Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
602 AM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 511 AM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist through the
weekend, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. The best
chances will be on Wednesday and Thursday. It will remain warm
and humid, with highs in the 80s. Expect areas of dense fog on
Lake Michigan through Wednesday morning, becoming patchy at times.
Patchy fog is possible on land this morning and again tonight into
Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 511 AM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

Issued a marine dense fog advisory for both nearshore zones for
today into Wednesday morning as temps/dewpoints are in the upper 60s
and low 70s, and winds are calm or very light out of the south-
southeast. Current muggy airmass is fairly saturated from yesterdays
rain, and combined with the cool waters of Lake Michigan and
additional rain chances today, think we we'll see at least some
patchy dense fog through the day, becoming more widespread tonight.
There is a little bit of patchy fog on land as well, and expect this
to diminish this morning. Mid to high level cloud cover appears to
be limiting its development, so opted for no SPS/headline on that
for now.

Otherwise, the main focus again is the potential for showers and
thunderstorms today. It was a challenging forecast as far as trying
to pin down convection timing and location (as is always the case in
the summer)-and there are a couple of features that could trigger
greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms. First, the MCV
spawned from convection to our SW overnight (as seen in water vapor
imagery) has lifted into the LOT/IWX/ILX forecast areas, and kicked
off a few showers/sprinkles across NW IN/northern Lower MI and along
our southern forecast area borders in IN. Don't really expect any
thunder until we get some daytime heating and more prominent
instability. As the feature washes out and lifts northward, we'll
see the upper level low lift from the central plains into southern
IL. This will be another source of lift. Given better forcing today
expect better precipitation potential, so I have likely pops and
chances for thunderstorms this afternoon. As usual, the hi-res
models and CAMS suggest a variety of different scenarios-but I felt
the most reasonable solution was the FV3-NSSL-which has more
isolated/scattered showers this morning (both south of US 30 and far
north in MI), then as things heat up the coverage will increase
along US 30 and lift northward through the period-sort of closing in
on a gap in the center. There may be somewhat of a lull tonight in
between features-as the upper low will gradually shift over our CWA
by Wed AM-but maintained chance/slight chance pops through the night
given the approaching forcing aloft over a juiced airmass (PWATS of
150-175% of normal). As they say, upper level low-look out below.
Don't expect severe weather today or tonight given the lack of wind
shear and paltry mid-level lapse rates, but slow moving storms could
produce heavy rainfall at times. Patchy fog is possible on land
again tonight with the moist airmass in place. High temperatures
will be in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 511 AM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

|Confidence remains medium to high with the potential for rain and
thunderstorms on Wed/Thu as the upper low centers overhead. Have 50
to 75 percent pops across a majority of the CWA during the afternoon
hours on both days, where we see greater instability. Still, lapse
rates are around 5-6C/Km, with weak flow aloft and thus don't expect
anything as far as severe concerns go. High temps will be in the low
to mid 80s on both days.

Thursday night into Friday the upper low starts to lose its battle
with the ridging and becomes an open wave that gets absorbed into
the zonal to cyclonic flow to our northeast. The corresponding
surface low will drift from our CWA to the eastern seaboard by
Friday evening, exiting our area. We'll see winds shift to the
northwest on Friday and a diminishing trend to the precipitation by
late evening.

After a break in precipitation chances Friday night into early
Saturday, we'll see chances once again in the afternoon as a cold
front stemming from low pressure drifting through the Canadian
Prairies moves through. Aloft, flow is slightly ridged to zonal
with us on the Periphery again. Depending on which model is
correct, the timing could be a little delayed. Additionally-there
are great discrepancies in the upper level pattern by Sunday
/Monday-with the ECMWF suggesting an upper level trough (chances
for rain) and the GFS a ridge (dry). With lower confidence in this
period-I kept low chance pops in for mainly the afternoon hours
for the weekend and continuing into Monday. High temperatures
Fri/Sat make another run for the mid-upper 80s, then drop into the
low-mid 80s behind the front Sun-Tue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

Mainly VFR this period. Weak yet sufficient low level moisture flux
within H85 based theta-e ridge had popped a few showers inbetween
the terminals this morning ahead of upstream convective leftover
near KHUF. That feature will continue newd yet slow and likely spawn
new showers and perhaps an isold storm mid aftn invof KSBN and a
shower near KFWA mid morning. However a more muted cams based signal
exits invof KFWA this aftn where deeper mixing erodes better theta-e
ridge aloft and background synoptic scale forcing is weaker in wake
of upstream wave passage. That situ should improve by evening in
response to more formidable sw lifting out of ne AR/se MO and have
kept with prior delayed MVFR tempo mention there.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...T

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1149 AM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-091600-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
1149 AM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021 /1049 AM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There are chances for thunderstorms today and tonight. Severe
weather is not expected, but heavy rain is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are possible through the weekend, with the best
potential during the afternoon on Wednesday and Thursday. Severe
weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ043-046-091600-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
1149 AM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Dense Fog Advisory.

There are chances for thunderstorms today and tonight. Severe
weather is not expected, but heavy rain is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Dense Fog Advisory.

Thunderstorms are possible through the weekend, with the best
potential during the afternoon on Wednesday and Thursday. Severe
weather is not expected at this time. Boaters may encounter locally
higher winds and waves near any thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1158 AM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

INZ006-008-081630-
Lagrange-Noble-
1158 AM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN NOBLE AND
SOUTHWESTERN LAGRANGE COUNTIES...

At 1157 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Topeka, or
near Ligonier, moving east at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ligonier, Topeka, Honeyville, Emma and Cosperville.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4147 8547 4148 8565 4152 8566 4159 8566
      4163 8550
TIME...MOT...LOC 1557Z 255DEG 6KT 4155 8557

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...40MPH

CM