Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
720 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 957 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

Hot and humid conditions will persist through this weekend. There
are chances for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms today
into tonight, with periodic shower and storm chances also in the
forecast Friday through early next week. Locally heavy rainfall
will be the primary threat in stronger storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

Differential heating zones on the periphery of a remnant/trapped MCV
will provide the main focus for widely scattered convection this
afternoon into early this evening. The best coverage is expected
southeast of US 24, though additional isolated activity will be
possible near a lake breeze/outflow in far nw IN and sw MI. Lacking
shear/flow through the column will limit the severe potential with
localized torrential rainfall the primary threat given very slow
storm motions and high atmospheric moisture content.

Shower/storm chances increase later tonight into Friday morning as
an Upper Midwest convective complex leads to renewed/weak theta-e
advection through the southern Great Lakes. The local area will
remain in an area of weak flow, southeast of the main moisture
plume and stronger low-mid level southwest flow focused through
the Western/Northern Great Lakes. This should keep activity more
scattered locally, with Friday afternoon heat indices once again
dependent on lingering cloud cover/precip.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

Hot and humid conditions are expected this weekend as upper level
ridging amplifies in advance of a shortwave ejecting east into the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. This should set up mainly dry
conditions with afternoon heat indices potentially making a run at
100 each day. Still can't rule out isolated convection, primarily
diurnally driven, near any outflows from upstream convection as
sfc dewpoints linger in the low-mid 70s.

The aforementioned shortwave will finally drop the primary frontal
zone into the area by Sunday night-Monday with slightly better
prospects for a round of convection, followed by temps and humidity
levels more common for late Aug/early Sept.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 720 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

SCT showers developing around the terminals this evening
associated with weak diurnal instability and subtle differential
heating boundaries in a relatively moist environment. Little/no
impact anticipated given VFR ceilings and limited support for
thunder. Will hold with just shower mention but can't entirely
rule out an isolated clap of thunder. This activity will dissipate
in the next few hours as diurnal instability wanes. However still
expecting additional convection early Fri morning as LLJ/theta-e
advection ramp back up. Coverage will not be high and confidence
in impacts to the terminals is low so will hold with just VCTS at
KSBN and VCSH at KFWA. Otherwise VFR conditions expected to
prevail through the period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...AGD

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
252 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-271900-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
252 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 /152 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into tonight. The
main threat will be torrential downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Heat index values will be in the middle 90s to around 100 Friday
through Sunday.

There are chances for thunderstorms Friday through this weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ043-046-271900-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
252 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There are low chances for thunderstorms Friday through this weekend.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
325 PM EDT THU AUG 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WAUSEON                 41.55N 84.14W
08/26/2021                   FULTON             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CORRECTS TIME FOR PREVIOUS TSTM WND DMG
            REPORT FROM WAUSEON. LIMBS BLOWN DOOWN. TREE
            DOWN ON FENCE.

&&

TH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
329 PM EDT THU AUG 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNW GALLUP            41.50N 84.16W
08/26/2021                   FULTON             OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE PORTION OF BARN ROOF BLOWN OFF AND
            INTO ADJACENT HOME.

&&

TH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
739 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

OHZ004-015-270015-
Defiance OH-Paulding OH-
739 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Defiance and northeastern Paulding Counties through 815 PM EDT...

At 739 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Defiance, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Defiance.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4117 8446 4134 8446 4134 8423 4117 8423
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 180DEG 9KT 4125 8434

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RTC