Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
820 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 820 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

More storms are likely at times tonight through Friday before
cooler and dry conditions prevail this weekend. High temperatures
will be around 90 Thursday with heat indices around 100.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

Convective complex currently moving exiting eastern CWA and will
to move east of the area shortly. HRRR seems to be best among the
HREF members in handling this early afternoon convection so will
lean that way for potential redevelopment tonight where ongoing
convection in WI still expected to intensify this afternoon in the
presence of highly sheared environment ahead of approaching mid-
level short wave. Still anticipate organization into a more linear
complex as it moves down into SE WI...NE IL...SW lwr MI...with
plenty of uncertainty in severe threat for our area after being
worked over this afternoon. In the wake of whats left of nocturnal
complex tonight will once again see very warm...humid airmass in
place and with decreasing clouds expect ample destabilization in
the daytime hours leading to convective initiation to our west and
tracking E/SE along baroclinic zone to potentially impact our
area late Thursday/Thursday night. Hot and humid conditions
expected again on Thursday with highs near 90 and dewpoints in the
low to mid 70s will have heat indices approaching 100 in SE CWA
so will consider having advisory in effect during the afternoon-
early evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

Forecast period to begin with final push of frontal boundary through
our area on Friday. Timing will dictate if any diurnal instability
can develop in SE CWA before front moves through. Latest trends from
deterministic models in line with SREF in early arrival for frontal
passage that should preclude any threat for strong to severe storms.
Canadian high pressure building in behind this front will bring much
less humid conditions to the region as dewpoints drop into the 50s
Saturday. Pleasant...dry weather continues into the beginning of
next week with precip chances arriving toward the end of the period
as remnants of TS Fred drift northward through the Appalacians.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 815 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

Next shortwave and associated weak frontal boundary will cross the
area tonight with another round of storms. Timing is becoming a
bit clearer but there is still some uncertainty based on
inconsistencies among latest CAM's. Also low confidence on
coverage and severity of any thunderstorms...particularly at KFWA
given late arrival and overall weak forcing. Will therefore
continue with just a VCTS mention. Slightly higher confidence at
KSBN and may introduce a TEMPO TSRA later. Some MVFR ceilings may
be possible behind the rain Thu morning but confidence is too low
to include with this package.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...JAL
AVIATION...AGD

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
823 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-130030-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
823 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 /723 PM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible again tonight with strong winds and
locally heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms are possible Thursday and Friday. The storms may be
accompanied by strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

LMZ043-046-130030-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
823 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms are possible Thursday and Friday. The storms may be
accompanied by strong winds.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1104 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

MIZ081-120330-
Hillsdale MI-
1104 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern
Hillsdale County through 1130 PM EDT...

At 1104 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Gregory to near Grass Lake to near
Litchfield. Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

These storms will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Hillsdale County, including the following locations... Jerome,
Somerset Center, Moscow and Somerset.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM EDT for
southeastern Michigan.

&&

LAT...LON 4192 8436 4207 8471 4207 8437
TIME...MOT...LOC 0304Z 300DEG 35KT 4251 8408 4220 8428 4210 8474

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

FISHER