Areal Flood Warning 16, NWS Indianapolis, IN

560 
WGUS83 KIND 251713
FLSIND

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
113 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

INC133-251815-
/O.CON.KIND.FA.W.0016.000000T0000Z-210825T1815Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Putnam IN-
113 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON 
FOR SOUTHERN PUTNAM COUNTY...

At 113 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated slow moving thunderstorms 
with very heavy rainfall moved across the warned area. Between 1.5 
and 2.5 inches of rain have fallen.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Greencastle, Cloverdale, Fillmore, Belle Union and Reelsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3962 8701 3972 8689 3969 8669 3963 8669
      3963 8664 3962 8664 3960 8666 3959 8665
      3958 8666 3957 8665 3955 8665 3952 8669
      3947 8669 3947 8701

$$

AW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
916 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 915 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

Have made a series of minor adjustments to the forecast as an area
of light to moderate rain continues to move southeast across the
northern and eastern portions of the forecast area as remnants of
overnight convection.  Confidence in the forecast today is
relatively low with a lot of weak influences in the overall weather
pattern.  An outflow boundary from the overnight convection is
currently situated across the southern portions of the forecast area
with a remnant MCV moving into western Ohio.  Convective debris is
leading to at least partly cloudy skies across much of the forecast
area which is likely to inhibit warming going into the afternoon.
The focus for the afternoon and evening remains the high
temperatures, but also now the potnetial for strong to severe
thunderstorms.

The overall storm threat looks to be fairly minimal, but with the
outflow boundary in place and the expected clearing late today,
can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm or even strong thunderstorm
late this afternoon into the evening with best chances across the
south.  Have some doubts that we end up clearing enough for more
than isolated thunderstorm initiation and will reevaluate as more
12Z data comes in.

Will continue the Heat Advisory for now, but with the aforementioned
cloud cover, have doubts that much of the area will see heat
indices in the low 100s to 105. Again, will monitor the cloud
cover and analyze additional model data before making a final
decision late this morning or early afternoon.

&&

.Short Term...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...Hot and Humid Weather will continue...

Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure in
place across Appalachia...with SW surface flow in place across
Central Indiana. Water vapor imagery shows strong and broad high
pressure in place aloft across TX and OK...extending its influences
across the deep south to the Carolinas. This high was keeping the
main storm track across the northern plains states. Radar shows
convection entering NW Central Indiana with a diminishing trend and
warming tops on GOES16. Dew points remained quite moist...in the
lower 70s.

Today...little change is expected within the overall pattern. HRRR
shows the ongoing convection continuing to diminish and drift east
this morning along with its associated weak short wave aloft.
Although the models have been handling upper forcing
poorly...another weak wave is shown to push across northern Indiana
this afternoon. Forecast soundings show a bit more warm air within
the lower levels today...resulting in higher convective temps and a
small cap. CAPE is still above 1500 j/kg this afternoon with pwats
over 1.75. HRRR suggests convective development late this afternoon
and evening as peak heating and the possible short wave forcing
aloft combine to generate storms. Thus will stick with a similar
forecast to yesterday...hot and humid with small chances for
afternoon and evening showers/storms. Will continue the heat
advisory as very similar conditions to yesterday...afternoon heat
index readings between 100 and 105 will be expected.

Tonight...the models show the departure of the upper short
wave...however as we have seen this morning...convection upstream
still could drift into our area given the very moist air mass. As
confidence is low with any forcing and evolution of upstream
convection tomorrow...it seems prudent to include some small chances
for showers/storms overnight. Again best pops would be found across
the northern parts of the forecast area near the main steering flow
aloft. Again will trend lows close to the expected dew points.

On Thursday...models show another weak wave pushing toward Indiana
from Northern Indiana within the flow aloft late in the afternoon.
Forecast soundings at that time show a very favorable column for
convection with convective temperatures near 90...CAPE over 3000
j/kg and pwats over 1.90 inches. Little overall change appears to be
in place within the lower levels with gulf flow still in place. Thus
will again keep some chc pops in place...mainly in the afternoon and
evening...during peak heating hours. Will not be surprised if a heat
advisory is again needed on Thursday...but we will cross that bridge
when we get there.

&&

.Long Term...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

Ensemble means suggest upper ridging will hold over the Ohio
Valley through the end of the week. By early next week, this ridge
may get pushed back towards the southern Plains/Rockies, as a short
wave trough digs southeast through the Great Lakes.

It appears that a frontal system will meander over the Great Lakes
through this upcoming weekend, although mesoscale convective
outflows may push the effective boundary farther south. In addition,
thickness patterns suggest potential for convective clusters to drop
south or southeast from the Great Lakes. Therefore, will keep Pops
for thunderstorms in the forecast through the weekend.

Ensemble means suggest the Great Lakes front will begin to get a
shove south by early next week, as the upper trough moves by.
However, there is still some variance among the ensemble members as
to how far south the front will get by next Tuesday. If the faster
solutions end up verifying, dry conditions may arrive by next
Tuesday. For now, due to the uncertainty of the frontal position,
will hold onto PoPs through next Tuesday.

&&

.Aviation...(251200Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 634 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

IMPACTS:
- Convection possible in the vicinity of the terminals, especially
after 252000Z.
- Surface winds 240-270 degrees at 7-10 kts developing towards
midday.

DISCUSSION:

Radar currently showing some shower activity redeveloping over parts
of central Indiana. No lightning strikes noted yet. Potential
continues for some convective development through the mid to late
morning hours near/along an outflow boundary, arcing from southern
Indiana back west northwest into Illinois and southern Iowa.
Enhanced flow around 25 kts within the 925-850mb layer may provide
enough lift for convective development. Will monitor trends up til
issuance time on whether to include in the forecast for later this
morning.

May be a better convective threat by mid to late afternoon,
especially if the feature over southern Iowa can survive as it moves
east during the day. Brief IFR visibility restrictions and gusty
shifting winds in/near stronger cells. CB bases around 025.

Surface winds a little chaotic, but light, due to earlier outflows,
but surface wind should settle into a west southwest direction
towards midday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening
for INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

Update...White
Short Term...Puma
Long Term...JAS
Aviation...JAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
336 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-260745-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon,
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington,
Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers,
Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Clinton, Newport,
Rockville, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville,
Indianapolis, Greenfield, New Castle, Terre Haute, Brazil,
Clay City, Spencer, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin,
Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Linton, Bloomfield, Bloomington,
Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee,
Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, Brownstown, and North Vernon
336 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. The storms may
produce gusty winds...heavy rain and lightning.

Heat index values will reach between 100 and 105 this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible at times from
Thursday through Monday, especially during the afternoon hours.
Organized severe storms do not appear likely at this time, but
lightning is a threat with any thunderstorm. Heavy downpours and
localized flooding will also be possible.

Afternoon heat index values as high as 100 to 105 degrees can be
expected across portions of central Indiana Thursday and perhaps
Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1058 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

INZ047-048-251530-
Hancock IN-Marion IN-
1058 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Hancock
and Marion Counties through 1130 AM EDT...

At 1057 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lawrence, or 7 miles northeast of Indianapolis, moving south at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Lawrence around 1100 AM EDT.
  Beech Grove around 1115 AM EDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Southport.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 104 and 118.
 Interstate 69 between mile markers 200 and 202.
 Interstate 70 between mile markers 78 and 95.
 Interstate 74 between mile markers 93 and 99.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3970 8595 3968 8595 3966 8620 3993 8623
      3993 8597 3970 8586
TIME...MOT...LOC 1457Z 347DEG 26KT 3987 8609

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AU/AW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

INZ045-046-054-251530-
Morgan IN-Putnam IN-Hendricks IN-
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Morgan,
southwestern Hendricks and southeastern Putnam Counties through 1130
AM EDT...

At 1100 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Greencastle, or 30 miles south of Crawfordsville, moving southeast at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Morgan, southwestern Hendricks and southeastern Putnam Counties,
including the following locations... Stilesville, Amo, Monrovia,
Little Point, Coatesville, Eminence and Belle Union.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 46 and 60.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3973 8668 3961 8644 3945 8663 3947 8663
      3947 8667 3963 8677
TIME...MOT...LOC 1500Z 315DEG 11KT 3961 8673

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

AU/AW