Alert archive / Ohio / Heat Advisories in 2021
Heat Advisory 1, NWS Wilmington, OH
NWS Wilmington, OH issued this heat advisory at Aug 11, 2021, 2:55 PM EDT for 32 counties in Ohio; 8 counties in Indiana; 12 counties in Kentucky. It took effect at Aug 12, 2021, 12:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 8 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 11, 2021, 2:55 PM EDT (18:55 UTC)
- In effect from
- Aug 12, 2021, 12:00 PM EDT
- Expired
- Aug 12, 2021, 8:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 8 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Wilmington, OH
All 52 counties
Dearborn County, IN, Fayette County, IN, Franklin County, IN, Ohio County, IN, Ripley County, IN, Switzerland County, IN, Union County, IN, Wayne County, IN, Boone County, KY, Bracken County, KY, Campbell County, KY, Carroll County, KY, Gallatin County, KY, Grant County, KY, Kenton County, KY, Lewis County, KY, Mason County, KY, Owen County, KY, Pendleton County, KY, Robertson County, KY, Adams County, OH, Auglaize County, OH, Brown County, OH, Butler County, OH, Champaign County, OH, Clark County, OH, Clermont County, OH, Clinton County, OH, Darke County, OH, Delaware County, OH, Fairfield County, OH, Fayette County, OH, Franklin County, OH, Greene County, OH, Hamilton County, OH, Hardin County, OH, Highland County, OH, Hocking County, OH, Licking County, OH, Logan County, OH, Madison County, OH, Mercer County, OH, Miami County, OH, Montgomery County, OH, Pickaway County, OH, Pike County, OH, Preble County, OH, Ross County, OH, Scioto County, OH, Shelby County, OH, Union County, OH, Warren County, OH
The radar
The Cincinnati radar (KILN), 20 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 6.9 hours before the alert went out and 22 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1853 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -70 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1037 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 10 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 46 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 71 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
776 WWUS71 KILN 111855 NPWILN URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wilmington OH 255 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-120400- /O.NEW.KILN.HT.Y.0001.210812T1600Z-210813T0000Z/ Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio- Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant- Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize- Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark- Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH- Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton- Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto- Including the cities of Richmond, Connersville, Liberty, West College Corner, Brookville, Batesville, Milan, Versailles, Lawrenceburg, Aurora, Rising Sun, Vevay, Carrollton, Warsaw, Florence, Burlington, Oakbrook, Covington, Erlanger, Independence, Newport, Alexandria, Owenton, Williamstown, Crittenden, Dry Ridge, Falmouth, Butler, Augusta, Brooksville, Mount Olivet, Maysville, Vanceburg, Tollesboro, Kenton, Ada, Celina, Coldwater, Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Greenville, Sidney, Bellefontaine, Marysville, Delaware, Troy, Piqua, Tipp City, Urbana, Springfield, London, West Jefferson, Plain City, Columbus, Newark, Eaton, Camden, Dayton, Kettering, Beavercreek, Fairborn, Xenia, Washington Court House, Circleville, Lancaster, Pickerington, Hamilton, Middletown, Fairfield, Oxford, Mason, Lebanon, Springboro, Wilmington, Blanchester, Chillicothe, Logan, Cincinnati, Milford, Georgetown, Mount Orab, Hillsboro, Greenfield, West Union, Peebles, Waverly, Piketon, Portsmouth, and Wheelersburg 255 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heat index values up to 104 expected. * WHERE...Portions of East Central and Southeast Indiana, Northeast and Northern Kentucky and Central, South Central, Southwest and West Central Ohio. * WHEN...From noon to 8 PM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses to occur. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1. && $$
5 follow-up statements
944 WWUS71 KILN 120155 NPWILN URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wilmington OH 955 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-121200- /O.CON.KILN.HT.Y.0001.210812T1600Z-210813T0000Z/ Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio- Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant- Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize- Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark- Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH- Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton- Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto- Including the cities of Richmond, Connersville, Liberty, West College Corner, Brookville, Batesville, Milan, Versailles, Lawrenceburg, Aurora, Rising Sun, Vevay, Carrollton, Warsaw, Florence, Burlington, Oakbrook, Covington, Erlanger, Independence, Newport, Alexandria, Owenton, Williamstown, Crittenden, Dry Ridge, Falmouth, Butler, Augusta, Brooksville, Mount Olivet, Maysville, Vanceburg, Tollesboro, Kenton, Ada, Celina, Coldwater, Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Greenville, Sidney, Bellefontaine, Marysville, Delaware, Troy, Piqua, Tipp City, Urbana, Springfield, London, West Jefferson, Plain City, Columbus, Newark, Eaton, Camden, Dayton, Kettering, Beavercreek, Fairborn, Xenia, Washington Court House, Circleville, Lancaster, Pickerington, Hamilton, Middletown, Fairfield, Oxford, Mason, Lebanon, Springboro, Wilmington, Blanchester, Chillicothe, Logan, Cincinnati, Milford, Georgetown, Mount Orab, Hillsboro, Greenfield, West Union, Peebles, Waverly, Piketon, Portsmouth, and Wheelersburg 955 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heat index values up to 104 expected. * WHERE...Portions of East Central and Southeast Indiana, Northeast and Northern Kentucky and Central, South Central, Southwest and West Central Ohio. * WHEN...From noon to 8 PM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses to occur. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1. && $$
937 WWUS71 KILN 120732 NPWILN URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wilmington OH 332 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-121545- /O.CON.KILN.HT.Y.0001.210812T1600Z-210813T0000Z/ Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio- Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant- Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize- Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark- Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH- Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton- Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto- Including the cities of Richmond, Connersville, Liberty, West College Corner, Brookville, Batesville, Milan, Versailles, Lawrenceburg, Aurora, Rising Sun, Vevay, Carrollton, Warsaw, Florence, Burlington, Oakbrook, Covington, Erlanger, Independence, Newport, Alexandria, Owenton, Williamstown, Crittenden, Dry Ridge, Falmouth, Butler, Augusta, Brooksville, Mount Olivet, Maysville, Vanceburg, Tollesboro, Kenton, Ada, Celina, Coldwater, Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Greenville, Sidney, Bellefontaine, Marysville, Delaware, Troy, Piqua, Tipp City, Urbana, Springfield, London, West Jefferson, Plain City, Columbus, Newark, Eaton, Camden, Dayton, Kettering, Beavercreek, Fairborn, Xenia, Washington Court House, Circleville, Lancaster, Pickerington, Hamilton, Middletown, Fairfield, Oxford, Mason, Lebanon, Springboro, Wilmington, Blanchester, Chillicothe, Logan, Cincinnati, Milford, Georgetown, Mount Orab, Hillsboro, Greenfield, West Union, Peebles, Waverly, Piketon, Portsmouth, and Wheelersburg 332 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heat index values up to 104 expected. * WHERE...Portions of East Central and Southeast Indiana, Northeast and Northern Kentucky and Central, South Central, Southwest and West Central Ohio. * WHEN...From noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses to occur. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1. && $$
054 WWUS71 KILN 121314 NPWILN URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wilmington OH 914 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-122100- /O.CON.KILN.HT.Y.0001.210812T1600Z-210813T0000Z/ Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio- Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant- Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize- Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark- Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH- Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton- Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto- Including the cities of Richmond, Connersville, Liberty, West College Corner, Brookville, Batesville, Milan, Versailles, Lawrenceburg, Aurora, Rising Sun, Vevay, Carrollton, Warsaw, Florence, Burlington, Oakbrook, Covington, Erlanger, Independence, Newport, Alexandria, Owenton, Williamstown, Crittenden, Dry Ridge, Falmouth, Butler, Augusta, Brooksville, Mount Olivet, Maysville, Vanceburg, Tollesboro, Kenton, Ada, Celina, Coldwater, Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Greenville, Sidney, Bellefontaine, Marysville, Delaware, Troy, Piqua, Tipp City, Urbana, Springfield, London, West Jefferson, Plain City, Columbus, Newark, Eaton, Camden, Dayton, Kettering, Beavercreek, Fairborn, Xenia, Washington Court House, Circleville, Lancaster, Pickerington, Hamilton, Middletown, Fairfield, Oxford, Mason, Lebanon, Springboro, Wilmington, Blanchester, Chillicothe, Logan, Cincinnati, Milford, Georgetown, Mount Orab, Hillsboro, Greenfield, West Union, Peebles, Waverly, Piketon, Portsmouth, and Wheelersburg 914 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heat index values up to 104 expected. * WHERE...Portions of East Central and Southeast Indiana, Northeast and Northern Kentucky and Central, South Central, Southwest and West Central Ohio. * WHEN...From noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses to occur. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1. && $$
376 WWUS71 KILN 121921 NPWILN URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wilmington OH 321 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-130000- /O.CON.KILN.HT.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-210813T0000Z/ Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio- Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant- Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize- Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark- Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH- Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton- Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto- Including the cities of Richmond, Connersville, Liberty, West College Corner, Brookville, Batesville, Milan, Versailles, Lawrenceburg, Aurora, Rising Sun, Vevay, Carrollton, Warsaw, Florence, Burlington, Oakbrook, Covington, Erlanger, Independence, Newport, Alexandria, Owenton, Williamstown, Crittenden, Dry Ridge, Falmouth, Butler, Augusta, Brooksville, Mount Olivet, Maysville, Vanceburg, Tollesboro, Kenton, Ada, Celina, Coldwater, Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Greenville, Sidney, Bellefontaine, Marysville, Delaware, Troy, Piqua, Tipp City, Urbana, Springfield, London, West Jefferson, Plain City, Columbus, Newark, Eaton, Camden, Dayton, Kettering, Beavercreek, Fairborn, Xenia, Washington Court House, Circleville, Lancaster, Pickerington, Hamilton, Middletown, Fairfield, Oxford, Mason, Lebanon, Springboro, Wilmington, Blanchester, Chillicothe, Logan, Cincinnati, Milford, Georgetown, Mount Orab, Hillsboro, Greenfield, West Union, Peebles, Waverly, Piketon, Portsmouth, and Wheelersburg 321 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heat index values up to 104 expected. * WHERE...Portions of East Central and Southeast Indiana, Northeast and Northern Kentucky and Central, South Central, Southwest and West Central Ohio. * WHEN...From noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses to occur. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1. && $$
573 WWUS71 KILN 122357 NPWILN URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wilmington OH 757 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-130100- /O.EXP.KILN.HT.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-210813T0000Z/ Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio- Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant- Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize- Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark- Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH- Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton- Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto- Including the cities of Richmond, Connersville, Liberty, West College Corner, Brookville, Batesville, Milan, Versailles, Lawrenceburg, Aurora, Rising Sun, Vevay, Carrollton, Warsaw, Florence, Burlington, Oakbrook, Covington, Erlanger, Independence, Newport, Alexandria, Owenton, Williamstown, Crittenden, Dry Ridge, Falmouth, Butler, Augusta, Brooksville, Mount Olivet, Maysville, Vanceburg, Tollesboro, Kenton, Ada, Celina, Coldwater, Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Greenville, Sidney, Bellefontaine, Marysville, Delaware, Troy, Piqua, Tipp City, Urbana, Springfield, London, West Jefferson, Plain City, Columbus, Newark, Eaton, Camden, Dayton, Kettering, Beavercreek, Fairborn, Xenia, Washington Court House, Circleville, Lancaster, Pickerington, Hamilton, Middletown, Fairfield, Oxford, Mason, Lebanon, Springboro, Wilmington, Blanchester, Chillicothe, Logan, Cincinnati, Milford, Georgetown, Mount Orab, Hillsboro, Greenfield, West Union, Peebles, Waverly, Piketon, Portsmouth, and Wheelersburg 757 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 ...HEAT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this heat advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before this heat advisory went out at Aug 11, 1:24 PM EDT, 1 hour 31 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 11, 1:24 PM EDT, 1 hour 31 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 124 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid conditions continue through Friday along with periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will move through the area of Friday bringing cooler, drier air for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The weather pattern today will feature very warm and humid conditions that will lead to heat indicies in the 95-100 degree range. The areas where heat indicies will be closer to 100 look to primarily be more towards the Tri-state as dewpoints will be a degree or two higher further west, and fewer debris clouds currently exist in our southwestern. Meanwhile, ongoing convection just north of the CWA is spreading a fair amount of low-level clouds in portions of central and west-central Ohio, which may keep the heat index closer to 95 during the peak of daytime heating. Continued to handle the heat index values with an SPS for today as criteria for a Heat Advisory will be limited. Alongside the excessive heat, the other main feature to be aware of today will be a strengthening MCS that is currently moving through north-central Illinois. Radar currently indicates winds in excess of 60 mph for the northern part of the MCS, with a few spots potentially in excess of 70 mph. The HRRR has begun to pick up on this system, pushing the southern tier of this MCS into our northern counties by the early to mid afternoon. However, the latest 12z NAM 3K weakens this system substantially by the time it pushes into Indiana, leaving little to no precipitation for our counties. CAMs once again offer widely varying solutions in this weakly forced environment - but this system will be the main feature to monitor as we progress through the late morning and early afternoon hours. If it holds together, a number of our northern counties could end up observing strong to severe straight-line winds. The time range we would be most concerned about would be from roughly 2-7 PM. And while hail cannot be completely ruled out, winds would be the primary threat from this system. There is definitely no shortage in the amount of instability today, and while there is slightly better shear today from a southward digging trough, the best shear continues to remain north of our CWA which may partially hinder the organization/intensity of the MCS as it approaches. Have updated the grids to reflect the better chance for afternoon storms across our northern half of the fa. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... A broad mid and upper level trough will remain just north of the area overnight tonight into Thursday. This results in lack of any clear upper level forcing for precipitation. Current CAM guidance suggests diurnal convection today is likely to die off during the early evening resulting in dry conditions overnight. There is a slight chance that outflow from left over diurnal thunderstorm complexes could lead to a shower or two, but left the forecast without chances of rain by late overnight. Forecast lows are in the middle 70s. Thursday will feature the same uncertainty as the past few days in regards to precipitation and heat. One one hand, heat headlines may be needed if there is no convection or convective debris are in the area. But, there is once again the chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon due to a highly unstable atmosphere being in place. Synoptically speaking, the best chance for storms will likely be along and north of I-70 closer to the longwave upper level trough. However, CAMS are suggesting the possibility of thunderstorm complexes forming near the Ohio River Thursday afternoon. Due to this uncertainty, have included at least slight chance of showers/storms everywhere in the afternoon. Also, have elected to hold off on heat headline issuance for now due to only moderate probability of occurrence thanks to the possibility of thunderstorms. Any storms that do form could be strong and pose a damaging wind threat. Forecast high are in the lower to middle 90s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... An unsettled pattern will remain in place through Friday, with ample heat and humidity coinciding with episodic chances for showers and storms through Friday night before relief in the form of a cold front moves through by this upcoming weekend. Aloft, flow is largely zonal across the OH Vly for the start of the period, with an elongated high stretched from near Bermuda to TN and an unseasonably deep/strong longwave trof axis centered over south- central Canada dipping into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Expect that the aforementioned cold front /finally/ drifts south into the Great Lakes/OH Vly regions Friday evening/night, signaling the end to the stagnant/muggy/stormy pattern for the upcoming weekend before more seasonable warmth and humidity once again gradually return early next week. Some of the more recent guidance has suggested a potential lull in convective activity across the region Thursday night without a midlevel impulse rippling through the midlevel flow during this time. While this trend is encouraging, it should be taken with a rather large grain of salt as many times these weak forcing/large instby (even nocturnal) scenarios waffle back and forth many times and are handled rather poorly even by the more-skilled hi-res short- term guidance offered by the HRRR/RAP/ARW/NSSL-WRF, etc. These environments so often times get modulated quite significantly by small-scale features, such as outflows, MCVs, cold pools, etc. which both increase or decrease the environment's capability of producing widespread convection on a smaller temporal scale. By Friday, the large-scale forcing, characterized by slightly stronger deep-layer flow and increased LL convergence along the slowly-propagating frontal boundary will provide the best chance for convection in a widespread manner. There are still some model differences in the timing of the boundary shifting south through the ILN FA, with some guidance pointing more toward a Friday evening progression to/south of the OH Rvr. Nevertheless, even without the details known at this point, from an ingredients-based perspective and considering the overall setup, do feel that strong to severe storms will be likely Friday afternoon/evening, which could last into the nighttime, depending on the timing of things. The large-scale ascent and decent LL convergence will promote widespread convection amidst a highly unstable environment. Will likely see the maintenance of 15% severe probs for Day 3 by SPC, with damaging winds, large hail, and torrential downpours/localized flooding being the primary threats. Will continue mention in the HWO. It should be mentioned, too, that any convective activity Friday afternoon through early Friday night will be capable of producing torrential rainfall rates and localized flooding. There is the potential that one or more complexes of storms produce a flooding threat that is more than just isolated in nature should the propagation of such complex(es) result in training or backbuilding of convection, but the details of such potential will only come into focus as we get closer to the end of the week. High confidence continues in a return to more mild temperatures and lower humidity for the latter part of Saturday through Monday with dry conditions, especially north of the OH Rvr. A somewhat messy midlevel flow pattern may set up early next week, with weak/meandering midlevel lows/disturbances amidst a /very/ broad midlevel pressure pattern. This suggests a return to diurnally- driven pulse storm chances by Monday and/or Tuesday with near normal temperatures and a return to slightly more humid conditions. && .AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions are likely to prevail through the taf period, with the only exception being if a shower or storm were to move over a taf site. For the rest of this afternoon, KDAY/KCMH/KLCK would likely have the best chances at observing a passing shower or storm, but uncertainty still remains high, so just left a VCSH in through the evening. The forecast will trend drier for tonight, which may even persist into much of Thursday based on latest guidance. Southwesterly winds will remain around 10-15 kts sustained today with gusts near 20 kts. Winds will be very similar for Thursday with no major change in direction or magnitude. OUTLOOK... The threat for thunderstorms will continue through Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && SYNOPSIS...Campbell NEAR TERM...Clark SHORT TERM...Campbell LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...Clark
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 11, 4:10 AM EDT, 10 hours 45 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wilmington OH 410 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-120815- Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio- Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant- Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke- Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison- Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway- Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown- Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto- 410 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Strong to severe storms are possible today with damaging winds being the main threat. Locally heavy rain is also possible with the strongest storms. The heat index may reach between 95 and 100 today. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. The heat index may reach between 100 and 105 on Thursday. Strong to severe storms are possible Thursday and Friday with damaging winds being the main threat. Locally heavy rain is also possible with the strongest storms. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 11, 10:45 AM EDT, 4 hours 10 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1045 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-120000- Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio- Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant- Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize- Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark- Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH- Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton- Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto- Including the cities of Richmond, Connersville, Liberty, West College Corner, Brookville, Batesville, Milan, Versailles, Lawrenceburg, Aurora, Rising Sun, Vevay, Carrollton, Warsaw, Florence, Burlington, Oakbrook, Covington, Erlanger, Independence, Newport, Alexandria, Owenton, Williamstown, Crittenden, Dry Ridge, Falmouth, Butler, Augusta, Brooksville, Mount Olivet, Maysville, Vanceburg, Tollesboro, Kenton, Ada, Celina, Coldwater, Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Greenville, Sidney, Bellefontaine, Marysville, Delaware, Troy, Piqua, Tipp City, Urbana, Springfield, London, West Jefferson, Plain City, Columbus, Newark, Eaton, Camden, Dayton, Kettering, Beavercreek, Fairborn, Xenia, Washington Court House, Circleville, Lancaster, Pickerington, Hamilton, Middletown, Fairfield, Oxford, Mason, Lebanon, Springboro, Wilmington, Blanchester, Chillicothe, Logan, Cincinnati, Milford, Georgetown, Mount Orab, Hillsboro, Greenfield, West Union, Peebles, Waverly, Piketon, Portsmouth, and Wheelersburg 1045 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 A combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will likely result in the heat index reaching between 95 and 100 this afternoon into the early evening. If you have to be outdoors, please take the necessary precautions to protect yourself from heat related illnesses. Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Wilmington, OH issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 1:07 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | ILN | Mercer | 38 min |
| Aug 11, 3:14 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | ILN | Licking | 31 min |
| Aug 11, 3:44 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | ILN | Licking | 31 min |
| Aug 11, 8:34 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | ILN | Hardin | 41 min |
| Aug 11, 2:18 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ILN | Auglaize, Mercer | 57 min |
| Aug 11, 3:03 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | ILN | Darke | 27 min |
| Aug 11, 3:10 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ILN | Auglaize, Darke, Logan, Mercer, Shelby | 65 min |
| Aug 11, 3:19 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ILN | Hardin, Logan | 56 min |
| Aug 11, 3:47 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ILN | Darke, Miami, Shelby | 41 min |
| Aug 11, 3:52 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | ILN | Champaign, Logan | 23 min |
| Aug 11, 4:11 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | ILN | Hardin | 19 min |
| Aug 11, 4:16 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | ILN | Union | 29 min |
| Aug 11, 4:24 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ILN | Delaware, Logan, Union | 37 min |
| Aug 11, 4:30 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | ILN | Champaign | 30 min |
| Aug 11, 4:47 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | ILN | Franklin, Madison | 28 min |
| Aug 11, 4:58 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | ILN | Licking | 32 min |
| Aug 11, 5:03 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ILN | Delaware, Franklin, Madison, Union | 42 min |
| Aug 11, 5:30 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ILN | Licking | 41 min |
| Aug 11, 5:37 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | ILN | Fairfield | 23 min |
| Aug 11, 5:58 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | ILN | Fairfield | 32 min |
Nearby
Heat Advisories in Ohio, 2021Heat Advisories in Kentucky, 2021Heat Advisories in Indiana, 2021Every heat advisory in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.