Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
752 PM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 744 PM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021

Showers and thunderstorms will move through from west to east
overnight. A few strong to severe storms are possible through late
evening, but widespread severe weather is not expected. It will
be breezy tonight as cooler air arrives. Dry conditions are
expected for most of the area Tuesday and Wednesday before rain
chances return to the forecast thereafter.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021

Storms continue to work their way north-northeast through
Illinois in the vicinity of a 60-70 knot 500-mb jet. The severe
weather risk to our local area will be limited due to meager
instability. But, a narrow window of opportunity for locally
damaging wind gusts exists prior to sunset in far northwest
Indiana. This is as the strong jet noses in before CAPE subsides
for the night. Wind shear remains favorable for a couple of strong
storms. The severe weather risk is minimized east of US-31. Mid-
level lapse rates will limit the overall organization of
thunderstorms overnight.

Otherwise, for tonight, showers and thunderstorms will move from
west to east with coverage decreasing to only a few showers after
midnight. Rainfall totals will likely be less than a half inch for
most. It will be breezy with wind gusts of 25-30 mph.

In the wake of the cold front, lows will drop into the upper-50s in
the west. Highs tomorrow will generally be near 70 with westerly
wind gusts of 20-25 mph, especially through the early afternoon when
the pressure gradient relaxes.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021

Cold air advection quickly gives way to warmth, once again, by
Wednesday afternoon. This occurs as southwest flow on the western
edge of a subtropical ridge stream in. A sheared-out cold front
slips into our are very late in the day offering low shower chances
for far western Indiana. Rain chances improve overnight, with
perhaps little to no rain toward northwest Ohio. The day three
convective outlook seems overdone locally as the weak cold front
will not arrive until after dark. I suspect changes will be made.

The airmass behind this front is nearly unchanged as the parent low
wraps up, leaving behind a nearly unmodified synoptic pattern.
Instead, a new surface low lifts in from the southwest Thursday
night bringing additional rain chances. The parent trough axis moves
east of our area by Saturday morning ushering in a seasonably cool
airmass. Look for highs this weekend to reach only the low 60s
degrees or so, with lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 744 PM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021

VFR to MVFR conditions are expected for the first portion of the
TAF period, with intermittent drops to IFR possible during heavy
rain or thunderstorms. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected through
the latter portion of the period. The first line of rain and
storms is underway, with KSBN being impacted now and the initial
rain west of KFWA's doorstep. Thus far ceilings have been pretty
high, with 5-10kft reported even during storms. Visibility has
been dropping to around 3 miles within the heavier storms, so
stuck with that for the tempo groups. Behind the first line
showers and isolated storms are popping up, and there is a pretty
healthy line of convection over IL moving east. However, there is
a lot of uncertainty regarding how that will evolve over the next
few hours. So the best confidence is in the first portion of the
period-will handle any short-term trends with amendments. Expect
lower ceilings to move in later tonight into early Tue-with most
models suggesting anywhere from 700-2500 feet. Improvement will
come likely after 21z Tue.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...MCD

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
340 PM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021

INZ003-004-012>015-020-022-MIZ077-078-121945-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-White-
Cass IN-Berrien-Cass MI-
340 PM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021 /240 PM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
southwest Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low chance for severe thunderstorms this evening. Damaging
wind gusts are the greatest threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

LMZ043-046-121945-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
340 PM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A small craft advisory is in effect until Tuesday afternoon.

INZ005>009-016>018-023>027-032>034-MIZ079>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-
016-024-025-121945-
Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-
St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-
Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
340 PM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will move through tonight. Widespread
severe weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
849 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE WOLCOTT            40.75N 87.03W
10/11/2021                   WHITE              IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SEMI BLOWN OVER JUST EAST OF WOLCOTT ON
            US24. RELAYED BY WLFI. TIME ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR.

&&

LWF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
930 PM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021

INZ022-120215-
Cass IN-
930 PM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Cass County through
1015 PM EDT...

At 929 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Delphi, or 11 miles southwest of Logansport,
moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Logansport around 940 PM EDT.
  Royal Center around 945 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4056 8637 4069 8637 4069 8652 4074 8652
      4074 8658 4091 8658 4091 8617 4056 8617
TIME...MOT...LOC 0129Z 204DEG 48KT 4066 8653

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
938 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNE GRANGER           41.75N 86.13W
10/11/2021                   ST. JOSEPH         IN   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN.

0736 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW BARODA            41.98N 86.49W
10/11/2021                   BERRIEN            MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE FELL OVER ROAD AND ON A CAR THAT WAS
            DRIVING ON THE ROAD, REPORT OF MINOR
            INJURIES.

0731 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW NILES              41.87N 86.30W
10/11/2021                   BERRIEN            MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            3 FOOT DIAMETER TREE DOWN.

0731 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW NILES              41.87N 86.30W
10/11/2021                   BERRIEN            MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            3 FOOT DIAMETER TREE DOWN.

0728 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EAU CLAIRE              41.98N 86.31W
10/11/2021                   BERRIEN            MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            3 FOOT DIAMETER TREE DOWN, HIT BY CAR, NO
            INJURIES.

0728 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EAU CLAIRE              41.98N 86.31W
10/11/2021                   BERRIEN            MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            3 FOOT DIAMETER TREE DOWN, HIT BY CAR, NO
            INJURIES.

0720 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BUCHANAN                41.83N 86.37W
10/11/2021                   BERRIEN            MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM REPORTS SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN BUCHANAN -
            CAYUGA STREE/MAIN AREA.

0720 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 4 NW BRIDGMAN           41.99N 86.62W
10/11/2021  M43 MPH          LMZ043             MI   BUOY

            37 KT GUST RECORDED AT BUOY 45026 NEAR COOK
            NUCLEAR PLANT.

0711 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SOUTH BEND              41.68N 86.26W
10/11/2021                   ST. JOSEPH         IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LARGE BRANCH OVER ROADWAY.

0710 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE NORTH LIBERTY      41.57N 86.39W
10/11/2021                   ST. JOSEPH         IN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            ST. JOSEPH CO FIRE REPORTS TREES DOWN.

0710 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW ROSELAND           41.74N 86.29W
10/11/2021                   ST. JOSEPH         IN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            ST. JOSEPH CO FIRE REPORTS TREES DOWN.

0710 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WSW GULIVOIRE PARK    41.60N 86.28W
10/11/2021                   ST. JOSEPH         IN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            ST. JOSEPH CO FIRE REPORTS TREES DOWN.

0709 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BERRIEN SPRINGS         41.95N 86.34W
10/11/2021                   BERRIEN            MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ONTO ROAD AT CASS AND MARS STREET.
            CAR RAN INTO, BUT NO INJURIES.

0709 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BERRIEN SPRINGS         41.95N 86.34W
10/11/2021                   BERRIEN            MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ONTO ROAD AT CASS AND MARS STREET.
            CAR RAN INTO, BUT NO INJURIES.

0705 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE GEORGETOWN         41.76N 86.19W
10/11/2021                   ST. JOSEPH         IN   PUBLIC

            LARGE BRANCHES DOWN.

0701 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GRANGER                 41.74N 86.14W
10/11/2021                   ST. JOSEPH         IN   PUBLIC

            PICTURE SHARED ON TWITTER OF LARGE TREE LIMB
            BLOWN OFF BOTTOM OF A TREE. ROT VISIBLE.

0652 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NE SOUTH BEND         41.68N 86.25W
10/11/2021  M57 MPH          ST. JOSEPH         IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS 57 MPH WIND GUST RECORDED ON
            PERSONAL WEATHER STATION. NO DAMAGE OR POWER
            OUTAGES IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA KNOWN.

0635 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 ESE BREMS             41.33N 86.67W
10/11/2021  M54 MPH          STARKE             IN   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KOXI KNOX - STARKE CO. AIRPORT.

0623 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 N TOTO                41.29N 86.70W
10/11/2021  M75 MPH          STARKE             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT VIA SPOTTER NETWORK OF 74.6MPH WINDS.

0613 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NORTH JUDSON            41.22N 86.78W
10/11/2021                   STARKE             IN   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE DOWN BLOCKING HIGHWAY 10.

0613 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NORTH JUDSON            41.22N 86.78W
10/11/2021                   STARKE             IN   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE DOWN BLOCKING HIGHWAY 10.

0554 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WSW LAKE CICOTT       40.75N 86.56W
10/11/2021  M64 MPH          CASS               IN   PUBLIC

0547 PM     TSTM WND GST     CEDAR POINT             40.71N 86.77W
10/11/2021  M53 MPH          WHITE              IN   ASOS

            MONTICELLO, IN AIRPORT OBSERVATION (KMCX).

0542 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE WOLCOTT            40.75N 87.03W
10/11/2021                   WHITE              IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SEMI BLOWN OVER JUST EAST OF WOLCOTT ON
            US24. RELAYED BY WLFI. TIME ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR.

0542 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE WOLCOTT            40.75N 87.03W
10/11/2021                   WHITE              IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SEMI BLOWN OVER JUST EAST OF WOLCOTT ON
            US24. RELAYED BY WLFI. TIME ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR.

0542 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W CHALMERS            40.68N 86.96W
10/11/2021                   WHITE              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS LARGE TREE ESTIMATED
            3-4 FOOT DIAMETER BLOWN DOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1022 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 WSW ROCHESTER         41.05N 86.27W
10/11/2021  M51 MPH          FULTON             IN   MESONET

            PERSONAL WEATHER STATION OBSERVATION.

&&

MCD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1123 PM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021

INZ005-006-008-016-MIZ078-079-120400-
Lagrange IN-Noble IN-Kosciusko IN-Elkhart IN-St. Joseph MI-Cass MI-
1123 PM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of eastern Elkhart,
western Noble, northeastern Kosciusko, western Lagrange, eastern Cass
and St. Joseph Counties through MIDNIGHT EDT...

At 1122 PM EDT, the public reported strong thunderstorms along a line
extending from near Marcellus to near Warsaw. Movement was northeast
at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Public.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Marcellus around 1130 PM EDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Ligonier, Albion
and Topeka.

This includes Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 96 and
119.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4133 8540 4126 8585 4207 8593 4207 8547
TIME...MOT...LOC 0322Z 234DEG 27KT 4205 8589 4129 8582

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RTC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1153 PM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021

INZ008-017-018-025-026-120430-
Whitley IN-Noble IN-Huntington IN-Wells IN-Allen IN-
1153 PM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Allen,
southeastern Noble, Whitley, Huntington and north central Wells
Counties through 1230 AM EDT...

At 1152 PM EDT, automated sensors strong thunderstorms along a line
extending from near South Whitley to near La Fontaine. Movement was
northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Automated wind sensors.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Columbia City around 1155 PM EDT.
  Tri-lakes around 1200 AM EDT.
  Andrews around 1205 AM EDT.
  Huntington around 1210 AM EDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Kendallville and
Churubusco.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 469 near mile marker 3, and between mile markers 7 and 8.
 Interstate 69 in Indiana between mile markers 272 and 304.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4084 8564 4112 8561 4148 8522 4081 8525
      4065 8550 4065 8564
TIME...MOT...LOC 0352Z 205DEG 53KT 4114 8557 4069 8563

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RTC