Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
404 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will pass southeast of the area this evening.
A second cold front will move through Monday afternoon and
evening. Cooler and drier air will then work into the region for
mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Storms tracking across southeast counties will continue out of
the forecast area by early evening. They may linger longest east
of Columbus as high resolution guidance still suggests that a
weak low may develop along the boundary in central Ohio.
Parameters will remain favorable for strong to severe storms
with damaging wind being the primary threat.

Skies will clear in the evening as drier air filters into the
region. Temperatures will be able to drop into the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Weak surface ridge will extend east-west across the area at the
beginning of the period but will quickly get shunted south as a
cold front moves southeast. Appears that there will be a wave
along the front that will track across west central and central
Ohio. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop near the track
of the low and affect the northeast part of the forecast area in
the afternoon and early evening. Atmosphere will destabilize
and there will be moderate shear. So there will be the potential
for some strong to severe storms in that area. High pressure
will start to build in Monday night bringing clearing.

Highs will still be in the 80s on Monday although it will not be
as humid as over the weekend. Lows will drop into the 50s most
places Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The western edge of an anomalous upper level trough centered over
eastern Canada works into the Ohio Valley from the northeast on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Simultaneously, surface high pressure builds
in from the northwest. Pleasant, cool weather for the middle of June
will result with highs in the middle 70s and lows in the 50s due to
northerly flow. Aside from the outside chance of a light shower in
central Ohio on Tuesday afternoon associated with a weak upper level
shortwave, dry conditions and partly cloudy skies are expected.

Surface high pressure starts shifting off to the east on Thursday
and Thursday night while upper level ridging replaces the trough
from earlier in the week. Moderating temperatures return along with
developing southwesterly flow. Forecast highs are near 80 on
Thursday and lows range from near 60 to the middle 50s Thursday
night.

By the Friday/Friday night timeframe, a low pressure system is
expected to form in southern Canada and push a cold front into the
Ohio Valley from the northwest. Chances for showers and storms
increase along and ahead of the cold front Friday afternoon into
Friday night.

Uncertainty grows a bit beyond Friday night in regards to how far
and how quickly the cold front moves south. Shower/storm chances
remain into the weekend due to the possibility of the front stalling
nearby.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cumulus across the terminals will diminish with loss of heating.
Northwest winds will also decrease around 00Z. Winds will then
become westerly on Monday with a 6-9kt deck of clouds spreading
into the region late in the period.

.OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1030 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>093-OHZ026-034-035-042>045-
051>054-060>062-070-071-077-140830-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Hardin-Mercer-
Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Butler-Warren-Hamilton-
1030 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio
and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

KYZ094>100-OHZ063-072-073-078>082-088-140830-
Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Fayette OH-
Clinton-Ross-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
1030 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Kentucky, Northern
Kentucky, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area between noon
and 2 pm. These storms will become more numerous through the
afternoon as they move east. The atmosphere is conducive to some of
these storms becoming strong to severe with damaging straight line
winds and hail being the primary threats. Most, if not all, of the
storms will move out of the area by 6 to 8 pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed, while following all local, state
and CDC guidelines.

OHZ046-055-056-064-065-074-140830-
Delaware-Franklin OH-Licking-Pickaway-Fairfield-Hocking-
1030 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area between noon
and 2 pm. These storms will become more numerous through the
afternoon as they move east. The atmosphere is conducive to some of
these storms becoming strong to severe with damaging straight line
winds and hail being the primary threats. Most, if not all, of the
storms will move out of the area by 6 to 8 pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday
afternoon. A few of the storms could become strong to severe, with
damaging winds and large hail being the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed, while following all local, state
and CDC guidelines.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
543 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

OHZ079-081-132215-
Adams OH-Brown OH-
543 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL BROWN AND
NORTHWESTERN ADAMS COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 542 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over Seaman,
moving south at 10 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
Pea size hail...
Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
West Union, Winchester, Seaman, Decatur, Cherry Fork, Bentonville,
Dunkinsville and Cedar Mills.

Do not stay in the open or seek shelter under trees when lightning
threatens. Move indoors when a thunderstorm approaches.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3896 8374 3902 8352 3881 8337 3872 8369
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 339DEG 8KT 3892 8361

Coniglio