Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
714 PM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021

Mostly quiet across the forecast area this afternoon, with most
convection confined to a narrow prefrontal corridor of deep moist
convergence from southwestern Michigan back into south central
Missouri. There has been little eastward progress thus far, although
models suggest this axis of convergence will begin to slowly shift
eastward late this afternoon and this evening as the front makes
very slow progress as well.

Will carry thunder chances across the northwest through much of the
night with the highest chances in the evening prior to boundary
layer stabilization. Forecast soundings indicate modest instability
with some fairly good low level shear for a time this evening, so
there will be some chance for strong to severe storms for a window
around 23-03Z or so, with isolated damaging winds and perhaps a
tornado. Marginal risk is well placed.

Thunderstorm chances will overspread the entire area tomorrow, again
highest in the northwest, as the front gets a bit closer, but also
washes out a bit, and somewhat more impressive and widespread
instability is expected to develop, although shear will be a bit
more modest. Marginal risk across much of the area again is well
placed. Expect more scattered activity tomorrow than experienced so
far today.

Storm chances will stick around into Sunday night but wane a bit
again as the boundary layer stabilizes. Details become a bit more
uncertain with time as remnant boundaries are left behind and also
owing to nebulous upper level support.

Blend appears to have a good handle on temperatures and see little
reason to deviate with little change in airmass through the short
term.

&&

.Long Term...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021

Southwest upper flow will become more zonal by mid week next week as
an upper trough moves into the Great Lakes. This will allow a
surface front to gradually move through the area by the end of next
work week.

Best forcing will remain closer to the surface front and upper
trough axis, which means mainly north early in the period. As the
trough and surface front move into the area during the week, forcing
will be more widespread. High precipitable water values will
continue through much of next week, with values between 1.50 and 2"
common. Thus, locally heavy rain will remain a threat.

With the plentiful moisture and available forcing, higher PoPs will
be common north and west early in the period, spreading through the
remainder of the area mid week. PoPs will diminish late week as the
front moves east.

There remains a good amount of uncertainty though on the end of the
period, as the 00Z ECMWF and 12Z Canadian have an upper low to the
west of the area, while the 12Z GFS is east of the area. Will keep
some PoPs for next Saturday with low confidence.

Warm temperatures will continue into mid week, then cooler air will
move in with rain and the surface front.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 713 PM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021

IMPACTS:

* Thunderstorms moving into KLAF over next couple of hours, might
  clip KHUF later.

* Winds from 180 to 200 gusting to around 22 to 30 kts with gusts
  decreasing after sunset, picking back up Sunday late morning.

DISCUSSION: A line of storms stretching from northern Indiana
through central Illinois and moving northeast could reach KLAF over
the next couple of hours. Some uncertainty if the southern edge will
stay south enough to clip KHUF, but nothing expected at KIND and
KBMG. MVFR to IFR conditions possible in the thunderstorms. Storms
should then lift north later overnight.

MVFR ceilings could move in from the northwest near daybreak, but
may only get as far south at KLAF. Chances for more thunderstorms
will return by Sunday afternoon.

Winds are generally from 180-210 and will remain so throughout the
period, sustained at 10-15KT with gusts this evening as high as 25-
30KT, and again into the lower 20KT range tomorrow.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short Term...Nield
Long Term...50
Aviation...CP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
328 PM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021

INZ021-028>031-035>040-043>046-051>053-060-061-067-271930-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-Hendricks-Vigo-Clay-
Owen-Sullivan-Greene-Knox-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon,
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington,
Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers,
Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Clinton, Newport, Rockville,
Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville, Terre Haute, Brazil,
Clay City, Spencer, Sullivan, Linton, Bloomfield, and Vincennes
328 PM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be possible this evening and overnight with a
threat for isolated severe storms through midnight. Damaging winds
and heavy rainfall will be the primary threats, with an isolated
tornado possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through
the week. Storms will produce heavy rainfall and may be strong at
times with gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

INZ041-042-047>049-054>057-062>065-068>072-271930-
Delaware-Randolph-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-Rush-
Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-
Jennings-
Including the cities of Muncie, Winchester, Indianapolis,
Greenfield, New Castle, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood,
Franklin, Shelbyville, Rushville, Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus,
Greensburg, Washington, Loogootee, Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell,
Seymour, Brownstown, and North Vernon
328 PM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through
the week. Storms will produce heavy rainfall and may be strong at
times with gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
746 PM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021

INZ028-270015-
Warren-
746 PM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WARREN COUNTY...

At 744 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Rossville, or
16 miles north of Danville, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Williamsport, West Lebanon, Pine Village, Rainsville, Tab and Pence.

LAT...LON 4048 8752 4047 8709 4037 8709 4035 8711
      4031 8724 4030 8725 4022 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 241DEG 46KT 4038 8757

AU/CP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
913 PM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021

INZ021-029-030-270145-
Clinton-Tippecanoe-Carroll-
913 PM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CARROLL...NORTHEASTERN
TIPPECANOE AND NORTHWESTERN CLINTON COUNTIES...

At 913 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near West Lafayette,
or near Lafayette, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Delphi, Flora, Rossville, Dayton, Battle Ground, Mulberry, Camden and
Yeoman.

This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 159 and 162.

LAT...LON 4074 8653 4069 8652 4069 8646 4035 8643
      4026 8669 4056 8691 4056 8677 4066 8677
      4066 8676 4067 8674 4068 8674 4068 8676
      4069 8675 4070 8676 4072 8675 4073 8676
      4074 8675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 241DEG 43KT 4049 8681

AU/CP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
926 PM EDT SAT JUN 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0911 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 WSW BATTLE GROUND     40.49N 86.89W
06/26/2021  E50 MPH          TIPPECANOE         IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            2 REPORTS OF WINDS ESTIMATED TO 50 MPH. A 48
            MPH GUST WAS REPORTED AT THE KLAF ASOS.

&&

AW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
937 PM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021

INZ021-031-270200-
Howard-Carroll-
937 PM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN CARROLL AND NORTHWESTERN
HOWARD COUNTIES...

At 936 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 11 miles southeast
of Delphi, or 14 miles north of Frankfort, moving northeast at 55
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kokomo and Burlington.

LAT...LON 4056 8637 4056 8600 4043 8634 4043 8644
      4069 8647 4069 8637
TIME...MOT...LOC 0136Z 239DEG 47KT 4049 8650

AU/CP