Special Marine Warning 8, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
216 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 216 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

Developing thunderstorms northwest this afternoon will expand east
and south through evening before ending overnight. Some could be
severe with damaging winds north of highway 24. Otherwise dry, warm
and less humid conditions return Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 216 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

Prefrontal trough extending from wrn MI into ern IL and becoming the
focus for renewed/vigorous convective development by 20Z nw zones nw
IN - srn MI. This likely to composite in with additional storms 23-
00Z along lagging sfc trough and then sag swd across the cwa this
evening. Late aftn/early evening storms hold a continued threat for
damaging winds where most robust multi-cell clusters track.
Otherwise trailing/weak sfc front will drop toward the OH river
overnight with little fanfare as upstream anticyclone across the
plains settles into the mid MS valley Sunday. Good post frontal
moisture scour Sunday will counter strong subsidence warming so
while some 90s likely apparent temps will lag as dewpoints mix out
into the low 60s in the aftn.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 216 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

Dry, warm and tranquil through Wed as sfc ridge settles into the TN
valley. Continued stout low level thermal ridge in place stemming
from hot plains upper ridge will yield warm temps with 90s a good
bet again.

Next vigorous nrn stream sw driving through Hudson Bay late period
will release another weakening sfc frontal zone sewd across the
lakes/OH valley late Wed into Thu with accompanying showers/storms
then.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

Some nuisance showers and eventually thunderstorms continue to form
in advance of an approaching front towards this evening. These may
be able to briefly drop VIS down into IFR and CIGs into MVFR, but
they are moving quick enough and come accompanied by relatively
little confidence on exact placement that will have to handle that
with future amendments down the road. Greater confidence comes with
the arrival of the front that showers and storms will move through
along, again with MVFR conditions with the potential to become IFR,
should the storms move over the airport. Storm intensity likely
wanes as they move south and east and we get farther into the night
so will not bring FWA's conditions down into IFR until we get closer
to storm initiation time.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...Roller

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
222 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

INZ003>009-012>017-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-251000-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Berrien-Cass MI-
St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-
222 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021 /122 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely this evening. Severe storms with damaging
winds are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

INZ018-020-022>027-032>034-OHZ004-005-015-016-024-025-251000-
Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-
Blackford-Jay-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
222 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible tonight but the severe weather risk is
low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ043-046-251000-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
222 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely this evening and may produce locally higher
winds and waves.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
237 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

INZ009-OHZ004-241900-
De Kalb-Defiance-
237 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN DE KALB AND
NORTHWESTERN DEFIANCE COUNTIES...

At 236 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Auburn, moving
east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Auburn, Garrett, Hicksville, St. Joe, Concord, Newville, Altona,
Moore, Butler Center, Saint Joe, Saint Johns and Spencerville In
Dekalb County.

This includes Interstate 69 in Indiana between mile markers 323 and
331.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4127 8469 4127 8517 4139 8514 4143 8468
      4142 8464
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 265DEG 33KT 4132 8505

HAIL...0.25
WIND...30MPH

MCS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
313 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

OHZ004-241945-
Defiance-
313 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT DEFIANCE COUNTY...

At 312 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Hicksville,
moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Defiance, Hicksville, Farmer, Ney, Evansport, Jewell, Brunersburg,
Mark Center and The Bend.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4125 8477 4142 8480 4143 8423 4126 8423
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 265DEG 31KT 4134 8469

HAIL...0.25
WIND...30MPH

MCS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
344 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

OHZ004-015-242015-
Defiance-Paulding-
344 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT DEFIANCE AND NORTHEASTERN
PAULDING COUNTIES...

At 344 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles east of
Hicksville, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Defiance, Ney, Cecil, Jewell, Brunersburg, Mark Center, Ayersville,
The Bend and Arthur.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4123 8465 4138 8463 4141 8423 4118 8423
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 271DEG 23KT 4128 8458

HAIL...0.25
WIND...30MPH

MCS