Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
749 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 155 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

A round of showers and thunderstorms will move through later this
evening, with some showers continuing Tuesday. Wednesday will be
dry but cool. Unsettled conditions with below normal temperatures
will then prevail through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 155 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

Morning rain effectively stabilized the lower atmosphere with
overcast low clouds persisting this afternoon. Farther west, an
MCS is developing over Iowa in association with a surface low and
its attendant fronts. This will travel eastward this evening,
reaching northwest Indiana around 10 PM with a north-south
oriented line of showers and thunderstorms. Surface instability is
lacking, but there is enough elevated instability and shear for a
few stronger cells as the low tracks near the Michigan border.
DCAPE is also low with good saturation through the mid-levels, so
the biggest threats will be locally heavy rain and wind gusts
around 40 mph. This complex of storms will weaken as it moves east
and become less organized, with mainly scattered showers expected
by the time it reaches Ohio overnight.

A strong, southern stream shortwave will be moving up from the
southwest into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. However, the cold front
and stable air that will trail tonight's MCS should hold most of
the convection south of the forecast area. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will try to advect north, but are expected
to stay south of US 30, and severe storms are not anticipated in
the area.

Breezy northwest winds are also in store for Tuesday, keeping
temperatures below normal, especially near Lake Michigan.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 155 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

There could be some lingering showers Tuesday night as the upper
trough swings through the region, but then cooler and drier air
will move in behind the cold front, and temperatures will drop
into the 40s. Dry zonal flow will be over the area on Wednesday,
but breezy northwesterly winds will keep temperatures below normal
with highs mainly in the 50s.

Precipitation chances return Thursday afternoon/evening as a quick
northern stream shortwave moves through with limited moisture.
Northwest flow aloft will then bring another weak wave through
with a chance for cold core showers Friday. A more developed
system will move into the northern plains on Saturday, and
isentropic lift ahead of a warm front is forecast to bring more
rain late Saturday into Sunday. The cold front is not expected to
arrive until Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 747 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

Mesoscale convective vortex over northeast Illinois continues to
drive thunderstorms across northeast Illinois. Downstream mixed
layer convective inhibition should allow gradual decay as line
sweeps across northern Indiana overnight. Timing per CAMS and
extrapolation places TSRA at KSBN around 03 UTC. Expect line to
diminish with just tempo showers at KFWA 05-09 UTC. Post frontal
mixing/saturation leading to IFR stratus ceilings to develop late
tonight with gradual improvement by midday Tuesday.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Cobb
SHORT TERM...Cobb
LONG TERM...Cobb
AVIATION...Murphy

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
501 AM EDT Mon May 3 2021

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-040915-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
501 AM EDT Mon May 3 2021 /401 AM CDT Mon May 3 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight mainly over northern
Indiana and southern Michigan. No severe weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ043-046-040915-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
501 AM EDT Mon May 3 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1046 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

INZ020-040330-
White-
1046 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WHITE COUNTY...

At 1045 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of
Remington, or 7 miles east of Lochiel, moving east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Monticello, Brookston, Wolcott, Reynolds, Chalmers, Burnettsville,
Badger Grove, Smithson, Golden Hill, Indiana Beach, Norway, Idaville
and Cedar Point.

This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 185 and 198.

&&

LAT...LON 4076 8710 4085 8658 4074 8659 4074 8675
      4073 8676 4072 8675 4071 8676 4070 8676
      4069 8675 4068 8676 4068 8674 4067 8675
      4066 8678 4056 8677 4057 8710
TIME...MOT...LOC 0245Z 274DEG 37KT 4065 8712

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

PBM