Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
119 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 344 AM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021

More thunderstorms will develop today and bring the potential for
locally heavy rain and gusty winds. After a mainly dry Wednesday
and Wednesday night, more storms are likely from Thursday into
Saturday. Highs will be mainly in the 80s the next several days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1144 AM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021

With no cap in place and approaching upper level short wave,
showers and embedded thunderstorms have become widespread across
the area. To this point, coverage has been greatest across far
western portions of the area, just downstream of more impressive
sheared vort max entering the region. Column moisture is still
impressive on the order of 1.6 inch PWATs. The combination of this
deep moisture and slow storm motion/training potential will lead
to another afternoon of isolated heavy rainfall potential. Shear
profiles are on the meager side, although slightly stronger
effective shear profiles should reside across NW Ohio (25-30
knots). Cannot completely discount an isolated severe weather
threat with precip loading cores/isolated stronger downdrafts, but
heavy rain should be the primary threat. Not much change made to
previous forecast with PoPs winding down from west to east in the
23Z-01Z timeframe this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 344 AM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021

Showers were already developing ahead of an upper level system
over IL with plenty of moisture available ahead of this system.
Given relatively low CAPE/instability values and limited shear but
high precipitable water values, storms should stay below severe
levels, but locally heavy rainfall is likely. Any flooding should
be limited to urban areas and flood prone low-lying locations.
Runoff over rural areas continues to be low and will not likely be
a flood threat today. Numerous observation sites in northern
Indiana have already recorded over 10 inches of rain since June
5th with very limited river flooding the past several weeks.
Precipitation should end by midnight as the upper level system
lifts north.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 344 AM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021

Another upper level system will move southeast from the Upper
Midwest into the forecast area and bring another round of showers
and storms starting Thursday and continuing Saturday.
Environmental soundings for this event will be similar to the
soundings today with limited shear and instability, but high
precipitable water values and will support heavy rain and gusty
winds. SPC Day3 indicates this marginal severe storm risk starting
Thursday. Some question how many lingering showers and storms
will be in the area Saturday with the potential for a wave to
develop along the front. Kept chances for rain highest south/over
areas south of Ft Wayne.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021

Impactful weather conditions for the terminals remain confined to
the first 4 hours of this TAF issuance. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will impact the terminals through roughly
22z. When storms move over the terminal, expect degraded
visibilities and lowered ceilings into the IFR range due to
torrential rainfall. The trough which is responsible for
triggering this convection should move east of the terminals by
22-00z which will bring a close to any addition precip chances.
Conditions should then return to VFR and persist through the
remainder of this TAF period. One item of note, should sufficient
clearing develop overnight, ground fog could develop towards
sunrise. Confidence at this point is too low to include.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Marsili
SYNOPSIS...Skipper
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...CM

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
513 AM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-140915-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
513 AM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021 /413 AM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy rain may bring local
flooding of urban and low-lying areas today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms with strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall may bring
local flooding of urban and low-lying areas Thursday into Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ043-046-140915-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
513 AM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible today that will bring
hazardous conditions to small craft.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible Thursday into Friday that
will bring hazardous conditions to small craft.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
241 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021

INZ006-007-MIZ079-080-131915-
Lagrange-Steuben-Branch-St. Joseph-
241 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN STEUBEN...EASTERN
LAGRANGE...SOUTHEASTERN ST. JOSEPH AND SOUTHWESTERN BRANCH
COUNTIES...

At 240 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Lagrange,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lagrange, Fawn River, Wolcottville, Burr Oak, Gilead, Orland, Flint,
Brighton, Mongo, East Gilead, Lake Gauge, Nevada Mills, Brushy
Prairie, Woodruff, Adams Lake, Oliver Lake, Howe, Lake James, Plato
and Ontario.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 69 in Indiana between mile markers 355 and 356.
 Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 121 and 145.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Rainfall rates of 1 to 1.5 inches per hour are
expected. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4153 8536 4166 8552 4189 8528 4173 8496
TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 230DEG 20KT 4165 8536

HAIL...0.25
WIND...40MPH

PBM

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