Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
617 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 616 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

Radar and satellite trends support extending small thunderstorm
chances slightly north through 02z. Activity was currently moving
slowly north along a weak boundary and just to the south of our
southernmost tier. Lightning data was detecting a decent amount of
cloud to ground strikes.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 323 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

As of this afternoon, an expansive Cu is sitting across the region
with some thunderstorms present over Kentucky and southern Indiana.
Chances for isolated storms will be possible over the southern
portion of the forecast area this afternoon as subsidence aloft
weakens due to high pressure slowly exiting.

Hot and humid conditions continue as heat and moisture continue to
advect into the area. An upper wave will be moving in tomorrow,
ahead of which will provide more lift with the humid environment and
prompting isolated to scattered thunderstorms through the day.
Storms could start as early as sunrise with chances increasing
through the day. A few storms in the NE could include isolated
higher winds where higher shear will be.

&&

.Long Term...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

An active pattern is expected for much of the long term period as a
broad trough remains across the area much of the latter portions of
this week into the weekend.  Diurnally driven convection will be
supported by weak shortwaves across the more broad trough.  The
strongest of these waves looks to move through Friday night into
Saturday with the potential for stronger storms as the jet aloft
begins to strengthen and shear becomes more pronounced at the mid
levels.

In addition to the threat from a few stronger storms, can't rule out
isolated flooding with the expectations of scattered showers and
storms for much of the late week and weekend.  If areas of rain
impact the same area for multiple days, expect at least some
isolated flooding, especially across south central Indiana where
soils are currently the most saturated.  PWATs of 1.75 to 2.25
inches further indicates that the atmosphere will be primed for
heavy rain at times.

This pattern looks to continue into early next week as a broad
closed low across the Central Plains slowly moves to the northeast.
With a ridge across the Southeastern Gulf States, expect good
moisture flow into central Indiana as a seasonably strong LLJ builds
between the 2 systems.  Locally, this will mean continued isolated
to scattered showers and storms which will be most widespread mid-
day when instability is strongest.  Also expect continued humid
conditions with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and lows
in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 616 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

IMPACTS:
- VFR conditions though at least 12z. Then, increasing chances for
  thunderstorms with occasional brief MVFR or worse conditions.
- Winds 210-240 degrees less than 10 knots through 02z Wednesday and
  then 180-210 degrees less than 10 knots through 18z and then 210-
  230 degrees less than 10 knots.

DISCUSSION: VFR conditions expected through tonight. Then increasing
chances for thunderstorms, mainly Wednesday afternoon as a cold
front approaches from the northwest. Do not think southern Indiana
convection will make it as far north as KBMG this evening.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Update...MK
Short Term...KH
Long Term...White
Aviation...MK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
344 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060-071945-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon,
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington,
Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers,
Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Clinton, Newport,
Rockville, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville,
Indianapolis, Greenfield, New Castle, Terre Haute, Brazil,
Clay City, Spencer, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin,
Shelbyville, Rushville, and Sullivan
344 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are possible at times from Wednesday through Monday
for much of central Indiana.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

INZ061>065-067>072-071945-
Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-
Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Linton, Bloomfield, Bloomington, Nashville,
Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee, Shoals,
Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, Brownstown, and North Vernon
344 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and early evening
for much of the area. Lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rain are
possible. Storms will move very slowly.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are possible at times from Wednesday through Monday
for much of central Indiana.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
706 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

INZ070-071-062330-
Lawrence-Jackson-
706 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN LAWRENCE AND
SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES...

At 705 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles southeast of
Bedford, moving north at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Locations impacted include...
Bedford, Mitchell, Oolitic, Heltonville, Norman, Avoca, Tunnelton and
Bartlettsville.

LAT...LON 3899 8662 3899 8623 3877 8621 3878 8623
      3877 8624 3877 8625 3876 8626 3877 8626
      3877 8628 3874 8629 3874 8647
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 177DEG 11KT 3879 8633

AU/MK