Areal Flood Warning 5, NWS Lincoln, IL

594 
WGUS83 KILX 130203
FLSILX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
903 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

ILC019-113-130213-
/O.EXP.KILX.FA.W.0005.000000T0000Z-210813T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Champaign IL-McLean IL-
903 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MCLEAN AND 
NORTHWESTERN CHAMPAIGN COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended and flood waters are receding. Flooding is 
no longer expected to pose a threat, however please continue to heed 
remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 4034 8846 4033 8859 4050 8860 4050 8846
      4043 8846 4040 8846 4040 8845 4040 8842
      4040 8840 4040 8838 4040 8833 4040 8823
      4040 8821 4040 8818 4040 8808 4040 8805
      4036 8806

$$

37

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1235 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

Morning thunderstorms over parts of central IL, will give way to
another hot and humid day. A heat advisory is in effect from noon
to 7 pm, south of a Canton to Danville line. A cold front pushing
south into the region late this afternoon and evening, will bring
a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms and locally heavy
rainfall. Some lingering showers or storms are possible on Friday,
but a trend to drier and cooler weather will be underway, as high
pressure builds in from the northwest to start the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

Very heavy rainfall from intense updrafts has produced areas of
flooding this morning in McLean and N Champaign counties, where 3
to 5 inches of rain have fallen. An elongated area of sustained
forcing for precip has developed across the northern half of our
CWA. Generally elevated instability is being tapped by a continued
strong mid-level flow, and back-building storms will likely
continue for several more hours. Will need to monitor closely for
additional flash flood warnings.

We have lowered high temps across the north due to clouds/rain
that will likely not break up until mid-afternoon at the earliest.
CAMs have been missing the current storms, but continue to show
steady dissipation of the convection through early afternoon.
Confidence in any CAM solution is low at this point, so will
continue storm chances for a good portion of the afternoon.

The general consensus for tonight is for a complex of storms to
erupt in west-central IL toward mid-evening, then expand and
accelerate to the SE as a squall line. Have continued that trend
in the forecast for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

2 am surface map indicated a pre frontal trof from southeast WI
into south central IA. South of this boundary, elevated moist
advection aided by a 40 kt low level jet allowed scattered showers
and storms to form in a convergence zone, affecting areas south of
I-80 and north of a Macomb to Bloomington line. Weak mid level
flow leads to a low severe potential, although small hail would
be possible given steep mid level lapse rates. High PWs near 2"
and training storms make locally heavy rain and isolated flash
flooding a possibility over the next few hours over the northern
CWA. Prolific cloud to ground lightning strikes have also been
noted.  CAMs suggest this activity weakens toward sunrise as the
LLJ wanes, leaving debris clouds and a capped airmass across
central IL. This should limit convection through much of the
afternoon.

It will be another hot and humid day, though debris clouds give
some uncertainty to the high temp forecast. Still, most areas to
see lower 90s highs assuming clearing eventually occurs, and mid
70s dewpoints. In collaboration with surrounding offices, have
issued a Heat Advisory south of a Canton to Danville line, from
noon to 7 pm. Heat indices peak around 105F here, and closer to
100F farther north.

The next good chance for storms will be tied to the cold front,
pressing south into east central IA and northwest IL late this
afternoon. Airmass ahead of this plenty unstable with 3000 J/kg
CAPE into mid evening along with 30-40 kt bulk shear, better than
recent days. This supports a severe weather threat (primarily
damaging wind), gradually diminishing towards midnight as both
instability and shear trend down. The most favored area for severe
highlighted by SPC Day 1 slight risk northwest of a Jacksonville
to Bloomington line. PWs around 2" present a localized flash flood
threat, especially where training occurs.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

Latest guidance has trended faster with the frontal timing through
the southern CWA Friday afternoon, which should push the severe
threat farther south into the Ohio Valley. Still have lingering
pops behind the front, but should see a drying trend from the
northwest. Dewpoints fall into the 60s north of I-70 during the
afternoon. This, along with highs in the low to mid 80s signal
the start of a more comfortable weather pattern.

Saturday through Monday, large surface ridge sets up over the
Great Lakes, providing a dry northeast flow to central IL. This
results in low 80s highs and seasonably low dewpoints in the
low/mid 60s.

Tuesday through Wednesday, the highs shifts east eventually
veering low level flow southeast, for gradually warming
temperatures and rising dewpoints. With the increased instability,
low chances for thunderstorms each afternoon in eastern IL.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to advance across central IL
from west to east through mid-afternoon, with very heavy rainfall.
The corridor is mainly affecting BMI, but PIA and CMI could see a
stray storm drift within 5SM of the airport at times. Another line
of storms will accompany a cold front dropping southeast across
the area later this evening. There is some uncertainty in
coverage and timing, so continued utilize VCTS at this time,
except for SPI where a TEMPO was included from 05z-07z for the
line of storms to affect that area. IFR reductions and gusty
winds possible with any of the storms through this evening.
Southwest winds to gust up to 20 kt at times this afternoon,
before decreasing in the vicinity of the front this evening. A
wind shift to N-NW is projected for Friday morning in the wake of
tonights cold frontal passage.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ036-040>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

UPDATE...Shimon
SYNOPSIS...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...Shimon

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1142 AM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

ILZ036-040>048-131100-
Cass-Champaign-De Witt-Fulton-Logan-Mason-Menard-Piatt-Schuyler-
Vermilion-
1142 AM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Widespread storms are possible across the region this afternoon,
but storms are more likely tonight. Storms will be capable of
producing damaging winds, as well as frequent lightning and heavy
rain.

The heat index is expected to range from 100 to 105 degrees this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Scattered storms will linger into Friday morning, before passage
of a cold front. These storms are not expected to be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight, with the most likely
time frame between 8 pm and midnight.

ILZ027>031-037-038-131100-
Knox-Marshall-McLean-Peoria-Stark-Tazewell-Woodford-
1142 AM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Scattered storms are possible across the region this afternoon,
but storms are more likely tonight. Storms will be capable of
producing damaging winds, as well as frequent lightning and heavy
rain.

The heat index is expected to be around 100 degrees this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Scattered storms will linger into Friday morning, before passage
of a cold front. These storms are not expected to be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight, with the most likely
time frame between 8 pm and midnight.

ILZ049>057-061>063-131100-
Christian-Clark-Coles-Cumberland-Douglas-Edgar-Macon-Morgan-
Moultrie-Sangamon-Scott-Shelby-
1142 AM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Isolated storms are possible across the region this afternoon,
but storms are more likely tonight. Storms will be strong to
locally severe, with strong winds, frequent lightning and heavy
rain.

The heat index is expected to range from 100 to 105 degrees this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Scattered storms will linger into Friday, before passage of a
cold front. These storms are not expected to be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight, with the most likely
time frame between 11 pm and 3 am.

ILZ066>068-071>073-131100-
Clay-Crawford-Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Richland-
1142 AM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

The heat index is expected to range from 100 to 105 degrees this
afternoon.

A few thunderstorms are possible this evening, but are more
likely after midnight. These are not expected to be severe.

Minor flooding will continue on the Embarras River near
Lawrenceville, and the Little Wabash River near Clay City.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Scattered thunderstorms will occur on Friday, until passage of a
cold front. These are not expected to be severe.

Minor flooding on the Embarras River will subside early Friday
morning, but linger on the Little Wabash River through the
weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

Baker

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
145 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

ILZ043>045-121930-
Piatt-De Witt-Champaign-
145 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Piatt,
eastern De Witt and southwestern Champaign Counties through 230 PM
CDT...

At 144 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
De Land, or 8 miles north of Monticello, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Monticello around 150 PM CDT.
  White Heath around 155 PM CDT.
  Seymour and Lake Of The Woods around 200 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Bondville,
Champaign, Savoy, Tolono and Pesotum.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 57 between mile markers 221 and 242.
 Interstate 72 between mile markers 158 and 182.
 Interstate 74 between mile markers 159 and 189.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4001 8873 4026 8863 4019 8808 3989 8818
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 293DEG 29KT 4015 8858

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

SB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
223 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

ILZ045-046-055-057-122015-
Douglas-Vermilion-Champaign-Edgar-
223 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Edgar,
southern Vermilion, southern Champaign and northeastern Douglas
Counties through 315 PM CDT...

At 222 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sidney, or 9 miles southeast of Champaign, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Ogden around 230 PM CDT.
  Homer and Broadlands around 235 PM CDT.
  Allerton around 240 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Fairmount, Catlin,
Sidell, Georgetown and Ridge Farm.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 57 between mile markers 218 and 233, and near mile marker
243.
 Interstate 74 between mile markers 180 and 220.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3992 8845 4022 8821 4014 8753 3971 8754
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 287DEG 35KT 4006 8810

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
235 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

ILZ050>052-122000-
Sangamon-Morgan-Christian-
235 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central
Christian, Sangamon and southeastern Morgan Counties through 300 PM
CDT...

At 235 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Chatham, or near Springfield, moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Rochester around 240 PM CDT.
  Auburn around 245 PM CDT.
  Divernon around 250 PM CDT.
  Pawnee around 255 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Kincaid, Bulpitt
and Jeisyville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 55 between mile markers 78 and 104.
 Interstate 72 between mile markers 61 and 107.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3993 8962 3953 8926 3952 9023 3969 9032
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 324DEG 33KT 3972 8970

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
249 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NW GRANDVIEW          39.84N 89.64W
08/12/2021  M60 MPH          SANGAMON           IL   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
258 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JEROME                  39.77N 89.68W
08/12/2021                   SANGAMON           IL   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN ON ISLES AND LEONARD RD AS WELL
            AS LEONARD AND REED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
301 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0301 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E GRANDVIEW           39.82N 89.61W
08/12/2021                   SANGAMON           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER OUTAGES REPORTED.

&&