Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
403 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will pass across the region late tonight into
Sunday. A second cold front will move through Monday afternoon
and evening. Cooler and drier air will then work in for mid
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms across southern counties
will diminish with the loss of heating. Additional showers and
thunderstorms that have developed to the west closer to a weak
cold front will be able to sustain longer into the evening. Thus
expect them to move into the northwest counties. But they should
be on a diminishing trend. It is not clear whether precipitation
will completely dissipate as the front makes its way into the
area. Thus have maintained low chance PoPs near the forecast
boundary position. It will be another warm and muggy night with
lows in the upper 60s to around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Weak front bisecting the area will continue slowly southeast
through the day. Atmosphere will be unstable and expect showers
and thunderstorms to develop and increase in coverage during the
late morning and early afternoon. This activity will push out of
the area before the day is through. Given forecast instability,
cannot rule out a few strong to severe storms. With the front
moving through along with clouds and precipitation, expect highs
to be a little lower with readings in the mid 80s.

In the wake of the front, some ridging will work in which will
allow skies to clear. Lows will fall back into the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper level troughing will begin settling into the Ohio Valley from
the northeast on Monday as a secondary cold front and weak surface
low sweep in from the north Monday afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front due to low level
convergence along the front, afternoon destabilization, and DCVA
associated with an upper level shortwave arriving with the surface
front. Winds shift from the west to the northwest by Monday evening
behind the front bringing cooler and drier air to the region.
Forecast highs are in the middle 80s and forecast lows Monday night
are in the upper 50s.

Upper level troughing amplifies over the Ohio Valley Tuesday through
Wednesday. Simultaneously, surface high pressure builds in from the
northwest. Fair weather will result with highs near 80 and lows in
the 50s under light northerly flow.

Temperatures start moderating on Thursday when surface high pressure
nudges east and upper level heights begin to rise. Developing
southerly flow raises highs into the lower 80s.

The pleasant surface high fully shifts east out of the area on
Friday and the next cold front may start approaching from the
northwest. This results in chances for rain by the end of the work
week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will occur at the terminals through the early
part of the period with some cumulus which will likely diminish
towards 00Z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move in
from the northwest after 00Z although on a weakening trend.
There is enough of a chance to include VCTS at KDAY and VCSH at
KILN and KCMH/KLCK. This precipitation will occur ahead of a
weak front that will move across the region after 06Z. There is
at least a low potential for some additional showers with the
boundary.

Fog development, mainly ahead of the boundary in the
very moist airmass, is uncertain because it is not clear how
much cloud cover will occur. For now, have gone with a
persistence forecast at KLUK where reduced visibilities are most
likely. Looks like there is a window for lower visibilities at
KILN as well. But there is potential for fog to be more
extensive than what is currently reflected in the TAFs. VFR
will be prevalent late in the period with winds becoming
northwest at less than 10 kt in the wake of the front.

.OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1047 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>093-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077-078-080-130845-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Hardin-Mercer-
Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-
Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-
Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-
Clermont-Highland-
1047 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio, South Central
Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

KYZ094>100-OHZ079-081-082-088-130845-
Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Brown-Adams-Pike-
Scioto-
1047 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Kentucky, Northern
Kentucky, South Central Ohio and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday into middle
afternoon. A few of the storms could become strong to severe, with
damaging winds and large hail being the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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