Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
321 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

Showers and thunderstorms are expected through this evening. A
severe thunderstorm capable of damaging wind gusts is possible. This
severe threat will diminish tonight, through showers may linger.
More wet weather on Tuesday.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

The warm front is advancing nicely through the area at this hour.
Showers, and a couple thunderstorms, are moving through in its wake.
The upper-level support for the most robust storms is toward
Illinois, lifting north. Our area is expected to become more
unstable within the next few hours which should promote a second
round of showers and storms. This second round could feature
stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts. Overall, the
environment to our south which is moving northward, appears
conducive for the aformentioned damaging wind gusts. But,
instability (if these clouds stick around from neighboring
convection) and upper-level support (which is best to the west)
remain the weak points of this setup.

Showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish overnight and the
severe weather threat is expected to end by 10PM to midnight.

As the upper-level low lifts north tomorrow, additional showers and
storms are expected, most numerous toward NW Indiana.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

Any lingering showers and storms from Tuesday afternoon will
diminish overnight as the trough aloft finally exit. I am still
eyeing Wednesday to possibly be our dry day of the week. This is as
we find ourselves between the departing trough to our east and the
next storm system to our west. Southeast flow in the low-levels is
nearly parallel to the Gulf Coast, so moisture transport is poor
locally.

Wednesday night, an MCS likely moves from west to east over the
North-Central Plains, perhaps brining some leftovers to northern
parts of our ear early Thursday morning. A trough in its wake could
spark showers and storms for us later in the day, but the trend has
been for this trough to 1) be weaker and 2) farther north. As such,
the forecast might trend drier in the coming days.

As a result of the changes in the Thursday trough, we now turn to
Friday for the next trough to move through. As mentioned yesterday,
there is some concern for a stationary front to be left behind
through the weekend, but it seems to be that incoming subsidence
aloft to our north could work to suppresses this front to our south
for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 113 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

Warm front pushing northward through the region will be the
primary focus for initial convection. Post frontal airmass is
quite humid and CAPE values continue to increase. With clearing
occurring...expect to see deeper convection developing and
expanding in coverage through the afternoon. Best shear over the
southern third of the CWA into central Indiana and storm level
flow will favor a disruptive and chaotic boundary layer through
Tuesday morning with numerous outflow boundaries triggering
additional convection.

Overnight with the warm and humid air mass...could see some
additional patchy fog formation...however limited to lowland areas
and not a widespread impact to air operations.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Brown
SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Lewis

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
406 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-130815-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
406 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 /306 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon.
The primary threat is damaging wind.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ043-046-130815-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
406 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
334 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

INZ015-022-122015-
Cass-Fulton-
334 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN FULTON AND
NORTHEASTERN CASS COUNTIES...

At 333 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Logansport,
moving north at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4070 8647 4101 8647 4100 8617 4070 8617
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 168DEG 17KT 4079 8628

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

LEWIS