Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1206 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda High pressure will maintain seasonably warm and humid
weather with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms today. A
cold front will drop into the the eastern Carolinas and stall
Monday and Tuesday, bringing an increase in showers and
thunderstorms. Drier air will spread over the region during the
middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Going forecast was in good shape. Latest update required no
adjustments at this time.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Latest sfc analysis shows a frontal boundary well off to the NW
with high pressure centered offshore. A more favorable
environment for shras/tstms today as mid-level energy increases
while mid levels moisten. Initial best rain chances will be near
the coast midday in association with the sea breeze, before
spreading further inland later in the day. Temps today quite
similar to yesterday...close to 90 most areas. The mid-level
support will allow for chance PoPs to continue through the
entire night tonight, with even higher rain chances (80%
areawide) for Mon as deep-layer moisture further increases. WPC
continues to highlight the local area in a Marginal Risk for
excessive rainfall Mon, and have maintained moderate rain
wording in the forecast. Not expecting severe wx but some
heavier shras could lead to ponding on roadways or low-lying
areas. High temps mainly in the mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper-trough will become cutoff and meander over the
southeastern US on Monday night. The southerly flow over our
area will continue to generate a plume of Gulf moisture and
elevated rain chances. Rain chances will continue Monday night
and increase on Tuesday as the afternoon instability adds to the
thunderstorm potential. Highs should be somewhat muted due to
the widespread thunderstorm activity; highs in the mid 80s. The
surface frontal feature will begin to dissipate on Tuesday night
and rain chances should decrease accordingly. Overnight lows in
the low to mid-70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The unsettled pattern begins to diminish on Wednesday as the
stationary front begins to dissipate and the upper-level low
weakens in unison. Expect slightly more than typical storm
coverage on Wednesday as lingering moisture should help the
afternoon instability. Upper trough affecting the region will
also begin to flatten over the northeastern US. With the
breakdown of the disturbance, upper-flow will become westerly or
NW with the tap of Gulf moisture being cut. PW decreases
Thursday and Friday with a return to typical summertime storm
coverage during the afternoon. Another trough will dig southward
next weekend and could bring another round of unsettled
weather. Uncertainty remains high at this time, therefore have
maintained a chance of PoPs despite a slight increase by long-
range models.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
It is a good bet we will see scattered convection this
afternoon. Not sure about the timing, best guess 19-23Z.
Convective debris overnight. Could see a stray shower overnight
as well with moisture through much of the column.

Extended Outlook...Higher chances of MVFR/IFR ceilings and
visibility in thunderstorms will develop Monday and Tuesday as a
front stalls in the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday... Sub-SCA conditions continue into early this
week with sfc high pressure offshore and a thermal trough
inland, before a cold front approaches from the N on Mon, but no
cold fropa expected by that point. Expect mainly 10-15 kt S/SW
wind, up to ~20 kt during the aftn/evening. Seas will be steady
at 2-3 ft, consisting of a 4 sec SSW wind wave and a 8-9 sec ESE
swell around the Bermuda High.

Monday Night into Thursday... Surface high pressure over the
Atlantic will maintain southerly flow across the area through
Thursday. Winds will maintain 10-15 knots and Bermuda swell will
generate a quiet 2-3 foot seas. Main problem for mariners this
week will be the scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms generating locally higher seas and strong winds.
These storms are due to a nearby stationary front which should
remain inland throughout much of the period. Best chance of
showers and storms will be Monday night into early Wednesday.
Thereafter, expect near typical storm coverage each evening.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...31
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MAS/21

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
302 AM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021

AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ087-096-099-105>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-
054>056-058-059-190715-
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Coastal Pender-
Inland New Hanover-Coastal New Hanover-Inland Brunswick-
Coastal Brunswick-Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-
Williamsburg-Coastal Horry-Inland Georgetown-Coastal Georgetown-
Central Horry-Northern Horry-
302 AM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters,
southeast North Carolina and northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
220 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021

NCZ109-181845-
Inland Brunswick NC-
220 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL BRUNSWICK COUNTY UNTIL
245 PM EDT...

At 219 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Honey Island, or 13 miles northeast of Shallotte, moving northeast at
15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Brunswick
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Thunderstorms can pose a variety of threats including gusty winds,
small hail, cloud to ground lightning, and localized flooding. It is
recommended that you remain indoors until the storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 3410 7828 3416 7833 3422 7826 3422 7825
      3423 7825 3426 7821 3414 7811
TIME...MOT...LOC 1819Z 245DEG 11KT 3415 7827

TRA