Dense Fog Advisory 5, NWS Northern Indiana

Adams County, IN, Allen County, IN, Cass County, IN, DeKalb County, IN, Elkhart County, IN, Fulton County, IN, Huntington County, IN, LaGrange County, IN, Marshall County, IN, Miami County, IN, Noble County, IN, Pulaski County, IN, Starke County, IN, Steuben County, IN, Wabash County, IN, Wells County, IN, White County, IN, Whitley County, IN, Branch County, MI, Cass County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Saint Joseph County, MI, Defiance County, OH, Fulton County, OH, Henry County, OH, Paulding County, OH, Williams County, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
308 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

Showers and storms will continue through the evening. Dry and warm
conditions are expected over the weekend with highs in the 80s by
Sunday. The next chance of rain then arrives late Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

Pesky upper low finally being absorbed into mean westerlies and
lifting NE of our area. Upper low center currently just to our NW
and supporting some SCT showers/storms given marginal diurnal
instability amid partly sunny skies. Instability will remain on the
meager side though with dewpoints only in low/mid 60s and poor
midlevel lapse rates. SPC/RAP mesoanalysis indicates 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE supportive of a few thunderstorms but severe weather is not
expected. Coverage will likely remain on the scattered side given
overall poor synoptic forcing but will become more numerous during
late afternoon/early evening as primary vort lobe rotates through.
Isolated heavy rain is possible but not expecting any significant
impacts. A few funnel clouds are also possible given potential for
vorticity stretching in this environment but not anticipating a
tornado threat given limited shear/helicity. Showers will gradually
diminish through the late evening as upper low lifts NE and diurnal
instability is lost. Isolated showers could persist (especially in
our N/NE zones) well into the overnight though until vort max fully
clears.

Saturday is expected to be primarily dry as AVA/subsidence build in
the wake of departing low. However...still can't rule out an
isolated shower in our N/NE where some residual moisture and
cyclonic flow will reside. Increasing sun and WAA will support highs
climbing into the upper 70s/near 80F.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

WAA really ramps up Sat night into Sun. Isentropic ascent could
support a few isolated showers once again mainly in our north but
will hold with silent 10 PoP given limited moisture and overall weak
forcing. Though we likely will not mix that high...interesting to
note 850mb temps climb to around 20C...which is around record
territory for regional upper air climatology. More conservative
mixing depths around 875-900mb under partly cloudy skies gives us
highs in the mid 80s. This is close to record territory (especially
for SBN which is only 85). Similar highs on Mon but clouds increase
late in afternoon as next front approaches and will likely shave a
few degrees off max temps.

Potent trough ejects out of the southwest CONUS and swings through
the Great Lakes late Monday. Good CVA and moisture associated with
this wave and worthy of high PoP's given generally low spread among
ensemble guidance. Thunderstorms also possible but instability
appears too low to support a severe threat...especially given
primarily overnight timing. Quiet weather Tue/Wed but another
trough/front arrives later in the week. Temps holding above average
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

Broad upper level low continues to open up and drift north through
the forecast period. Convection forms during the late afternoon
and lingers into early evening tonight. Patchy fog/drizzle is
expected over NW Ohio and into MI...may be a brief period of
MVFR/IFR vsby at the terminals and have opted to keep that out of
the terminals for now.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...Lewis

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
451 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-090900-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
451 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 /351 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible, but severe weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ043-046-090900-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
451 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.