Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
355 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm and humid conditions will occur into the middle of the
week. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase
each day. A cold front will move through the region late in the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Mainly scattered convection was occurring from east central
Indiana northward into west central Ohio this afternoon.
Isolated convection was also found across our far southeast.

For tonight, best chance of an evening shower or storm will
linger from Dayton on north into west central Ohio where the
best plume of pwat remains. Convection should wane overnight
with the loss of daytime heating and in the absence of any real
forcing. It will be warm and muggy with lows in the upper 60s to
the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A mid level ridge centered just off the mid Atlantic coast will
continue to extend west into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Despite
this ridge axis, ample moisture will be in place, and with no
discernible capping inversion, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop by the afternoon hours.
The lack of strong forcing and weak shear will keep the
convection disorganized. It will be very warm with highs in the
upper 80s to the lower 90s. The combination of heat and humidity
will result in heat index values in the lower to mid 90s.

For Monday night, the loss of daytime heating and the lack of
strong forcing will once again result in a diminishing trend in
scattered convection through the night. Skies will range from
partly cloudy to mostly clear. It will be warm and muggy once
again with lows mainly in the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Height falls will begin Wednesday as the upper high moves into the
Atlantic and the longwave trough approaches. The trough will
strengthen over the Great Lakes Thursday night, and cutoff later
overnight or early Friday. The center of the low is being placed
somewhere in the lower Great Lakes or northern Ohio Valley Friday.
This low keeps varying in location and strength between models.
Overall picture keeps the upper low in play through the latter half
of the forecast and then northwest flow kicks in for next week.

Extended EC guidance at 00Z showed a 15-18 standard deviation in 12
hour pops from Thursday through Saturday, with the best statistical
chance of rain occurring Wed and overnight. Temperature forecast
between EC and GFS from 00Z was in sync and only 1-2 degrees from
each other with the exception of Thurs night and Sunday where the
GFS was warmer by 5 deg and then cooler by 6. This bodes well for
the trend - warm and humid, near 90 with dewpoints near 70 and
overnight lows near or in low 70s Tuesday and overnight. This is
essentially a continuation from Monday. Wednesday marks the change
to the beginning of a cooldown as rain develops in the evening and
lingers through Thursday.

Latest 12z GFS was very consistent with the previous run, so the
trend seems to be captured with a reasonable expectation.

Temperatures Wednesday will drop into the 80s and bottom out in the
upper 70s for the weekend under a closed low.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A plume of moisture, in association with the tail of a
departing low level jet, will combine with diurnal heating to
bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to our northwest
forecast area this afternoon. Thus, KDAY will see the highest
chance while other sites will see little to no activity. A VCTS
was continued at KDAY. Winds will be locally gusty from the
south between 18 and 22 knots.

For tonight, the low level jet will depart, and with the airmass
stabilizing, convection will diminish in coverage. Most
locations will see mostly clear skies. Winds will be lighter
tonight which may result in some MVFR visibilities at KLUK.

On Monday, a mid level ridge centered near the mid Atlantic
coast, will continue to extend back to the west across the Ohio
Valley. Despite this ridge, ample moisture will be in place for
cumuliform development by late morning. By early to mid
afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop
during the peak heating of the day. The precipitation is
expected to be disorganized given low overall shear and the lack
of forcing outside diurnal heating. At this juncture, have
added a VCSH at the 30 hour KCVG TAF. It will not be breezy as
the last couple of days will winds from the south between 5 and
10 knots.

.OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Monday through Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Hickman

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
349 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>054-056-060-282000-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-
Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Licking-Preble-
349 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Central
Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ055-061>065-070>074-077>082-088-
282000-
Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-
Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-
Franklin OH-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-
Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-
Pike-Scioto-
349 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast
Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio,
Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The combination of heat and humidity will push heat index values
into the mid 90s on Monday, and into the mid and upper 90s on
Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
248 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

INZ073>075-271915-
Ripley IN-Ohio IN-Dearborn IN-
248 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT OHIO...SOUTHEASTERN RIPLEY AND
SOUTHERN DEARBORN COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 247 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Dillsboro,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...

Locations impacted include...
Aurora, Dillsboro, Wilmington, French, Hartford, Farmers Retreat,
Friendship, Mount Sinai and Cold Springs.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3915 8498 3905 8489 3904 8489 3900 8485
      3893 8515 3901 8520
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 243DEG 22KT 3898 8512

Novak

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
500 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

INZ058-066-272145-
Fayette IN-Franklin IN-
500 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN AND
FAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

At 500 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Rushville,
moving east at 25 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 50 mph...

Locations impacted include...
Connersville, Glenwood, Columbia, Bunker Hill, Laurel, Nulltown,
Bentonville, Alpine and Falmouth.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3976 8530 3979 8520 3974 8518 3971 8518
      3951 8511 3950 8530
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 262DEG 23KT 3958 8550

Novak

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
543 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

OHZ042-272215-
Darke OH-
543 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN DARKE COUNTY
UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 543 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a line
extending from near Union City to near New Paris, moving northeast at
35 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 45 mph...

Locations impacted include...
Greenville, Versailles, Arcanum, Ansonia, New Madison, Wayne Lakes,
Gettysburg, Hollansburg, Palestine, Darke County Airport, Sharpeye,
State Route 47 at US Route 127, Abbottsville, Sharps Crossing and
Pikeville.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 4007 8481 4017 8480 4025 8447 3996 8451
      3993 8481
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 234DEG 29KT 4012 8477 3992 8483

Novak

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
547 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

OHZ034-035-272215-
Auglaize OH-Mercer OH-
547 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN AUGLAIZE AND EAST
CENTRAL MERCER COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 547 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near St. Marys,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Fort Shawnee, Cridersville, Moulton, Buckland,
Neptune, Kossuth, State Route 116 at State Route 197 and Bulkhead.

This includes I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 114 and 118.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 4068 8445 4069 8422 4066 8422 4066 8411
      4064 8411 4064 8403 4050 8442 4064 8454
      4069 8446
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 234DEG 30KT 4059 8439

Novak