Lakeshore Flood Advisory 2, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
139 AM EDT Tue Sep 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 751 PM EDT Mon Sep 20 2021

Little more than a few scattered showers overnight, then more
widespread showers and storms arrive Tuesday into Tuesday night.
The rain lingers into Wednesday east of Interstate 69 where
locally heavy rain will be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon Sep 20 2021

Widely scattered showers will remain possible into the early evening
within a north to south plume of deep tropical moisture trailing a
weak shortwave. Cannot rule out some brief heavier showers/thunder
for the remainder of the afternoon in mainly our IN zones given some
PBL warming and near 70F dewpoints. This moisture axis does shift
just east of the area tonight with mainly dry conditions anticipated
in between forcing mechanisms.

A cold front is still on track to slowly progress east through
the area later tonight through Tuesday evening as the mean flow
becomes more aligned with it. Showers and embedded thunder should
accompany the front given relatively deep convergence and ample
moisture under ongoing height falls and increasing right entrance
upper jet support. 850 mb dewpoints near 14-15C and the potential
for some very weak/thin CAPE could support some heavier
showers/rainfall rates, especially in the afternoon if any
convection gets going.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon Sep 20 2021

There remains strong model agreement in a secondary upper wave
digging into the base of the longwave trough, taking on a negative
tilt, and eventually closing off as a mid level low over the OH
Valley and lower Great Lakes Tuesday night through Thursday. This
process and strong forcing on its northeast fringe will no doubt
deepen the mid level frontal forcing Tuesday night into early
Wednesday along and east of I-69 where categorical PoPs and
higher QPF were retained. Models do divergence on where the
deformation band pivots on the backside of the maturing low
pressure system Wednesday night into Thursday with some guidance
lingering precip on our forecast area, and other solutions drier
with the bulk of rain ene of the area. This will determine where
the heavier swath of rain (2-4" plus) ends up falling with some
hydro concerns if/where this occurs. A Flood Watch may be needed
at some point for portions of our east when models come into
better agreement. It will be a raw wind driven rain with some
potential for lake effect rain showers in deep northerly flow as
as 850 mb delta T's push the mid teens.

Broad cyclonic flow will linger in wake of this system for the
second half of the week into this weekend with below normal temps
and periodic low chances for a few passing showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 131 AM EDT Tue Sep 21 2021

A cold front is approaching from the west. This will increase rain
and thunderstorm chances at KSBN over the next few hours.
Confidence in timing of the rain at both sites is medium at best.
this is due to a fairly robust line on radar in contrast to model
guidance which prefers to weaken this line. For now, I suspect the
line will make it to KSBN within the next few hours, but with a
decreasing TS risk.

Rain chances continue through the entire TAF period at both sites
as the upper-level low is forecast to slow and bring wrap-around
showers to the terminals.

At KFWA, a bulk of the rain may hold off until after daybreak at
least, but there are some pop-up showers occurring ahead of the
cold front. There are some signals that IFR ceilings may develop
late; this will be evaluated more closely with the 12z issuance.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement from 10 AM CDT this morning through
     Thursday evening for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 11 AM EDT this morning through
     Thursday evening for MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Murphy
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Brown

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Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
250 PM EDT Mon Sep 20 2021

INZ004>006-008-012>017-020-022>024-MIZ078>080-211900-
St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Noble-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-
Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Cass MI-
St. Joseph MI-Branch-
250 PM EDT Mon Sep 20 2021 /150 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
southwest Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ003-MIZ077-211900-
La Porte-Berrien-
250 PM EDT Mon Sep 20 2021 /150 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021/

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
southwest Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ007-009-018-025>027-032>034-MIZ081-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-
025-211900-
Steuben-De Kalb-Allen IN-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-
Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-
Allen OH-
250 PM EDT Mon Sep 20 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Times of heavy rainfall are possible Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday night. This may result in localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ043-046-211900-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
250 PM EDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.