Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
308 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

.Short Term...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

Heavy rain and thunderstorms have been forming along a stalled
boundary that stretches from Kansas to Indiana. Isolated to
scattered storms are expected to continue into tomorrow as the
boundary slowly creeps southward throughout the short term period.
The training of the storms have already caused flooding issues in
Illinois today and wouldn't be surprised if parts of Indiana
started to see some flooding issues as well later tonight should
the heavy rain move into our area. Thus far our NW counties have
mainly seen lighter rain, with some pockets of up to an inch so
far today. There's quite a bit of uncertainty with how showers and
storms will evolve through the period since there is little in
the way of upper steering so the boundary, while expected to push
southward over the next 24 to 48 hours, won't really be moving a
whole lot.

Cooler temperatures will finally return to the area tomorrow behind
the front. Lows tonight will still stay in the 70s but highs
tomorrow will be in the low to mid 80s for much of the area with
upper 80s possible across the south, depending on where the boundary
ends up. Tomorrow night's lows will drop back down into the 60s and
possibly even upper 50s.

&&

.Long Term...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

Saturday and Sunday...The models suggest ridging building aloft over
the Rockies resulting in NW flow aloft streaming into the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley. Mid levels show good subsidence and dry air
through the weekend as surface high pressure and northeast winds are
in place across the Great Lakes. This will result in dry...less
humid and not as hot weather for the weekend. Thus will trend toward
mostly clear nights and partly cloudy days with near normal
temperatures.

Monday and Tuesday...The strong surface high pressure system is
depicted to push east of Indiana and strengthen through early next
week. Models show the surface high strongly in control of the
weather across much of the eastern half of the country. Aloft the
ridging across the western parts of the United States looks to make
some slow progress toward the Ohio valley. While this will increase
the SW flow aloft...the lower levels looks to have mainly an
easterly component to the wind. Furthermore a frontal boundary set
up along and south of the Ohio river should keep the deep humid
air out of the forecast area. Thus with little support aloft...will
trend toward a dry forecast to start the workweek.

Wednesday and Thursday...the strong surface high is depicted to push
farther east by the middle of next week. This allows the arrival of
southerly surface flow to central Indiana...bringing a return of
humidity. Meanwhile within the SW flow aloft a few weak short waves
are depicted to push across the area. Thus this along with a warm
and humid air mass along with daytime heating will warrant at least
small chances for showers and storms.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

IMPACTS:
- Convective complex impacting KLAF and could lead to VCTS at KIND
and KHUF
- Additional convection possible overnight
- Winds 200 to 230 degrees around 10 knots with gusts over 20kt
  possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION: Good confidence in VFR conditions outside of convection.
Current convective complex is impacting KLAF and could produce VCTS
at KIND and KHUF later this afternoon as the boundary creeps
southward and outflow boundaries create pop ups.

Convection is possible tonight and into tomorrow as the boundary
inches southward throughout the period. Storms could include brief
variable winds and reduced visibilities within heavy rain.

Winds will be gusty at times from the southwest, especially this
afternoon. Tomorrow winds will be shifting towards northerly behind
the front.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

Short Term...KH
Long Term...Puma
Aviation...KH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
353 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-132000-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon,
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington,
Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers,
Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Clinton, Newport,
Rockville, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville,
Indianapolis, Greenfield, New Castle, Terre Haute, Brazil,
Clay City, Spencer, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin,
Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Linton, Bloomfield, Bloomington,
Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee,
Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, Brownstown, and North Vernon
353 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible through tonight across much of central
Indiana. Isolated severe storms are possible into tonight.

The primary severe threats will be damaging winds. Lightning, gusty
winds, and heavy rainfall are possible with any storm. Storms are
moving slowly and may lead to flooding issues.

Peak heat indices will remain in the upper 90s to around 105 degrees
for most locations SW of a line from Terre Haute to Muncie.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms are possible over all or parts of the area Friday and
again on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Gusty winds, lightning, and locally heavy rain is possible with any
storm.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible this afternoon and tonight.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
431 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

INZ043-044-122100-
Parke IN-Vermillion IN-
431 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Parke and
Vermillion Counties through 500 PM EDT...

At 431 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Chrisman, or 10 miles northeast of Paris, moving
east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Clinton around 445 PM EDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Rockville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3992 8753 3987 8721 3961 8727 3961 8738
      3963 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 276DEG 31KT 3973 8755

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Puma