Areal Flood Advisory 45, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
245 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

Warm and humid conditions will continue into this weekend. There are
low chances for isolated showers and storms this afternoon and
Saturday, with better chances for more widespread showers and storms
arriving late Sunday into Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

Mid level ridging expanding in from the Carolinas/Appalachians will
allow the area to become firmly entrenched in the warm sector
tonight into Saturday. This will keep an active baroclinic zone well
nnw of the area with mainly dry and humid conditions prevailing.
There remains non-zero chances for isolated convection given
weak capping and ample boundary layer moisture southeast of US
24 into the early evening hours near a subtle/leftover
boundary...and again Saturday afternoon if an outflow boundary can
survive south into the area. Heat indices will likely reach the mid
90s to near 100 tomorrow afternoon otherwise.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

The best opportunity for showers and storms still appears to be
later in the day Sunday into Sunday night as a round of Great Lakes
height falls finally forces the frontal zone south. Sunday should be
the last day with heat indices well into the 90s in advance with dry
conditions likely holding for most of the day.

The front then stalls in west to east fashion on the southern fringe
of westerlies by early next week. Where exactly this feature stalls
remains uncertain, with this slowness and uncertainty aided by
Hurricane Ida lifting north into the TN Valley. Retained at least
chance PoPs, especially south of US 30/24 on Monday, given the
close proximity to the boundary. A trend toward near normal
temperatures and lower humidity will be the main wx story next
week with dry conditions for mid week as low level ridging nudges
in from the north.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

VFR this period as upper ridge overtop across the OH valley.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...T

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Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
330 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

INZ003>007-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-281930-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Berrien-Cass MI-
St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-
330 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 /230 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Peak afternoon heat indices will be in the middle 90s to around 100
Saturday and Sunday.

There are chances for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through
Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ008-009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-OHZ004-005-015-016-024-025-
281930-
Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-
Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-
Blackford-Jay-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
330 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 /230 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible into the early evening hours.
The main threat will be torrential downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Peak afternoon heat indices will be in the middle 90s to around 100
Saturday and Sunday.

There are chances for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through
Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ043-046-281930-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
330 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There are chances for thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
640 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

INZ034-272315-
Jay IN-
640 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Jay County
through 715 PM EDT...

At 640 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Portland, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Portland around 645 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4042 8514 4048 8509 4046 8487 4034 8497
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 295DEG 7KT 4043 8502

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MARSILI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
645 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

INZ032-272330-
Grant IN-
645 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Grant County
through 730 PM EDT...

At 645 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Jonesboro, or near Gas City, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Jonesboro around 655 PM EDT.
  Gas City around 700 PM EDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Upland.

This includes Interstate 69 in Indiana between mile markers 258 and
265.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4044 8576 4052 8577 4061 8558 4047 8548
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 265DEG 11KT 4049 8567

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MARSILI

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