Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
723 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

Multiple severe weather hazards exist across central Illinois late
this afternoon and evening...including the potential for flash
flooding. Be sure to review your weather safety plan and stay
situationally aware.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

20z/3pm surface analysis shows a 997mb low over northwest Missouri
with a warm front extending eastward along a Kirksville...to
Taylorville...to Terre Haute line. Temperatures have surged well
into the 70s south of the boundary, while readings hover in the
50s to the north. As expected, a couple bands of convection are
developing within the warm sector of the system. The first extends
from near Macomb southwestward to Columbia, Missouri...while the
second is further west immediately along an advancing cold front
across western Missouri. Given high degree of wind shear in the
environment, all severe hazards will be possible as the storms
track through the area late this afternoon and evening. Damaging
wind gusts and large hail will be the primary threats: however, a
couple embedded tornadoes may develop along the lines...especially
this evening for locations along/south of I-72. Based on regional
radar trends and latest HRRR, it appears the western line of
convection will push across the I-57 corridor by around
midnight...then into Indiana shortly afterwards. As the surface
low lifts into north-central Illinois late tonight, showers will
wrap back into the area and will linger through at least midday
Monday before gradually tapering off and coming to an end from
west to east during the afternoon. Main weather story on Monday
will be the windy and colder conditions. After a brief warm-up
this evening when the warm front lifts north of I-72, temps will
crash late tonight and will remain in the lower to middle 50s on
Monday. In addition, strong NW winds gusting 30-40mph will make it
feel even chillier.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

High pressure will build into the region Monday night, resulting
in clearing skies and diminishing winds. With low temperatures
expected to drop into the middle 30s, think patchy frost is a
good bet across the Illinois River Valley. Further east, think
temps will remain a bit too warm in the upper 30s and lower
40s...and winds will remain too strong for frost formation. After
a chilly start to the day, ample sunshine will warm readings into
the upper 50s and lower 60s.

After that, another frontal boundary will swing into the Midwest
by the middle of the week. With the associated upper low cutting
off from the main flow, this system will be slow to arrive and
slow to depart. As a result, have delayed PoPs on Wednesday...and
these may need to be further reduced or even removed entirely if
trends continue. Have then gone with high PoPs Wednesday night
through Friday before the system finally departs by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 718 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

Severe storms push through region during the first 6 hours of the
period as a frontal system progresses across the Midwest. Ceilings
will be vrb in nature, as a warm front stalls across the I-72
corridor, leaving lower ceilings across the northern sites. As the
cold front slides through, expecting ceilings to decrease back
into MVFR at all sites later tonight. Gusty winds will be possible
from south at SPI, DEC, and CMI, while remaining northerly at PIA
and BMI. Once the cold front swings through, winds increase from
the w, becoming nnw through Monday. Storms will impact the area
terminals through portions of the overnight, with the frontal
boundary moving across the Mississippi River currently. Expect
showers and storms, severe at times, throughout the first part of
tonight, possibly linger towards morning in far eastern Illinois.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Monday for ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>048.

Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Monday for ILZ049>051-053.

Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for ILZ051.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Baker

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
303 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>048-252015-
Cass-Champaign-De Witt-Fulton-Knox-Logan-Marshall-Mason-McLean-
Menard-Peoria-Piatt-Schuyler-Stark-Tazewell-Vermilion-Woodford-
303 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

The threat for severe weather will be primarily this evening.
Large hail up to the size of quarters, damaging thunderstorm wind
gusts between 60-70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible.

Periods of heavy rainfall may lead to localized flash flooding.
Widespread amounts between 1-3" will be most common, but localized
amounts between 4-6" are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Winds will remain gusty on Monday as the frontal system departs
the region. Occasional gusts to 35 mph will be possible during the
afternoon hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this evening.

ILZ049-050-053-252015-
Macon-Morgan-Scott-
303 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

The threat for severe weather will be primarily this evening.
Large hail up to the size of quarters, damaging thunderstorm wind
gusts between 60-70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible.

Periods of heavy rainfall may lead to localized flash flooding.
Widespread amounts between 1-3" will be most common, but localized
amounts between 4-6" are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Winds will remain gusty on Monday as the frontal system departs
the region. Occasional gusts to 35 mph will be possible during the
afternoon hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this evening.

ILZ051-252015-
Sangamon-
303 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

The threat for severe weather will be primarily this evening.
Large hail up to the size of quarters, damaging thunderstorm wind
gusts between 60-70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible.

Periods of heavy rainfall may lead to localized flash flooding.
Widespread amounts between 1-3" will be most common, but localized
amounts between 4-6" are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Winds will remain gusty on Monday as the frontal system departs
the region. Occasional gusts to 35 mph will be possible during the
afternoon hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this evening.

ILZ052-054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-252015-
Christian-Clark-Clay-Coles-Crawford-Cumberland-Douglas-Edgar-
Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Moultrie-Richland-Shelby-
303 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

The threat for severe weather will ramp up this evening. Large
hail up to the size of quarters, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts
between 60-70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Winds will remain gusty on Monday as the frontal system departs
the region. Occasional gusts to 35 mph will be possible during the
afternoon hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this evening.

Shimon

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
720 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             2 SE PETERSBURG         39.99N 89.82W
10/24/2021  M1.00 INCH       MENARD             IL   PUBLIC

            TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
722 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PEKIN                   40.57N 89.64W
10/24/2021                   TAZEWELL           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
728 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND GST     DOWNS                   40.40N 88.87W
10/24/2021  M60 MPH          MCLEAN             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DOWNS                   40.40N 88.87W
10/24/2021                   MCLEAN             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
729 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STANFORD                40.43N 89.22W
10/24/2021                   MCLEAN             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
734 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 N RUSHVILLE           40.18N 90.56W
10/24/2021                   SCHUYLER           IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            VEHICLE SWEPT OFF ROAD AND DRIVER WAS
            RESCUED. NUMEROUS OTHER REPORTS OF FLOODING
            IN THE COUNTY ALONG THE LAMOINE RIVER BASIN.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
738 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

ILZ046-250115-
Vermilion-
738 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Vermilion County
through 815 PM CDT...

At 738 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Hoopeston to Fithian. Movement was east at
45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Danville, Westville, Tilton and Belgium.

This includes Interstate 74 between mile markers 199 and 220.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for east central
Illinois.

&&

LAT...LON 4006 8793 4049 8791 4049 8753 4002 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 0038Z 269DEG 38KT 4043 8757 4013 8790

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Shimon