Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
751 AM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 357 AM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

Scattered showers and storms will persist today as a series of
boundaries and weather systems impact the area. There should be a
break in the wet weather Sunday before more storms return to the
area Monday. High temperatures will be warm today and become even
warmer Sunday through Wednesday with highs in the vicinity of 90
and heat indices generally 95 to 105 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 357 AM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

A meso convective vorticity (system over Lake Michigan) was
moving south and had spread showers and storms overnight over most
of northern Indiana. More showers and storms had formed in the
vicinity of the center of this system over southern Lake Michigan
early this morning. Scattered showers and storms should persist
today associated with this system and along the outflow boundary
that should become oriented from northwest to southeast. Locally
heavy rainfall is likely, but severe storms are not expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 357 AM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

Hot and humid conditions are ahead early next week as upper level
ridging attempts to build north of the Ohio River in response to
an upper level trof upstream. Upper level systems will move east
into a very moist airmass that will be over the region early next
week. The GFS and EC appeared to have reconciled their differences
with mass fields through next Wednesday and have come into very
good agreement with each other concerning the evolutions of two
systems next week. Have favored likely chances for storms with the
arrival of a Monday system and also the arrival of a Wednesday
system. Precipitable water values will be very high during this
period and should generally range from 1.8 to 2.1 inches. GFS
model CAPEs top 4000 J/Kg during this period and indicates and
environment that may be capable of strong gusty winds accompanied
by heavy rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 740 AM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

Both TAF sites presently right on the edge of pockets of
showers/storms that continue to develop and move SE as combination
of MCV from overnight convection as well as leftover outflow
boundaries all interact. Main push in precip likely this morning,
but if any clearing occurs, then additional showers and storms are
possible this afternoon (scattered in nature). Have focused on
this morning for now.

IFR stratus has been developing from time to time at KSBN, likely
due to very moist low levels from the rainfall over the past 12
hours or so. Handled with temp for now, but will need to monitor
trends. After 00Z, bulk of weather concerns are likely to end,
although KSBN could see some fog/mist issues with all the rainfall
but for now will leave alone.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Skipper
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...Fisher

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
539 AM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-LMZ043-046-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-
002-004-005-015-016-024-025-080945-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
Berrien-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-
Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
539 AM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021 /439 AM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan, northwest Ohio and the nearshore waters of southeastern
Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are likely to produce gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall today into early tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms are possible each day Monday through Friday with the
best chances on Monday and Wednesday. The storms may be accompanied
by strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain.

Afternoon heat indices are expected rise to between 95 and 105
degrees Monday through Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1158 AM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

INZ018-071630-
Allen IN-
1158 AM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Allen
County through 1230 PM EDT...

At 1158 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Huntertown, or 7 miles south of Garrett, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Fort Wayne around 1205 PM EDT.
  Grabill around 1225 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Leo-cedarville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 469 between mile markers 25 and 30.
 Interstate 69 in Indiana between mile markers 314 and 322.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4121 8520 4127 8518 4127 8491 4107 8504
TIME...MOT...LOC 1558Z 296DEG 15KT 4123 8513

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

FISHER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
143 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

OHZ025-071830-
Allen OH-
143 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Allen
County through 230 PM EDT...

At 142 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Fort Shawnee, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Allen
County, including the following locations... Yoder, Westminster,
Rousculp and Harrod.

This includes Interstate 75 between mile markers 119 and 130.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4064 8411 4066 8411 4066 8416 4067 8422
      4068 8422 4069 8424 4079 8411 4078 8388
      4064 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 1742Z 283DEG 13KT 4070 8416

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

FISHER