Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1128 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

After some breaks in cloud coverage this afternoon, additional
clouds are beginning to build back across the region. This trend
continues overnight as the next weather system arrives. Rainfall
will overspread the area tonight, with embedded thunderstorms
possible...although not severe. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible as a warm frontal boundary lifts into the Midwest,
stalling out for the next couple of days. This will linger
rainfall across the area through the first half of the week, also
bringing the potential for afternoon storms each day. Temperatures
will continue to slowly warm through the week, with forecast highs
near normal through Tuesday...and then a significant warmup
heading into the second half of the week where highs will peak in
the 80s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 843 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

Rain is approaching the I-57 corridor this hour with a corridor of
thunderstorms stretching from near Taylorville back into east
central Missouri. This corridor of heavier showers and storms
should continue east impacting areas mainly south of I-72. The
main concern will be for locally heavy rain due to training
storms. MRMS estimates indicate that 1.5-2 inch per hour rainfall
rates are occuring within the most intense storms that have thus
far stayed just south of the forecast area. These storms will
track east near the I-70 corridor late this evening. A few
isolated storms will be possible further north overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

Clouds broke away this afternoon, providing some brief periods of
sunshine across the region. This helped to push temperatures this
afternoon into the 70s across much of the region. However, this
trend has begun to shift back to clouds returning across western
and portions of central Illinois, as the next weather system
arrives. Looking over radar data, the warm frontal boundary
continues lifting north across south central Illinois...more
defined across central Missouri, where storms are developing. This
lift will track showers and storms along and north of the
boundary, into central Illinois this evening and overnight.

Expecting rainfall to overspread the area tonight, with best
chances of moderate to heavy rainfall north of the I-72/Danville
corridor. The wet weather pattern will unfortunately linger into
the start of the week, as weak upper level zonal flow holds the
warm frontal boundary in place. As the upper level flow is weak,
this will slowly track the Low pressure core through the region
during the first half of this upcoming work week. This brings
about a wet and gloomy pattern of weather to the region, with days
of cloudiness and rainfall.

Overnight, expecting the chance for storms to move through the
region, however no severe weather is expected as instability
factors are weak. The main axis of precip will lift through the
region overnight into Monday, moving the rainfall to north central
and northern Illinois. This will continue to hold warmer
temperatures in place, as the frontal system lingers throughout
the local coverage area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

Heading into Monday night, the system core begins to slide into
the mid-Mississippi River Valley. This will slowly lift through
the western Great Lakes region towards mid-week, pushing a sfc
High pressure system through the Atlantic coast then off the se US
coast during the second half of this week. This pattern setup
allows for extensive moisture advection from the Gulf up the
Mississippi River, directly into the Midwest. Therefore, the
forecast will continue to be of wet, dreary conditions throughout
much of this week. However, heading into next weekend the High
might slip onshore, which would allow for a slight edge of the
moisture flow westward. This track would bring an end to rainfall
chances Friday and into next weekend.

Some chances of breaks in precipitation will occur this week, not
a total washout. However it appears there will be more wet
conditions than dry conditions this week. Each day will also
feature the chance for storms, as unsettled weak upper level flow
through the first half of the week gives way to a deepening trof
during the second half of the week. One significant change to the
week will be temperatures, as the zonal flow breaks down bringing
the return of strong southerly airflow to the Midwest beginning
Wednesday. Temps are forecast to climb to the 80s mid-week,
lingering into the end of week and next weekend...so maybe a
bright side to the wet weather, warmer temperatures arrive.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

Tricky aviation forecast today as a warm front lifts towards the
region. The front will be the focus for showers and storms through
the period, but there will likely be some breaks in precip, though
have low confidence in timing this. In addition, ceilings will
gradually lower to IFR as the front approaches, but guidance has
been struggling with this and has been bringing ceilings down too
quickly thus far. Regardless, once ceilings drop to IFR or lower
end MVFR, they will likely stay until the front lifts north and
winds veer to southerly, which is currently expected beyond the
current TAF period.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Deubelbeiss
SYNOPSIS...Baker
SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM...Baker
AVIATION...Deubelbeiss

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
303 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

ILZ027>031-037-038-171100-
Knox-Marshall-McLean-Peoria-Stark-Tazewell-Woodford-
303 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms are possible tonight. No severe weather is
expected, although locally heavy rain will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Isolated thunderstorms are also possible Monday through Friday,
mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. The potential for
severe thunderstorms appears low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ036-040-041-047-171100-
Cass-Fulton-Mason-Schuyler-
303 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and tonight.
No severe weather is expected, although locally heavy rain will be
possible.

Minor flooding will continue along the Illinois River near
Havana.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Isolated storms are also possible Monday through Friday, mainly
in the afternoon and evening hours. The potential for severe
thunderstorms appears low.

Minor flooding will continue through the period along the Illinois
River near Havana, and flooding may briefly affect areas near
Beardstown Monday or Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ042>046-048>057-061-171100-
Champaign-Christian-Coles-De Witt-Douglas-Edgar-Logan-Macon-
Menard-Morgan-Moultrie-Piatt-Sangamon-Scott-Shelby-Vermilion-
303 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and
tonight. No severe weather is expected, although locally heavy
rain will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Storms are possible Monday through Friday, mainly in the
afternoon and evening hours. The potential for severe
thunderstorms appears low, though locally heavy rain will be
possible, especially Monday through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-171100-
Clark-Clay-Crawford-Cumberland-Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Richland-
303 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and
tonight. No severe weather is expected, although locally heavy
rain will be possible.

Minor flooding continues along much of the Wabash River from near
Palestine upstream.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

There will be a daily chance for thunderstorms Monday through
Friday, especially in the afternoon and evening. The potential for
severe thunderstorms appears low, but locally heavy rain is
possible, especially Monday through Tuesday.

Minor flooding will continue along the Wabash River from Palestine
upstream through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

Baker

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
912 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     HEAVY RAIN       JACKSONVILLE AIRPORT    39.77N 90.24W
05/16/2021  M1.02 INCH       MORGAN             IL   AWOS

            RAINFALL SINCE 6 PM.

&&

ERWIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1120 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SPRINGFIELD             39.80N 89.65W
05/16/2021  M1.00 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   ASOS

            RAINFALL PAST 4 HOURS FROM 7-11 PM AT
            SPRINGFIELD CAPITOL AIRPORT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1226 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NW MATTOON            39.48N 88.38W
05/17/2021  M2.17 INCH       COLES              IL   COCORAHS

            RAINFALL SINCE 10 PM CDT WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
            MINOR FLOODING.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1231 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1223 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MATTOON                 39.48N 88.37W
05/17/2021  M2.36 INCH       COLES              IL   ASOS

            RAINFALL SINCE 10 PM CDT. STILL GETTING
            THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1241 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021

ILZ062-063-066>068-170645-
Jasper-Effingham-Clark-Cumberland-Crawford-
1241 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD...NORTHERN
JASPER...SOUTHERN CLARK...CUMBERLAND AND NORTHEASTERN EFFINGHAM
COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM CDT...

At 1241 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Toledo to near Teutopolis. Movement was east at
30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Marshall, Toledo, Casey, Teutopolis, Greenup, Martinsville,
Dieterich, Jewett, Montrose, Wheeler, Hidalgo, Annapolis, Hazel Dell,
Woodbury, Hunt City, Orange, Yale, Rose Hill, Lincoln Trail State
Park and Union Center.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 100 and 137.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3938 8760 3904 8790 3904 8858 3937 8827
TIME...MOT...LOC 0541Z 267DEG 26KT 3927 8828 3908 8845

Shimon