Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
332 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
There will be off and on chances for showers and thunderstorms
through Wednesday and again late Thursday with dry conditions
beyond this.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Some of the largest surface-based instability we've seen all year,
2000-3000 J/kg, has developed across coastal North and South
Carolina as dewpoints have surged to 70. The initial batch of single
and multicell thunderstorms associated with an upper level
disturbance is currently pushing north of Cape Fear into far eastern
NC, leaving relatively dry conditions in place across our area.

A second wave of thunderstorms developing now across north Georgia
and western South Carolina is expected to move east and toward us
this evening. While each model is different, a blended solution
highlighting the 16 & 17z HRRR and 12z HREF brings showers and
storms across the I-95 corridor by sunset, moving eastward toward
the coast mainly south of Cape Fear later in the evening. There is
some indication these storms could become organized into a bowing
line with strong wind gusts punching in from the west. Forecast Pops
are up to 60 percent this evening, highest across the southern
portion of the Pee Dee region and then east toward Myrtle Beach and
Georgetown. Given very dry conditions over the past 3 weeks, this is
certainly an area that would love to pick up rain.

We'll be in a lull between upper level disturbances much of Tuesday.
With sunshine and an initially capped airmass, our forecast is for
90 degree highs in Florence, Lumberton, and Wilmington -- possibly
the first 90s of the year. Only the strong seabreeze will keep
Myrtle Beach in the low-mid 80s on Tuesday. The cap may begin to
break during the afternoon and scattered showers and storms should
develop, lasting into the night as shortwave energy arrives from the
west.

Average dates of the first 90 degree high temp:
Wilmington May 16 Lumberton May 7 North Myrtle Beach June 3
Florence May 3

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front moving slowly across the area, associated with a
weakening mid level trough will be the focus for the mid week
period. Guidance has taken a decidedly drier shift with the
generated QPF most likely a result of the modest forcing. Pops
remain in the forecast Wednesday into the overnight hours mainly
off the coast but it seems possible Wednesday could be rain
free in most places. For Thursday weak high pressure will build
in before some moisture return late in the day. Highs Wednesday
in the middle 80s or so will drop back some ten degrees Thursday
with middle 70s. Overnight lows will follow a similar trend.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Seems like there will be one chance of rainfall during the
extended period and that isn't overly impressive. This chance
will occur overnight Thursday into early Friday as a decent
shortwave moves across in the northwest flow aloft. The feature
will tap a little Atlantic moisture but the quick movement and
lack of amplitude will limit the system. Beyond this its high
pressure under a westerly flow aloft. Perhaps enough moisture
recovery and height falls Monday to warrant slight chance pops
but it would appear to be the extent of it at this point.
Temperatures will be slightly cool initially warming to a few
degrees above climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
More of a typical summertime situation today, with decent
instability this afternoon, along with a short wave. Convection
is expected to increase in intensity, with thunder possible
into the evening hours. Visibilities could come down to a mile
in heavy rain and gusty winds. Improving conditions overnight,
with another round of convection possible at the end of the
forecast period.

Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR with periodic MVFR/IFR threat
from convection Mon Night through Wed. Best convective threat
will occur Wed ahead of a CFP. Possible MVFR conditions again
Thu into Fri due to a stalled front in the vicinity.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday Night...
Humid southerly winds continue to blow across the Carolinas,
funneled between high pressure out past Bermuda and a cold front
moving slowly eastward across Missouri and Oklahoma. Background
synoptic winds are 10-15 knots, but winds are expected to
occasionally increase to 15-20 knots due to afternoon seabreezes
today and Tuesday, and overnight low level jets.

Waves of showers and thunderstorms will also affect the area and
could bring locally stronger winds as well. One such cluster of
thunderstorms appears likely to reach the Grand Strand later this
evening, with additional showers and storms possible Tuesday night.
Seas currently 3 feet will build to 4 feet tonight into Tuesday.
Dominant wave periods near 5 seconds will be uncomfortably choppy
for small craft.

Wednesday through Saturday...
A strong southwest flow of 15-20 knots (probably on the higher
end of the range) will be in place Wednesday into the late
night. A cold front moves across slowly into Thursday with an
offshore flow developing. A brief return flow sets up Friday
before a surface trough moving across moves winds offshore
again. Overall wind speeds beyond Wednesday will be 10-15 knots.
Significant seas will be highest early with 2-4 and or 3-5 feet
possible Wednesday dropping back to a definite 2-4 feet
Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43
MARINE...TRA/SHK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
315 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-055-058-059-041100-
Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-
Inland Georgetown-Central Horry-Northern Horry-
315 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms could become severe this evening with damaging wind
gusts possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

SCZ054-056-041100-
Coastal Horry-Coastal Georgetown-
315 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement for Strong Longshore Current.

Thunderstorms could become severe this evening with damaging wind
gusts possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ087-096-099-105-107-109-041100-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Inland New Hanover-
Inland Brunswick-
315 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ110-041100-
Coastal Brunswick-
315 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Risk of Rip Currents.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ106-108-041100-
Coastal Pender-Coastal New Hanover-
315 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement for Strong Longshore Current.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

AMZ254-256-041100-
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-
315 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms could become strong to severe this evening with
wind gusts over 35 knots possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

AMZ250-252-041100-
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm-
315 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

9

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
704 PM EDT MON MAY 03 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 S AYNOR              33.86N  79.23W
05/03/2021                   HORRY              SC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREE DOWN IN ROADWAY

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM2100008

SHK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
706 PM EDT MON MAY 03 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 S AYNOR              33.86N  79.23W
05/03/2021                   HORRY              SC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SC HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTS TREE DOWN ON ROADWAY AT
            JORDANVILLE RD AND ANTIOCH RD WEST OF CONWAY

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER ILM2100008

OLIVA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
709 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

NCZ099-109-110-SCZ054-058-059-040000-
Inland Brunswick NC-Columbus NC-Coastal Brunswick NC-
Northern Horry SC-Coastal Horry SC-Central Horry SC-
709 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR BRUNSWICK...SOUTHEASTERN COLUMBUS
AND SOUTHEASTERN HORRY COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

At 709 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Old Dock to near Barefoot Landing Area Of North
Myrtle Beach. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Myrtle Beach, North Myrtle Beach, Oak Island, Shallotte, Sunset
Beach, Holden Beach, Ocean Isle Beach, Little River, Ocean Crest
Pier, North Myrtle Beach Airport, Cherry Grove Inlet, Iredell, St.
James, Carolina Shores, Calabash, Bethel, Makatoka, Exum, Longwood
and Seaside.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Thunderstorms can pose a variety of threats including gusty winds,
small hail, cloud to ground lightning, and localized flooding. It is
recommended that you remain indoors until the storms pass.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3391 7810 3391 7829 3388 7847 3380 7871
      3368 7889 3368 7891 3424 7871 3423 7806
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 265DEG 27KT 3417 7859 3374 7877

VAO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
719 PM EDT MON MAY 03 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             MYRTLE BEACH            33.70N  78.89W
05/03/2021  E1.00 INCH       HORRY              SC   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN MYRTLE BEACH
            - PELICANS BALLPARK, 48TH AVE, MYRTLEWOOD

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM2100009

OLIVA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
722 PM EDT MON MAY 03 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             RAINS                   34.10N  79.32W
05/03/2021  E1.25 INCH       MARION             SC   SOCIAL MEDIA

            PUBLIC REPORTED HAIL BIGGER THAN A QUARTER (AROUND
            1.25-1.5" BASED ON PIC) IN RAINS, SC

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM2100010

OLIVA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
728 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

SCZ054>056-058-040000-
Coastal Georgetown SC-Coastal Horry SC-Inland Georgetown SC-
Central Horry SC-
728 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHEASTERN GEORGETOWN AND
SOUTHERN HORRY COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

At 726 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm from
near Bucksport to Plantersville, moving east at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Surfside Beach, Garden City, Murrells Inlet, Socastee,
Plantersville, Burgess, Yauhannah, Bucksport and Waccamaw Community
Hospital.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Thunderstorms can pose a variety of threats including gusty winds,
small hail, cloud to ground lightning, and localized flooding. It is
recommended that you remain indoors until the storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 3352 7926 3367 7919 3368 7899 3368 7889
      3363 7894 3357 7901 3354 7902 3353 7904
      3352 7904 3350 7906
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 269DEG 39KT 3363 7912

SRP