Alert archive / Ohio / Heat Advisories in 2021

Heat Advisory 1, NWS Wilmington, OH

August 11, 202132 counties in Ohio; 8 counties in Indiana; 12 counties in Kentucky

NWS Wilmington, OH issued this heat advisory at Aug 11, 2021, 2:55 PM EDT for 32 counties in Ohio; 8 counties in Indiana; 12 counties in Kentucky. It took effect at Aug 12, 2021, 12:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Aug 11, 2021, 2:55 PM EDT (18:55 UTC)
In effect from
Aug 12, 2021, 12:00 PM EDT
Expired
Aug 12, 2021, 8:00 PM EDT
In force
8 hr
Issued by
NWS Wilmington, OH
All 52 counties

Dearborn County, IN, Fayette County, IN, Franklin County, IN, Ohio County, IN, Ripley County, IN, Switzerland County, IN, Union County, IN, Wayne County, IN, Boone County, KY, Bracken County, KY, Campbell County, KY, Carroll County, KY, Gallatin County, KY, Grant County, KY, Kenton County, KY, Lewis County, KY, Mason County, KY, Owen County, KY, Pendleton County, KY, Robertson County, KY, Adams County, OH, Auglaize County, OH, Brown County, OH, Butler County, OH, Champaign County, OH, Clark County, OH, Clermont County, OH, Clinton County, OH, Darke County, OH, Delaware County, OH, Fairfield County, OH, Fayette County, OH, Franklin County, OH, Greene County, OH, Hamilton County, OH, Hardin County, OH, Highland County, OH, Hocking County, OH, Licking County, OH, Logan County, OH, Madison County, OH, Mercer County, OH, Miami County, OH, Montgomery County, OH, Pickaway County, OH, Pike County, OH, Preble County, OH, Ross County, OH, Scioto County, OH, Shelby County, OH, Union County, OH, Warren County, OH

The radar

The Cincinnati radar (KILN), 20 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 6.9 hours before the alert went out and 22 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2021-08-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1853 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2021-08-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 46 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1853 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-70 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1037 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
10 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
46 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
71 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

776 
WWUS71 KILN 111855
NPWILN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
255 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-120400-
/O.NEW.KILN.HT.Y.0001.210812T1600Z-210813T0000Z/
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-
Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-
Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-
Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-
Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
Including the cities of Richmond, Connersville, Liberty, 
West College Corner, Brookville, Batesville, Milan, Versailles, 
Lawrenceburg, Aurora, Rising Sun, Vevay, Carrollton, Warsaw, 
Florence, Burlington, Oakbrook, Covington, Erlanger, 
Independence, Newport, Alexandria, Owenton, Williamstown, 
Crittenden, Dry Ridge, Falmouth, Butler, Augusta, Brooksville, 
Mount Olivet, Maysville, Vanceburg, Tollesboro, Kenton, Ada, 
Celina, Coldwater, Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Greenville, Sidney, 
Bellefontaine, Marysville, Delaware, Troy, Piqua, Tipp City, 
Urbana, Springfield, London, West Jefferson, Plain City, 
Columbus, Newark, Eaton, Camden, Dayton, Kettering, Beavercreek, 
Fairborn, Xenia, Washington Court House, Circleville, Lancaster, 
Pickerington, Hamilton, Middletown, Fairfield, Oxford, Mason, 
Lebanon, Springboro, Wilmington, Blanchester, Chillicothe, Logan,
Cincinnati, Milford, Georgetown, Mount Orab, Hillsboro, 
Greenfield, West Union, Peebles, Waverly, Piketon, Portsmouth, 
and Wheelersburg
255 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values up to 104 expected.

* WHERE...Portions of East Central and Southeast Indiana, 
  Northeast and Northern Kentucky and Central, South Central, 
  Southwest and West Central Ohio.

* WHEN...From noon to 8 PM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat
  illnesses to occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$
5 follow-up statements
944 
WWUS71 KILN 120155
NPWILN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
955 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-121200-
/O.CON.KILN.HT.Y.0001.210812T1600Z-210813T0000Z/
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-
Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-
Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-
Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-
Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
Including the cities of Richmond, Connersville, Liberty, 
West College Corner, Brookville, Batesville, Milan, Versailles, 
Lawrenceburg, Aurora, Rising Sun, Vevay, Carrollton, Warsaw, 
Florence, Burlington, Oakbrook, Covington, Erlanger, 
Independence, Newport, Alexandria, Owenton, Williamstown, 
Crittenden, Dry Ridge, Falmouth, Butler, Augusta, Brooksville, 
Mount Olivet, Maysville, Vanceburg, Tollesboro, Kenton, Ada, 
Celina, Coldwater, Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Greenville, Sidney, 
Bellefontaine, Marysville, Delaware, Troy, Piqua, Tipp City, 
Urbana, Springfield, London, West Jefferson, Plain City, 
Columbus, Newark, Eaton, Camden, Dayton, Kettering, Beavercreek, 
Fairborn, Xenia, Washington Court House, Circleville, Lancaster, 
Pickerington, Hamilton, Middletown, Fairfield, Oxford, Mason, 
Lebanon, Springboro, Wilmington, Blanchester, Chillicothe, Logan,
Cincinnati, Milford, Georgetown, Mount Orab, Hillsboro, 
Greenfield, West Union, Peebles, Waverly, Piketon, Portsmouth, 
and Wheelersburg
955 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values up to 104 expected.

* WHERE...Portions of East Central and Southeast Indiana, 
  Northeast and Northern Kentucky and Central, South Central, 
  Southwest and West Central Ohio.

* WHEN...From noon to 8 PM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat 
  illnesses to occur.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$
937 
WWUS71 KILN 120732
NPWILN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
332 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-121545-
/O.CON.KILN.HT.Y.0001.210812T1600Z-210813T0000Z/
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-
Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-
Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-
Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-
Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
Including the cities of Richmond, Connersville, Liberty, 
West College Corner, Brookville, Batesville, Milan, Versailles, 
Lawrenceburg, Aurora, Rising Sun, Vevay, Carrollton, Warsaw, 
Florence, Burlington, Oakbrook, Covington, Erlanger, 
Independence, Newport, Alexandria, Owenton, Williamstown, 
Crittenden, Dry Ridge, Falmouth, Butler, Augusta, Brooksville, 
Mount Olivet, Maysville, Vanceburg, Tollesboro, Kenton, Ada, 
Celina, Coldwater, Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Greenville, Sidney, 
Bellefontaine, Marysville, Delaware, Troy, Piqua, Tipp City, 
Urbana, Springfield, London, West Jefferson, Plain City, 
Columbus, Newark, Eaton, Camden, Dayton, Kettering, Beavercreek, 
Fairborn, Xenia, Washington Court House, Circleville, Lancaster, 
Pickerington, Hamilton, Middletown, Fairfield, Oxford, Mason, 
Lebanon, Springboro, Wilmington, Blanchester, Chillicothe, Logan,
Cincinnati, Milford, Georgetown, Mount Orab, Hillsboro, 
Greenfield, West Union, Peebles, Waverly, Piketon, Portsmouth, 
and Wheelersburg
332 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heat index values up to 104 expected.

* WHERE...Portions of East Central and Southeast Indiana, 
  Northeast and Northern Kentucky and Central, South Central, 
  Southwest and West Central Ohio.

* WHEN...From noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat 
  illnesses to occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$
054 
WWUS71 KILN 121314
NPWILN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
914 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-122100-
/O.CON.KILN.HT.Y.0001.210812T1600Z-210813T0000Z/
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-
Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-
Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-
Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-
Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
Including the cities of Richmond, Connersville, Liberty, 
West College Corner, Brookville, Batesville, Milan, Versailles, 
Lawrenceburg, Aurora, Rising Sun, Vevay, Carrollton, Warsaw, 
Florence, Burlington, Oakbrook, Covington, Erlanger, 
Independence, Newport, Alexandria, Owenton, Williamstown, 
Crittenden, Dry Ridge, Falmouth, Butler, Augusta, Brooksville, 
Mount Olivet, Maysville, Vanceburg, Tollesboro, Kenton, Ada, 
Celina, Coldwater, Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Greenville, Sidney, 
Bellefontaine, Marysville, Delaware, Troy, Piqua, Tipp City, 
Urbana, Springfield, London, West Jefferson, Plain City, 
Columbus, Newark, Eaton, Camden, Dayton, Kettering, Beavercreek, 
Fairborn, Xenia, Washington Court House, Circleville, Lancaster, 
Pickerington, Hamilton, Middletown, Fairfield, Oxford, Mason, 
Lebanon, Springboro, Wilmington, Blanchester, Chillicothe, Logan,
Cincinnati, Milford, Georgetown, Mount Orab, Hillsboro, 
Greenfield, West Union, Peebles, Waverly, Piketon, Portsmouth, 
and Wheelersburg
914 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heat index values up to 104 expected.

* WHERE...Portions of East Central and Southeast Indiana, 
  Northeast and Northern Kentucky and Central, South Central, 
  Southwest and West Central Ohio.

* WHEN...From noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat 
  illnesses to occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$
376 
WWUS71 KILN 121921
NPWILN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
321 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-130000-
/O.CON.KILN.HT.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-210813T0000Z/
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-
Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-
Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-
Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-
Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
Including the cities of Richmond, Connersville, Liberty, 
West College Corner, Brookville, Batesville, Milan, Versailles, 
Lawrenceburg, Aurora, Rising Sun, Vevay, Carrollton, Warsaw, 
Florence, Burlington, Oakbrook, Covington, Erlanger, 
Independence, Newport, Alexandria, Owenton, Williamstown, 
Crittenden, Dry Ridge, Falmouth, Butler, Augusta, Brooksville, 
Mount Olivet, Maysville, Vanceburg, Tollesboro, Kenton, Ada, 
Celina, Coldwater, Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Greenville, Sidney, 
Bellefontaine, Marysville, Delaware, Troy, Piqua, Tipp City, 
Urbana, Springfield, London, West Jefferson, Plain City, 
Columbus, Newark, Eaton, Camden, Dayton, Kettering, Beavercreek, 
Fairborn, Xenia, Washington Court House, Circleville, Lancaster, 
Pickerington, Hamilton, Middletown, Fairfield, Oxford, Mason, 
Lebanon, Springboro, Wilmington, Blanchester, Chillicothe, Logan,
Cincinnati, Milford, Georgetown, Mount Orab, Hillsboro, 
Greenfield, West Union, Peebles, Waverly, Piketon, Portsmouth, 
and Wheelersburg
321 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heat index values up to 104 expected.

* WHERE...Portions of East Central and Southeast Indiana, 
  Northeast and Northern Kentucky and Central, South Central, 
  Southwest and West Central Ohio.

* WHEN...From noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat 
  illnesses to occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$
573 
WWUS71 KILN 122357
NPWILN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
757 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-130100-
/O.EXP.KILN.HT.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-210813T0000Z/
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-
Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-
Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-
Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-
Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
Including the cities of Richmond, Connersville, Liberty, 
West College Corner, Brookville, Batesville, Milan, Versailles, 
Lawrenceburg, Aurora, Rising Sun, Vevay, Carrollton, Warsaw, 
Florence, Burlington, Oakbrook, Covington, Erlanger, 
Independence, Newport, Alexandria, Owenton, Williamstown, 
Crittenden, Dry Ridge, Falmouth, Butler, Augusta, Brooksville, 
Mount Olivet, Maysville, Vanceburg, Tollesboro, Kenton, Ada, 
Celina, Coldwater, Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Greenville, Sidney, 
Bellefontaine, Marysville, Delaware, Troy, Piqua, Tipp City, 
Urbana, Springfield, London, West Jefferson, Plain City, 
Columbus, Newark, Eaton, Camden, Dayton, Kettering, Beavercreek, 
Fairborn, Xenia, Washington Court House, Circleville, Lancaster, 
Pickerington, Hamilton, Middletown, Fairfield, Oxford, Mason, 
Lebanon, Springboro, Wilmington, Blanchester, Chillicothe, Logan,
Cincinnati, Milford, Georgetown, Mount Orab, Hillsboro, 
Greenfield, West Union, Peebles, Waverly, Piketon, Portsmouth, 
and Wheelersburg
757 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...


$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this heat advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Wilmington, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before this heat advisory went out at Aug 11, 1:24 PM EDT, 1 hour 31 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 11, 1:24 PM EDT, 1 hour 31 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
124 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions continue through Friday along with periodic
chances for showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will move
through the area of Friday bringing cooler, drier air for the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The weather pattern today will feature very warm and humid
conditions that will lead to heat indicies in the 95-100 degree
range. The areas where heat indicies will be closer to 100 look
to primarily be more towards the Tri-state as dewpoints will be
a degree or two higher further west, and fewer debris clouds
currently exist in our southwestern. Meanwhile, ongoing
convection just north of the CWA is spreading a fair amount of
low-level clouds in portions of central and west-central Ohio,
which may keep the heat index closer to 95 during the peak of
daytime heating. Continued to handle the heat index values with
an SPS for today as criteria for a Heat Advisory will be
limited.

Alongside the excessive heat, the other main feature to be aware
of today will be a strengthening MCS that is currently moving
through north-central Illinois. Radar currently indicates winds
in excess of 60 mph for the northern part of the MCS, with a few
spots potentially in excess of 70 mph. The HRRR has begun to
pick up on this system, pushing the southern tier of this MCS
into our northern counties by the early to mid afternoon.
However, the latest 12z NAM 3K weakens this system substantially
by the time it pushes into Indiana, leaving little to no
precipitation for our counties. CAMs once again offer widely
varying solutions in this weakly forced environment - but this
system will be the main feature to monitor as we progress
through the late morning and early afternoon hours. If it holds
together, a number of our northern counties could end up
observing strong to severe straight-line winds. The time range
we would be most concerned about would be from roughly 2-7 PM.
And while hail cannot be completely ruled out, winds would be
the primary threat from this system. There is definitely no
shortage in the amount of instability today, and while there is
slightly better shear today from a southward digging trough, the
best shear continues to remain north of our CWA which may
partially hinder the organization/intensity of the MCS as it
approaches. Have updated the grids to reflect the better chance
for afternoon storms across our northern half of the fa.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A broad mid and upper level trough will remain just north of the
area overnight tonight into Thursday. This results in lack of any
clear upper level forcing for precipitation. Current CAM guidance
suggests diurnal convection today is likely to die off during the
early evening resulting in dry conditions overnight. There is a
slight chance that outflow from left over diurnal thunderstorm
complexes could lead to a shower or two, but left the forecast
without chances of rain by late overnight. Forecast lows are in the
middle 70s.

Thursday will feature the same uncertainty as the past few days in
regards to precipitation and heat. One one hand, heat headlines may
be needed if there is no convection or convective debris are in the
area. But, there is once again the chance for showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon due to a highly unstable atmosphere
being in place. Synoptically speaking, the best chance for storms
will likely be along and north of I-70 closer to the longwave upper
level trough. However, CAMS are suggesting the possibility of
thunderstorm complexes forming near the Ohio River Thursday
afternoon. Due to this uncertainty, have included at least slight
chance of showers/storms everywhere in the afternoon. Also, have
elected to hold off on heat headline issuance for now due to only
moderate probability of occurrence thanks to the possibility of
thunderstorms. Any storms that do form could be strong and pose a
damaging wind threat. Forecast high are in the lower to middle
90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An unsettled pattern will remain in place through Friday, with ample
heat and humidity coinciding with episodic chances for showers and
storms through Friday night before relief in the form of a cold
front moves through by this upcoming weekend.

Aloft, flow is largely zonal across the OH Vly for the start of the
period, with an elongated high stretched from near Bermuda to TN and
an unseasonably deep/strong longwave trof axis centered over south-
central Canada dipping into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Expect
that the aforementioned cold front /finally/ drifts south into the
Great Lakes/OH Vly regions Friday evening/night, signaling the end
to the stagnant/muggy/stormy pattern for the upcoming weekend before
more seasonable warmth and humidity once again gradually return
early next week.

Some of the more recent guidance has suggested a potential lull in
convective activity across the region Thursday night without a
midlevel impulse rippling through the midlevel flow during this
time. While this trend is encouraging, it should be taken with a
rather large grain of salt as many times these weak forcing/large
instby (even nocturnal) scenarios waffle back and forth many times
and are handled rather poorly even by the more-skilled hi-res short-
term guidance offered by the HRRR/RAP/ARW/NSSL-WRF, etc. These
environments so often times get modulated quite significantly by
small-scale features, such as outflows, MCVs, cold pools, etc. which
both increase or decrease the environment's capability of producing
widespread convection on a smaller temporal scale. By Friday, the
large-scale forcing, characterized by slightly stronger deep-layer
flow and increased LL convergence along the slowly-propagating
frontal boundary will provide the best chance for convection in a
widespread manner. There are still some model differences in the
timing of the boundary shifting south through the ILN FA, with some
guidance pointing more toward a Friday evening progression to/south
of the OH Rvr. Nevertheless, even without the details known at this
point, from an ingredients-based perspective and considering the
overall setup, do feel that strong to severe storms will be likely
Friday afternoon/evening, which could last into the nighttime,
depending on the timing of things. The large-scale ascent and decent
LL convergence will promote widespread convection amidst a highly
unstable environment. Will likely see the maintenance of 15% severe
probs for Day 3 by SPC, with damaging winds, large hail, and
torrential downpours/localized flooding being the primary threats.
Will continue mention in the HWO.

It should be mentioned, too, that any convective activity Friday
afternoon through early Friday night will be capable of
producing torrential rainfall rates and localized flooding.
There is the potential that one or more complexes of storms
produce a flooding threat that is more than just isolated in
nature should the propagation of such complex(es) result in
training or backbuilding of convection, but the details of such
potential will only come into focus as we get closer to the end
of the week.

High confidence continues in a return to more mild temperatures and
lower humidity for the latter part of Saturday through Monday with
dry conditions, especially north of the OH Rvr. A somewhat messy
midlevel flow pattern may set up early next week, with
weak/meandering midlevel lows/disturbances amidst a /very/ broad
midlevel pressure pattern. This suggests a return to diurnally-
driven pulse storm chances by Monday and/or Tuesday with near normal
temperatures and a return to slightly more humid conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are likely to prevail through the taf period,
with the only exception being if a shower or storm were to move
over a taf site. For the rest of this afternoon, KDAY/KCMH/KLCK
would likely have the best chances at observing a passing shower
or storm, but uncertainty still remains high, so just left a
VCSH in through the evening. The forecast will trend drier for
tonight, which may even persist into much of Thursday based on
latest guidance.

Southwesterly winds will remain around 10-15 kts sustained today
with gusts near 20 kts. Winds will be very similar for Thursday
with no major change in direction or magnitude.

OUTLOOK... The threat for thunderstorms will continue through
Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Clark
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Clark
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 11, 4:10 AM EDT, 10 hours 45 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
410 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-120815-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
410 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe storms are possible today with damaging winds being
the main threat. Locally heavy rain is also possible with the
strongest storms.

The heat index may reach between 95 and 100 today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The heat index may reach between 100 and 105 on Thursday.

Strong to severe storms are possible Thursday and Friday with
damaging winds being the main threat. Locally heavy rain is also
possible with the strongest storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 11, 10:45 AM EDT, 4 hours 10 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1045 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-120000-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-
Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-
Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-
Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-
Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
Including the cities of Richmond, Connersville, Liberty,
West College Corner, Brookville, Batesville, Milan, Versailles,
Lawrenceburg, Aurora, Rising Sun, Vevay, Carrollton, Warsaw,
Florence, Burlington, Oakbrook, Covington, Erlanger,
Independence, Newport, Alexandria, Owenton, Williamstown,
Crittenden, Dry Ridge, Falmouth, Butler, Augusta, Brooksville,
Mount Olivet, Maysville, Vanceburg, Tollesboro, Kenton, Ada,
Celina, Coldwater, Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Greenville, Sidney,
Bellefontaine, Marysville, Delaware, Troy, Piqua, Tipp City,
Urbana, Springfield, London, West Jefferson, Plain City,
Columbus, Newark, Eaton, Camden, Dayton, Kettering, Beavercreek,
Fairborn, Xenia, Washington Court House, Circleville, Lancaster,
Pickerington, Hamilton, Middletown, Fairfield, Oxford, Mason,
Lebanon, Springboro, Wilmington, Blanchester, Chillicothe, Logan,
Cincinnati, Milford, Georgetown, Mount Orab, Hillsboro,
Greenfield, West Union, Peebles, Waverly, Piketon, Portsmouth,
and Wheelersburg
1045 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

A combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will likely
result in the heat index reaching between 95 and 100 this
afternoon into the early evening.

If you have to be outdoors, please take the necessary precautions
to protect yourself from heat related illnesses. Drink plenty of fluids,
stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up
on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be
left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Wilmington, OH issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 11, 1:07 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementILNMercer38 min
Aug 11, 3:14 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementILNLicking31 min
Aug 11, 3:44 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementILNLicking31 min
Aug 11, 8:34 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementILNHardin41 min
Aug 11, 2:18 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILNAuglaize, Mercer57 min
Aug 11, 3:03 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementILNDarke27 min
Aug 11, 3:10 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILNAuglaize, Darke, Logan, Mercer, Shelby65 min
Aug 11, 3:19 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILNHardin, Logan56 min
Aug 11, 3:47 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILNDarke, Miami, Shelby41 min
Aug 11, 3:52 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementILNChampaign, Logan23 min
Aug 11, 4:11 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementILNHardin19 min
Aug 11, 4:16 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementILNUnion29 min
Aug 11, 4:24 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILNDelaware, Logan, Union37 min
Aug 11, 4:30 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementILNChampaign30 min
Aug 11, 4:47 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementILNFranklin, Madison28 min
Aug 11, 4:58 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementILNLicking32 min
Aug 11, 5:03 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILNDelaware, Franklin, Madison, Union42 min
Aug 11, 5:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILNLicking41 min
Aug 11, 5:37 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementILNFairfield23 min
Aug 11, 5:58 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementILNFairfield32 min

Nearby

Heat Advisories in Ohio, 2021Heat Advisories in Kentucky, 2021Heat Advisories in Indiana, 2021Every heat advisory in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.