Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
323 PM EDT Wed Apr 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Wed Apr 21 2021

Scattered snow showers are expected into this evening with times
of rain, graupel, and some small hail possibly mixing in. Lows
tonight will once again be well below freezing before warmer
weather returns Thursday into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Wed Apr 21 2021

With a trough overhead, an area of vorticity swings through the area
 this afternoon. Surface temperatures that warm into the 30s with a
few sites reaching 40 degrees will collaborate with anomalous 850
Ts between -6 and -10C to allow for some nearly dry adiabatic
lapse rates up to 4 km this afternoon. Showers will be able to
produce snow and some rain at times, but some graupel or hail is
possible with the strong lapse rates. Some gusty winds 30 to 40
mph could be brought down to the surface in some of the stronger
cells in this sort of squally set up with quick alterations in
visibility also possible. Also could see some thunder before
sunset.

The final spoke in the trough pushes through late tonight/early
Thursday as high pressure edges in, but moisture will be dissipating
ahead of that so will keep the area free of precip during that time.
With the drying out trend tonight and the cold air aloft, another
night with below freezing temperatures is expected as temperatures
drop down into the 20s. For what it's worth, we're forecasting a low
tonight of 27 for FWA that would tie the record low of 27 set on
1986. Areas west of IN-15 are expected to be a little warmer and so
have SBN at 28 degrees as opposed to its record low of 20 from
1936.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Wed Apr 21 2021

Temperatures are able to recover Thursday as some warm air advection
begins to come in on the northern and western side of an approaching
high pressure system and 850 Ts warm to -2C. Even still,
temperatures are projected at about 10 degrees below normal. High
pressure and increased ridging should also serve to keep Thursday
dry. Continued warming ensues on Friday with a warm front moving
through the area. Believe it or not, but highs are expected to reach
around 60 degrees on Friday with mixing up to 850 mb where
temperatures around 0C reside.

Precipitation moves back into the picture initially as a result of a
warm advection wing out in front of the approaching low pressure
system Friday night. Models show varying degrees of columnar
moisture within this wing and area of isentropic lift, but will hold
onto a 15-20% 6hr PoP in our west for 18z to 00z time frame
Friday evening. Will then slowly increase PoPs trending towards
the best chance for precipitation being during the Saturday, but
shower chances Friday night may be more of the spotty nature. As
the low arrives, it contains a good amount of upper level support,
but the moisture appears to be lacking with the track of the low
to our south. Initial estimates look to bring 0.5-0.75" of rain
with the highest amounts in southern areas from this system.

High pressure follows Saturday's system for Sunday starting another
dry spell into Tuesday night. Temperatures trend warmer during this
time span reaching the low 70s for Monday and, with a warm front
moving through, the 80s for Tuesday, which is 15 to 20 degrees above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 102 PM EDT Wed Apr 21 2021

Main focus this afternoon will be on intense snow showers as an
upper level vort max swings through and lapse rates continue to
steepen. Some brief instances of graupel/small hail and wind
gusts 20-25 knots will also be possible with stronger cells. The
activity should be scattered with brief IFR/LIFR restrictions
possible, especially at KFWA 19-22z. VFR/quiet otherwise behind
this wave tonight into tomorrow morning.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Thursday for INZ003>009-
     012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

MI...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT Thursday for MIZ077>081.

OH...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT Thursday for OHZ001-002-004-005-
     015-016-024-025.

LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel/Roller
SHORT TERM...Roller
LONG TERM...Roller
AVIATION...Steinwedel

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
931 AM EDT WED APR 21 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0931 AM     SNOW             LITCHFIELD              42.05N 84.75W
04/21/2021  M1.6 INCH        HILLSDALE          MI   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
939 AM EDT WED APR 21 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 AM     SNOW             HUNTINGTON              40.88N 85.50W
04/21/2021  M4.1 INCH        HUNTINGTON         IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WEIGHT OF SNOW CAUSED TREE TO FALL ONTO CAR.
            ALSO 3-4 REPORTS OF TREES/LIMBS DOWN
            THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1109 AM EDT WED APR 21 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     SNOW             VAN WERT                40.87N 84.58W
04/21/2021  M5.2 INCH        VAN WERT           OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MCS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1155 AM EDT WED APR 21 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     SNOW             PORTLAND                40.43N 84.98W
04/21/2021  M3.0 INCH        JAY                IN   COCORAHS

1100 AM     SNOW             1 N HARTFORD CITY       40.47N 85.37W
04/21/2021  M4.5 INCH        BLACKFORD          IN   COCORAHS

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1239 PM EDT Wed Apr 21 2021

INZ003-004-012>015-020-022-MIZ077-211730-
La Porte-St.
Joseph-Cass-White-Marshall-Fulton-Starke-Pulaski-Berrien-
1239 PM EDT Wed Apr 21 2021

...Showers with Small Hail to Move Through Northwest Indiana...

Scattered showers will continue to move across northwestern Indiana
over the next few hours. These showers have a history of producing
small hail that has coated the ground and made roads slippery and
are expected to continue to do so as they continue eastward.
Visibility is also expected to vary markedly within these showers.
If planning to drive, slow down and leave plenty of distance between
the car in front of you.

At 1234 PM EDT/1134 AM CDT/, radar indicated showers were located
along a line extending from 13 miles northwest of Long Beach to 6
miles north of Otterbein. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Locations impacted include...
South Bend, Michigan City, La Porte, Westville, Monticello, Buchanan,
Knox, Winamac, Trail Creek, Walkerton, North Liberty, New Buffalo,
New Carlisle, Monon, North Judson, Three Oaks, Brookston, Kingsford
Heights, Culver and Long Beach.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 185 and 198.
 Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 38 and 72.
 Interstate 94 in Indiana between mile markers 33 and 45.
 Interstate 94 in Michigan between mile markers 0 and 14.

&&

LAT...LON 4084 8710 4084 8699 4091 8699 4091 8693
      4175 8693 4193 8665 4189 8632 4070 8641
      4069 8652 4074 8653 4074 8675 4056 8677
      4056 8709
TIME...MOT...LOC 1634Z 291DEG 24KT 4189 8703 4058 8710

HAIL...0.25
WIND...30MPH

CR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
330 PM EDT Wed Apr 21 2021

INZ005-006-008-016-017-024-025-212000-
Wabash-Lagrange-Whitley-Noble-Huntington-Kosciusko-Elkhart-
330 PM EDT Wed Apr 21 2021

...A SNOW SQUALL WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ELKHART...NORTHEASTERN
WABASH...NOBLE...WHITLEY...NORTHERN HUNTINGTON...EASTERN KOSCIUSKO
AND SOUTHWESTERN LAGRANGE COUNTIES...

At 329 PM EDT, a snow squall was located along a line extending from
near Millersburg to near North Manchester. Movement was east at 30
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this squall.

Locations impacted include...
Goshen, Huntington, Warsaw, Kendallville, Columbia City, North
Manchester, Winona Lake, Ligonier, Syracuse, Tri-lakes, Albion,
Churubusco, South Whitley, Rome City, Topeka, North Webster, Markle,
Pierceton, Millersburg and Benton.

This includes Interstate 69 in Indiana between mile markers 284 and
291.

Visibilities will drop quickly to less than a quarter of a mile in
this squall.

Use extra caution if you must travel into or through this dangerous
snow squall. Rapid changes in visibility and potentially slick roads
may lead to accidents. Consider delaying travel until the squall
passes your location.

&&

LAT...LON 4101 8580 4161 8581 4149 8524 4126 8526
      4126 8531 4118 8531 4118 8534 4077 8534
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 292DEG 24KT 4148 8569 4104 8573

Brown