Areal Flood Advisory 12, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
352 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms with muggy conditions
can be expected through tonight. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible in southeast IL this evening. A cold
front will start to push southward into the area Thursday,
bringing a decrease in showers and thunderstorms after it moves
through, as well as cooler and drier conditions. Cooler and dry
conditions can be expected Friday, followed by gradual warming
through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021

Central IL remains south of a cold front draped across northern
IL, with warm and humid conditions to the south. High precipitable
water values and a weak trough/col across central IL are allowing
a series of weak disturbances to form clusters of showers and a
few thunderstorms, and should continue until the cold front
arrives Thursday. This evening, enough instability will be highest
in southeast IL, around 2000-2500 J/kg, to support isolated severe
thunderstorms until diurnal trends weaken the instability. The
remainder of central IL has more subdued instability due to
extensive cloud cover, and localized heavy rain due to repeated
thunderstorms will be the main threat, especially given the
extremely wet antecedent conditions. The approach of the front
should start overnight, eventually increasing shower activity
again, with the front expected to reach the I-74 corridor during
the morning, and I-70 by evening. Behind the front, expect
thunderstorm activity to diminish, with only isolated storms
possible until sunset. Lows tonight should remain a very mild 70
degrees or so, followed by around 80 Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021

High pressure behind Thursday's cold front will bring in dry
conditions through Monday. Cool highs in the upper 70s Friday will
gradually rise to around 90 by Monday. Dewpoints in the 50s Friday
and Saturday should help conditions feel pleasant, followed by a
return to more normal humidity by early next week. The next
chances for precipitation develop by the middle of next week as
the high pressure breaks down.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021

Scattered shra, very isolated tsra across central IL terminals
area producing a variety of MVFR and some isolated IFR cigs and
MVFR vsbys, although VFR will be common at times this afternoon as
well. TSRA will become somewhat more prevalent this afternoon as
warmest daytime temperatures are reached, then diminish after
sunset. Cigs should become predominantly MVFR and decrease
overnight, followed by improvement behind a cold front arriving
from the north late in the period. Winds predominantly SW under 10
kts until the front arrives, then north.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...37
SHORT TERM...37
LONG TERM...37
AVIATION...37

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
351 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021

ILZ038-042>046-051>055-061-012100-
Champaign-Christian-De Witt-Douglas-Logan-Macon-McLean-Moultrie-
Piatt-Sangamon-Shelby-Vermilion-
351 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and east central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms are possible through tonight. Some of
these storms could produce locally heavy rain.

Minor flooding is ongoing along the Sangamon River at Monticello.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Thunderstorms are possible again Thursday. The potential for
severe weather is low. However, locally heavy rain will be
possible.

Minor flooding will continue along the Sangamon River at
Monticello into this weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight. However,
rainfall and flooding reports would be greatly appreciated.

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047>050-012100-
Cass-Fulton-Knox-Marshall-Mason-Menard-Morgan-Peoria-Schuyler-
Scott-Stark-Tazewell-Woodford-
351 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms are possible through tonight. Some of
these storms could produce locally heavy rain.

Minor to moderate flooding is ongoing along portions of the
Illinois River and Sangamon River.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Thunderstorms are possible again Thursday. The potential for
severe weather is low. However, locally heavy rain will be
possible.

Flooding will continue along portions of the Illinois River and Sangamon
River for several days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight. However,
rainfall and flooding reports would be greatly appreciated.

ILZ056-057-062-063-066>068-071>073-012100-
Clark-Clay-Coles-Crawford-Cumberland-Edgar-Effingham-Jasper-
Lawrence-Richland-
351 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms are possible through tonight. Some of
these storms could be strong to severe this evening with damaging
wind gusts the primary hazard. Locally heavy rain is also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Thunderstorms are possible again Thursday. The potential for
severe weather is low. However, locally heavy rain will be
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible this afternoon and evening.

25