Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
421 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and muggy conditions with scattered storms continue
through the evening under the western periphery of subtropical
high pressure centered off the United States east coast.
The coverage of showers and storms increases Wednesday and
Thursday with a slow-moving frontal system before cooler -- and
a bit drier -- weather returns late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Weak southwesterly flow to continue through the near term on the
backside of subtropical high pressure to the east. A mid-level
trough will slowly dig south into the upper Midwest late tonight
with height falls by morning. Scattered diurnal convection this
evening will slowly decrease in coverage after sunset. Low
temperatures will stay in the low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Heights slowly fall through the day on Wednesday as a weak
frontal boundary sags south into lower Michigan. With cooling
aloft accompanied by weakly convergent low-level flow, expect
showers and storms to increase in coverage by late morning and
continue through the afternoon. Increasing clouds will likely
limit instability to some degree, though shear increases a bit
to the 20-25 knot range by afternoon. Feel this combination
supports HWO mention of potential for a few storms containing
strong to damaging wind gusts.

Highs on Wednesday peak in the low to mid 80s by afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Positively tilted mid level trof to drop south through the Great
Lakes Thursday with surface cold front dropping south through the
Ohio Valley Friday. Have categorical pops across the south and
central counties with the potential for heavy rainfall into Thursday
evening with precipitable water values approaching 2 inches. Model
solutions continue to show this system to be progressive, so any
flood threat looks minimal at this point. Temperatures a little
cooler with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 Thursday.

Additional mid level energy to drop into the trof with a closed low
developing over Eastern Ohio/Western PA late Friday/Saturday. This
will keep low chance pops for diurnally driven showers and embedded
thunderstorms on both days. The best pops will occur across the east
closer to the mid level low and cooler temperatures aloft. Cooler
temperatures will continue with highs Friday and Saturday in the mid
and upper 70s.

This system will push east on Sunday with a slight chance of pcpn
coming to an end. Temperatures look to moderate slightly with highs
around 80 Sunday.

A weak shortwave spilling south around the periphery of a ridge
building into the area may lead to a few showers over the northeast
Monday. Confidence on this feature and associated pcpn is low.
Warming trend to continue with highs on Monday in the mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions to remain through the TAF period with showers and
storms being the main impact to aviation. Scattered coverage
this evening increases Wednesday with the approach of a
weakening cold front. Light southerly winds will continue
outside of storms.

.OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible through Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hogue
NEAR TERM...Hogue
SHORT TERM...Hogue
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Hogue

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
434 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

INZ050-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-302045-
Wayne-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-
Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-
434 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Central
Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected through this evening. A few
of the storms may become strong to severe. The primary threat is
strong to damaging winds. Locally heavy rainfall will also be
possible.

The combination of heat and humidity will push heat index values
into the mid and upper 90s early this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely on Wednesday. A few of the
storms may become strong to severe during the afternoon and evening.
The primary threat is strong to damaging winds. Locally heavy
rainfall will also be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ060>065-070>074-077>082-088-
302045-
Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-
Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-
Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
434 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The combination of heat and humidity will push heat index values
into the mid and upper 90s early this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely on Wednesday. A few of the
storms may become strong to severe during the afternoon and evening.
The primary threat is strong to damaging winds. Locally heavy
rainfall will also be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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