Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
236 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1247 AM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

Chances for showers and showers and storms continue into tonight
though the chance for severe weather wanes this evening. Another
chance for showers and storms exists Thursday especially south of
US-24. Then, Friday represents a brief reprieve from the
unsettled weather before the rain chances return this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

A low pressure system pushes from Illinois into Southern Michigan
this afternoon into tonight. Out in the warm sector where our area
resides, showers and storms are expected to pop up and boundaries
like outflow boundaries or convergent boundaries could serve as foci
for them. Effective shear most conducive to sustaining severe
thunderstorms appears to reside north of the Toll Road today, but 15-
25 kts of effective shear does look to reside across the area. This
combined with 1000 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE will allow for a chance for
mainly pop-up showers and storms this afternoon. Should the area of
DCAPE between 800 and 1100 J/kg line with where thunderstorms form
that would be conducive to damaging wind gusts. Some moisture is
located in the low levels, but PWATs are around seasonably
average for this time of year. With all of this in mind, some
storms could become strong to severe where the ingredients line up
nicely, leaving damaging from wet microbursts and locally heavy
rain as the main threats, especially if training storms occur.

Weak mid level lapse rates, waning CAPE and minimal flow should
allow thunderstorms to dissipate a couple hours after sunset
tonight. The still-humid airmass will continue to keep lows in the
mid 60s to around 70 degrees, cooler near the lake.

The front continues moving into the area during the overnight hours
and effectively removes the chance for heavier showers and storms
closer to the lake for Thursday and keeps those areas cooler than
the last few days. High temps near the lake may struggle to reach 80
degrees where northwest winds bring the cooler air in. A trough
pinwheeling in behind the front will help to set off a few more
showers and storms on Thursday. The speed that the front makes it
through the area will help to determine where the storms form, but
feel south of US-24 has the greatest chance to see a thunderstorm.
1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE resides in that area and there is some DCAPE
to work with as well. Similar moisture content resides in the
soundings to today so could see more wet microbursts forming in that
area. South of the front, expect high temperatures to be cooler than
today, but still warm reaching the low to possibly mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

Height rises Thursday night signal a change to drier weather for
Friday as high pressure comes in. Highs only reach the upper 70s to
around 80 degrees with the cooler air around. However, this reprieve
is brief and rain enters back into the forecast Friday night and
Saturday as a clipper-like system, accompanied by a following high
pressure system and attached to the left exit region of the upper
jet, moves in. Following this system, another system deepens over IA
and IL and tracks into south-central Canada by Monday afternoon.
Models continue to advertise only weak to modest CAPE during this
period likely limiting coverage and severity of thunderstorms.
Increased moisture flux and above normal PWATs along with times of a
moist column and large scale lift will contribute to moderate
rainfall totals. Even still, models contain lacking consistency on
the clipper storm's track and when the most rain falls across the
area, Saturday or Sunday.

After that system tracks into Canada, the front associated with that
system moves through Tuesday, though again, without instability and
a much drier atmospheric column, really only a stray shower is
possible. Will restrict PoPs on both Tues and Wed to 30 percent at
most.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

Scattered convection is developing this afternoon and will
continue into the evening as weak ascent overspreads an
increasingly moist and unstable airmass. Brief gusty winds and
IFR/MVFR restrictions will be possible with any convection. A cold
front then works through or near KSBN by later tonight with low
stratus potentially building in. Some fog may also be possible at
both sites, but FWA ceilings should stay MVFR.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Roller
LONG TERM...Roller
AVIATION...Steinwedel/Cobb

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1110 AM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

INZ005>009-016>018-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-
081515-
Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
1110 AM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon with some strong
storms possible. While the probability of widespread severe weather
is low, isolated to scattered damaging winds are possible with the
stronger storms. Locally heavy rain and dangerous lightning can also
be expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a chance for thunderstorms Saturday through Tuesday but the
probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ003-004-012>015-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077-081515-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-White-
Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-
Berrien-
1110 AM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021 /1010 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
southwest Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
producing locally heavy rain and dangerous lightning. However the
probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a chance for thunderstorms Saturday through Tuesday but the
probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ043-046-081515-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
1110 AM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
producing locally heavy rain and dangerous lightning. However the
probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a chance for thunderstorms Saturday through Tuesday but the
probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Wave heights reaching 2 to 4 feet and developing rip currents
will have a moderate swim risk on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
340 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0129 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WNW WESTMINSTER       40.70N 84.02W
07/07/2021  M45 MPH          ALLEN              OH   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KAOH LIMA.

&&

MCD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
342 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DESHLER                 41.21N 83.90W
07/07/2021                   HENRY              OH   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: 3-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN;
            POWER POLES BROKEN.

&&

PBM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
343 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

INZ023-024-072015-
Miami-Wabash-
343 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WABASH AND CENTRAL MIAMI
COUNTIES...

At 342 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Peru, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Peru, Wabash, Wells, Erie, Roann, Lagro, Chili, Stockdale,
Richvalley, Servia, Lincolnville, Urbana, Santa Fe, Speicherville,
Treaty, Peoria and Somerset.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Northern Indiana.

&&

LAT...LON 4073 8613 4100 8594 4084 8564 4076 8564
      4065 8585 4065 8586 4064 8586 4061 8593
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 216DEG 20KT 4075 8596

HAIL...0.25
WIND...50MPH

CM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
357 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

INZ005-MIZ078-079-072030-
Elkhart-St. Joseph-Cass-
357 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ELKHART...
SOUTHEASTERN CASS AND ST. JOSEPH COUNTIES...

At 357 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Three Rivers to near Constantine to
near Simonton Lake. Movement was east at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Elkhart, Three Rivers, Simonton Lake, Constantine, Bristol, White
Pigeon, Centreville, Union, Nottawa, Mottville, Mendon, Moore Park,
Klinger Lake, Fishers Lake, Jones, Corey Lake, Shavehead Lake,
Howardsville, Wasepi and Clear Lake.

This includes Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 89 and
108.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Northern Indiana.

&&

LAT...LON 4206 8541 4189 8542 4176 8559 4176 8566
      4170 8567 4173 8604 4187 8583 4205 8571
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 266DEG 15KT 4198 8572 4188 8573 4176 8590

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

CM