Special Marine Warning 3, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
734 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 733 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will continue moving from
southwest to northeast this evening. A lull in the shower and
storm chances is expected for a time late this evening and early
overnight, but more showers and storms are expected overnight in
association with an approaching cold front. Cooler and drier air
will then settle in Monday through the middle of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

The main focus remains on the severe weather threat late this
afternoon into this evening. A MCV and associated cluster of
convection, located across ne MO, will be the main feature of
interest as it tracks into the local area by this time, with
convection growing upscale in the vicinity of a lingering sfc
boundary oriented w-e just north of US 30. An increasingly
moist/unstable boundary layer under strengthening southwest
flow/shear support SPC's higher probs for severe storms. Initial
storm evolution by 21-23z may favor discrete storms (with HP
supercell structures), likely transitioning to broken line segments
or an organized bowing segment. All hazards (hail/wind/tornado)
remain on the table as hodographs enlarge and wind fields
strengthen. Large hail and isolated tornadoes will likely be the
primary threats to start, then trending toward damaging winds with
any linear segments. Overall confidence in this severe storm
threat has increased, especially along/north of US 24...so be
weather alert and stay tuned for updates.

A second line of convection is still expected to develop along a
cold front in eastern IA/WI this evening, with the bulk of CAMs
bringing this east in the 5-9z Monday AM time window. Wind appears
the be the primary threat by this time, conditional on how
convection evolves late this afternoon and evening. Expectations at
this time are for this higher end gusts within the weakening
MCS/QLCS to be more isolated and confined to areas mainly west of
Interstate 69.

A few showers may linger into Monday morning before the cold front
exits to the east, especially along/east of I-69. Gusty northwest
winds and cooler otherwise into the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

A quick shot of cool air will be the wx story post-frontal Monday
night through Tuesday night with lows mid 40s to low 50s. Skies will
trend mainly clear otherwise as low level ridging translates through
on the backside of an exiting upper trough.

Wednesday into Thursday will feature a warming trend on the backside
of high pressure with any convection to focus off to the northwest
on the nose of a LLJ. Fold over of this moisture channel and
front will then bring the next decent chance for showers and
storms into Thursday night and Friday. Troughing then lingers over
the region into next weekend with additional rain chances and
cooler temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 730 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

Mesoscale convective vortex has aided in widespread showers and
thunderstorm development across northern Indiana into southern
Lower Michigan. Approach of this vortex has resulted in some ramp
up of low level jet and northward migration of instability
gradient from central Illinois into north central Indiana. Most
vigorous convection with this disturbance will continue across
northeast Indiana through around 02Z this evening, although
isolated strong storms will remain possible on southern periphery
of this disturbance across northeast Indiana through 06Z. Will
then turn attention to cold frontal forcing late tonight across
northwest Indiana, but still some low confidence in how far east
stronger storms will make it. Will continue to limit mention to
VCSH at KFWA after 07Z with better chances of storms likely
remaining west of Interstate 69. Cigs should deteriorate to
1500-2500 ft from west to east toward daybreak in post-frontal
environment with gradual improvement to VFR Monday afternoon.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement from 1 AM CDT Monday through late Monday
     night for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 2 AM EDT Monday through late Monday
     night for MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM EDT Monday for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Marsili

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Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
232 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-211845-
St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-
Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-
Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Cass MI-
St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-
Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
232 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021 /132 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon into tonight. Severe
thunderstorms are possible, especially late this afternoon and
evening with large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes the
main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Chances for thunderstorms return Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters will likely be needed late this afternoon into tonight.

INZ003-MIZ077-211845-
La Porte-Berrien-
232 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021 /132 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021/

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ MONDAY
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
southwest Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

Thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon into tonight. Severe
thunderstorms are possible, especially late this afternoon and
evening with large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes the
main threats.

Chances for thunderstorms return Friday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

Chances for thunderstorms return Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters will likely be needed late this afternoon into tonight.

LMZ043-046-211845-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
232 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

Severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon into tonight.
Winds and waves may be higher in the vicinity of storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

Chances for thunderstorms return Friday.

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