Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
731 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
The heat and humidity will remain in place through the weekend
along with daily shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Showers and thunderstorms have developed across far northern and
southern portions of the region, generally in the same areas
that did not receive a lot of rain yesterday. Expect some
additional development into the evening hours. Given the
environment, heavy downpours will continue to be a possibility
with storms that develop. There is a little more flow today than
yesterday, however still have some flooding concerns if
multiple storms move over the same area. In addition flow is a
little less across the Scioto Valley, however expect coverage to
be less across that location as well. As with other recent
days, cannot rule out isolated damaging winds as we well.

Linger some precipitation overnight. If this activity and
associated cloud cover dissipates quicker than anticipated then
fog will become an issues especially in river valley locations.
Kept fog out of the forecast at this time.

Lows overnight will be in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Another day of heat and humidity will be in place for Saturday.
Continued heat mention in the HWO. Have thunderstorms developing
with a peak in the afternoon to early evening again. Outside of
thunderstorm activity winds will be light and less than 10
knots. Lows Saturday night will again be in the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
On Sunday morning, the overall weather pattern over the Ohio Valley
will be largely unchanged from the preceding days -- with high
pressure near the southeast coast, SSW flow into the region, and a
continuation of warm and humid conditions. What will follow, through
the rest of the extended forecast period, is a change to this
pattern. This change will be driven by height falls over the Great
Lakes, a cold front moving south into the region, and the eventual
passage of whatever remains of Hurricane Ida.

Sunday will be one last day of more-of-the-same, with highs around
90, heat indices in the mid to upper 90s, and a chance of spotty
storm development. With no significant forcing mechanisms to speak
of, PoPs will be kept in the chance category, with diurnal timing
appearing most likely.

On Monday, a cold front will move south toward the Ohio Valley, with
decent model agreement that it will at least end up somewhere south
of the Michigan border by late in the day. Although this front will
be pivoting into a west-to-east orientation, there are signs that
the environment just ahead of the front will be quite favorable for
storm development -- generally uncapped surface-based instability, a
source of forcing for initial storm development, and some increase
in mid-level flow. PoPs have been put in the likely category for
Monday, and there will probably be at least some degree of low-end
severe or flooding threat to keep an eye out for. Confidence is low
in any specifics, but the moist environment and frontal orientation
suggest a heavy rain threat will be possible, and some degree of
wind damage threat is almost impossible to rule out with this kind
of instability.

As the front stalls out over the area, and height falls occur,
Hurricane Ida will also be moving north (and the northeast) into the
TN/KY area on Tuesday. Several model runs are hinting at the
potential for a swath of heavy rainfall near or just north of the
track of the center of whatever is left of Ida, though it is not
certain if that heavy rain threat will be within the ILN forecast
area or not. Much of this will depend on the strength of the height
falls (and developing troughing) that will adjust the mid-level
steering /and/ forcing. For now, especially as this is on Day 5 /
Day 6 of the forecast cycle, confidence is low in whatever may end
up happening over the ILN forecast area. It is simply something to
keep in mind as a possible weather story for the middle of next week.

Once Ida has passed, there is fair model agreement in drier and
cooler conditions later in the week -- with highs closer to 80
degrees than the 90+ values seen in recent days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Scattered thunderstorms should dissipate shortly after 00z with
loss of daytime heating. VFR will continue early tonight,
before BR and FG reduce visibilities at LUK and ILN. Once we
return to VFR Saturday morning, VCSH are expected Saturday
afternoon. Winds staying below 10 knots from the south to
southwest may gust much higher during convective episodes.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible through Tuesday. MVFR
conditions possible Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Novak
NEAR TERM...Novak
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...Coniglio

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
410 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-281000-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
410 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Heat index values in the 95 to 100 degree range will be possible this
afternoon.

Scattered thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours
and localized flooding this afternoon into early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Heat index values in the 95 to 100 degree range will be possible
during the afternoon on Saturday and Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
743 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BUTLER                  38.79N 84.37W
08/27/2021                   PENDLETON          KY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ACROSS ROADWAY.

&&

CAMPBELL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
749 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

OHZ043-280015-
Shelby OH-
749 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SHELBY
COUNTY THROUGH 815 PM EDT...

At 749 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Sidney. This
storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph, half inch hail, frequent
         cloud-to-ground lightning, and very heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to outdoor
         objects. Lightning can cause serious injury or death.
         Visibility will be poor and hydroplaning is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sidney, Anna, Botkins, Hardin, Port Jefferson, Maplewood, Newbern,
Mccartyville and Swanders.

This includes I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 88 and 103.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

Motorists should slow down and use extra caution.

When thunder roars, go indoors! Do not stay in the open or seek
shelter under trees when lightning threatens.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4036 8400 4020 8412 4028 8433 4040 8427
      4046 8415
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 125DEG 4KT 4032 8414

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Coniglio

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
755 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

OHZ046-280030-
Delaware OH-
755 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL DELAWARE
COUNTY THROUGH 830 PM EDT...

At 755 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Sunbury. This
storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph, half inch hail, frequent
         cloud-to-ground lightning, and very heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to outdoor
         objects. Lightning can cause serious injury or death.
         Visibility will be poor and hydroplaning is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Westerville, Delaware, Powell, Sunbury, Polaris, Galena, Interstate
71 at US Route 36/State Route 37, Alum Creek State Park, Stratford,
Bellepoint, Leonardsburg, Kilbourne and Lewis Center.

This includes I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 122 and 136.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

Motorists should slow down and use extra caution.

When thunder roars, go indoors! Do not stay in the open or seek
shelter under trees when lightning threatens.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4037 8293 4036 8291 4026 8279 4013 8291
      4014 8301 4019 8317 4023 8317 4042 8299
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 125DEG 4KT 4023 8294

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Coniglio

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
757 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CORINTH                 38.50N 84.56W
08/27/2021                   GRANT              KY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE KNOCKED DOWN

&&

CAMPBELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
810 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PATRIOT                 38.84N 84.83W
08/27/2021                   SWITZERLAND        IN   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

CAMPBELL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
821 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

OHZ052-053-280045-
Champaign OH-Clark OH-
821 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
CHAMPAIGN AND NORTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM EDT...

At 821 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near St. Paris,
moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph, pea size hail, and very heavy
         rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to outdoor
         objects. Visibility will be poor and hydroplaning is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
St. Paris, Christiansburg, North Hampton, Tremont City, Thackery,
Millerstown, Westville, Terre Haute, State Route 41 at State Route
235 and Dialton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

Motorists should slow down and use extra caution.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4019 8387 4002 8378 3996 8404 4003 8404
      4008 8403 4012 8403
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 243DEG 10KT 4004 8398

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Hickman