Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
347 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move southeast across the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley tonight. High pressure will build into the region for
the weekend, bringing cooler and less humid conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Early this evening, the southern portion of local area will be
under the influence of warm, humid airmass with MLCAPE values up
to around 2000 J/kg. Expect scattered to numerous airmass
thunderstorms to continue to develop in this area.

Effective bulk shear values will be generally less than 20 knots,
meaning the storms will remain poorly organized. However, DCAPE
values well above 1000 J/kg suggests a heightened downburst
threat with stronger cores.

Cold frontal boundary in the Great Lakes will slide southeast
into the Ohio Valley tonight. While this surface boundary will
likely increase convergence ahead of it, mid-level clouds
northwest of I-71, along with evening convection southeast of
I-71, will likely dampen potential for widespread thunderstorm
development. Have cut down on PoPs to chance range due to these
latest trends.

Low temperatures will range from the low 60s northwest behind
the front to around 70 southeast. Humidity levels will drop
throughout the night, providing more comfortable conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
On Saturday, the cold front will exit south into Kentucky.
There may be a lingering shower early in the southeast;
otherwise, skies will become mostly sunny as high pressure
builds into the Great Lakes. It will be drier and cooler as our
low level flow will be from the north to northeast around 10 to
15 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
To start the period, broad high pressure extends over much of the
Great Lakes region. Cool, dry weather is expected Sunday with highs
in the upper 70s and lower 80s. By Monday morning, an unsettled
weather pattern moves into the area again. Models agree on a gradual
progression of a frontal system across the midwest throughout the
week with a couple of disturbances in the overall flow developing.
ECMWF/GFS have placed a shortwave trough crossing Ohio Monday
evening, however, there is still lots of uncertainty around
when/where disturbances will develop and how they will interact with
TS Fred.

Southwesterly flow in the mid levels sets up Monday and persists
throughout the week, ushering in plenty of tropical moisture.
Following ensemble models, have kept pops at chance/slight chance
for the remainder of the period with some thunderstorms developing
during the diurnally favored time frame each afternoon and evening.
Temperatures remain near normal with lows in the 60s and highs in
the 80s for Monday-Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Main concern for early in the TAF period will be the coverage
and intensity of showers and storms. Expect strongest storms
could produce 35-50 mph wind gusts; however, most convection
should stay under this threshold. Main uncertainty is timing the
storms at each site, since this is dependent on subtle details
which continue to challenge high-resolution models. Will track
closely for TAF updates as details become clearer through the
afternoon.

Cold front will slide south through the terminals this evening,
with storm coverage decreasing from north to south concurrently
with a southwest to northwest wind shift. Behind the front,
clouds will decrease as well.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hogue
NEAR TERM...Hogue
SHORT TERM...Hogue
LONG TERM...AR/Cornelissen
AVIATION...Hogue

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
108 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

INZ050-058-059-066-073-074-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-
070>072-141715-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Hardin-Mercer-
Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-
Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-
Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-
108 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central
Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early this
evening. A few thunderstorms may be strong to severe. Damaging winds
will be the primary threat. Locally heavy rainfall will also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

INZ075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ073-074-077>082-088-141715-
Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-
Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
108 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast
Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio and
Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into this
evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible. Damaging winds
will be the primary threat. A few storms may contain locally heavy
rainfall.

Also, the combination of heat and humidity will result in heat
indicies between 95 and 100 degrees this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1104 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0419 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE SPRINGFIELD       39.90N 83.79W
08/12/2021                   CLARK              OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN AT CLARK STATE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

BINAU

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1146 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

INZ075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ073-074-077>082-088-132200-
Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-
Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Ross-Hocking-
Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
Including the cities of Rising Sun, Vevay, Carrollton, Warsaw,
Florence, Burlington, Oakbrook, Covington, Erlanger,
Independence, Newport, Alexandria, Owenton, Williamstown,
Crittenden, Dry Ridge, Falmouth, Butler, Augusta, Brooksville,
Mount Olivet, Maysville, Vanceburg, Tollesboro, Chillicothe,
Logan, Cincinnati, Milford, Georgetown, Mount Orab, Hillsboro,
Greenfield, West Union, Peebles, Waverly, Piketon, Portsmouth,
and Wheelersburg
1146 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY...

A combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will likely
result in the heat index reaching between 95 and 100 degrees this
afternoon.

If you have to be outdoors, please take the necessary precautions
to protect yourself from heat related illnesses. Drink plenty of
fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and
check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should
never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
302 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

OHZ082-088-131945-
Pike OH-Scioto OH-
302 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN PIKE
AND NORTHERN SCIOTO COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

At 301 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was reported near Lucasville,
moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to outdoor
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Clarktown, Lucasville, Beaver, Rarden, Otway, Wakefield,
Lombardsville, Stockdale, Minford, State Route 335 at State Route
776, Mcdermott, Portsmouth Regional Airport, Mount Joy, Bear Creek
and Germany.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3893 8326 3908 8279 3895 8281 3894 8275
      3886 8276 3885 8276 3885 8273 3875 8324
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 249DEG 35KT 3888 8305

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Clark

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
326 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

OHZ064-065-132000-
Fairfield OH-Pickaway OH-
326 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
FAIRFIELD AND CENTRAL PICKAWAY COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

At 326 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was reported near Williamsport,
moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to outdoor
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Circleville, Ashville, South Bloomfield, Williamsport, Logan Elm
Village, Royalton, Fox, Amanda, Stoutsville, Darbyville, Aw Marion
State Park, East Ringgold, Slate Run Metro Park, State Route 138 at
US Route 22 and State Route 674 at State Route 188.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 8267 3957 8273 3956 8273 3955 8314
      3967 8318 3980 8278
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 256DEG 17KT 3963 8311

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Clark

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
330 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

OHZ063-072-073-078>080-132015-
Clermont OH-Highland OH-Brown OH-Ross OH-Fayette OH-Clinton OH-
330 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CLERMONT,
NORTHWESTERN BROWN, SOUTHERN FAYETTE, CENTRAL CLINTON, CENTRAL
HIGHLAND AND NORTHWESTERN ROSS COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

At 329 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were reported along a line
extending from near Washington Court House to near Claryville, moving
east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to outdoor
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Washington Court House, Hillsboro, Greenfield, Blanchester, Amelia,
Mount Orab, Bethel, New Richmond, Sabina, Williamsburg, Batavia,
Lynchburg, Leesburg, New Vienna, Sardinia, Felicity, Withamsville,
Russell, Staunton and New Market.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3890 8424 3895 8429 3903 8432 3960 8352
      3953 8327 3952 8327 3951 8320 3949 8311
      3882 8410
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 262DEG 31KT 3951 8339 3888 8431

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Clark

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
410 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

OHZ079>082-132100-
Pike OH-Highland OH-Adams OH-Brown OH-
410 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL BROWN,
NORTHERN ADAMS, WEST CENTRAL PIKE AND SOUTHEASTERN HIGHLAND COUNTIES
THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

At 410 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were reported along a line
extending from Rocky Fork Point to near Georgetown, moving east at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to outdoor
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hillsboro, Georgetown, West Union, Peebles, Winchester, Marshall,
Sardinia, Seaman, Kincaid Springs, Belfast, Rocky Fork Point,
Highland Holiday, New Market, Emerald, Decatur, Russellville,
Mowrystown, Cherry Fork, Sinking Spring and Dunkinsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3908 8322 3874 8358 3887 8401 3924 8357
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 278DEG 22KT 3921 8350 3890 8386

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Clark