

First half of the period tranquil with cool (more seasonable)
nights in the 40s and highs slowly moderating through the 60s and
even some 70s into the middle of next week. Upper level energy
south of Alaska will march slowly east over the weekend into next
week, starting to impact our area by Wednesday with chances for
showers. Blend of models worked out fine, so no changes made to
them.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 133 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

Frontal wave over northwest Ohio to continue tracking northeast.
Drier air to gradually work into northern Indiana from KSBN to
KFWA through the forecast period. Initial/tempo IFR conditions at
KFWA to start with richer moisture profile and proximity to
frontal wave. Then trend into fuel/alternate lower end MVFR by 20
UTC. Higher ceilings in comparison at KSBN farther removed from
low/deeper sub cloud dry air advection. Have return of showers
associated with frontal wave and passage of mid level deformation
zone late evening into tonight. Greater coverage over northeast
Indiana anticipated and held onto low end MVFR in showers at KFWA
through 09 UTC. Some higher gusts late in the forecast period with
greater mixing depth/strong pressure gradient flow between
departing frontal wave through northeast US and strong anticyclone
over northeast Texas.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Sunday for LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Fisher
SHORT TERM...Fisher
LONG TERM...Fisher
AVIATION...Murphy

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
345 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-161945-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
345 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021 /245 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ043-046-161945-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
345 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
319 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

OHZ015-016-024-025-152000-
Allen OH-Putnam OH-Van Wert OH-Paulding OH-
319 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Putnam, southeastern
Paulding, central Van Wert and northwestern Allen Counties through
400 PM EDT...

At 318 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Van Wert, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Delphos around 330 PM EDT.
  Ottoville around 335 PM EDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Kalida,
Continental, Ottawa and Glandorf.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4073 8458 4073 8461 4089 8471 4117 8434
      4117 8420 4097 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 234DEG 44KT 4083 8458

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

PBM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
506 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

OHZ025-152130-
Allen OH-
506 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Allen County
through 530 PM EDT...

At 506 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lima, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Bluffton.

This includes Interstate 75 between mile markers 121 and 141.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4064 8411 4066 8411 4066 8413 4077 8409
      4092 8388 4065 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 241DEG 25KT 4074 8402

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

NWS