Small Craft Advisory 54, NWS Wilmington, NC

422 
WHUS72 KILM 011020
MWWILM

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
620 AM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021

AMZ254-256-012000-
/O.CON.KILM.SC.Y.0054.210901T1200Z-210902T0700Z/
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-
620 AM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South to Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30
  kt and seas 4 to 7 ft expected.

* WHERE...Northeast South Carolina coastal waters.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

AMZ250-252-012000-
/O.CON.KILM.SC.Y.0054.210901T1200Z-210902T1000Z/
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out
20 nm-
620 AM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South to Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30
  kt and seas 4 to 7 ft expected.

* WHERE...Southeast North Carolina coastal waters.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
dch

562 
WHUS72 KILM 011910
MWWILM

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
310 PM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021

AMZ254-256-020500-
/O.CON.KILM.SC.Y.0054.000000T0000Z-210902T0700Z/
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-
310 PM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South to Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 
  30 kt and seas 4 to 7 ft expected.

* WHERE...Northeast South Carolina coastal waters.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

AMZ250-252-020500-
/O.CON.KILM.SC.Y.0054.000000T0000Z-210902T1000Z/
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out
20 nm-
310 PM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South to Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 
  30 kt and seas 4 to 7 ft expected.

* WHERE...Southeast North Carolina coastal waters.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

914 
WHUS72 KILM 020217
MWWILM

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1017 PM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021

AMZ254-256-020330-
/O.CAN.KILM.SC.Y.0054.000000T0000Z-210902T0700Z/
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-
1017 PM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

AMZ250-252-021000-
/O.CON.KILM.SC.Y.0054.000000T0000Z-210902T1000Z/
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out
20 nm-
1017 PM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and 
  seas 4 to 6 ft.

* WHERE...Southeast North Carolina coastal waters.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

9

418 
WHUS72 KILM 020703
MWWILM

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
303 AM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021

AMZ250-252-020815-
/O.CAN.KILM.SC.Y.0054.000000T0000Z-210902T1000Z/
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out
20 nm-
303 AM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Conditions have fallen below Small Craft Advisory thresholds.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1231 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid weather will continue through Wednesday. Showers
and storms on Wednesday will be associated with a cold front
that will bring much less humidity as well as cooler days and
even cooler nights late week. The weekend will turn more
seasonable and remain rain-free.

&&

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Look for a breakdown of ridging sfc and aloft today and
especially tonight thru Wed. This exasperated by the approach of
troffing aloft from the NW that eventually picks up Ida's
remains and shuffles her off to the NE today thru tonight, then
ENE during Wed. This trajectory will keep Ida NW thru N of the
ILM CWA. The upper trof axis will remain positively oriented as
it approaches Wed. Moisture will get drawn up from the Gulf of
Mexico and Atlantic, similar to banding features come Wed
morning toward daybreak. Therefore, looking at POPs for the 1st
time in awhile, starting late in the pre-dawn Wed hrs. Models
indicate pcpn to overspread the FA during Wed, with POPs
increasing to high chance and/or likely. SVR chances Wed aftn
and beyond are borderline, but enough to mention in the HWO per
latest SPC guidance.

With enough subsidence and dry air aloft keeping pcpn at bay
through this evening, and mainly just cirrus aloft with
diurnally driven limited vertical development Cu today, max
temps should be just shy of a degree or 2 of Mon
highs...dependent on the opaqueness of the cirrus. Have upped
tonights lows by a degree or 3...and stayed close to a model MOS
consensus for Wed highs (widespread 80s).

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front moves through Wednesday night, and the tricky part
here is determining how long the moisture sticks around. GFS
and NAM-12 keep the moisture around through the night, while
ECMWF dries the forecast out quicker. Wondering if forecast
guidance is holding onto the moisture a bit too long, although
there doesn't appear to be enough forcing aloft to push the
front through as fast as the ECMWF has it. At any rate, rain
chances taper off throughout the night, with low temperatures
near 70. Some wrap-around moisture may try to produce a couple
showers near Cape Fear by Thursday morning before drying out for
good. Expecting high temperatures in the mid 80s Thursday.
Skies gradually start to clear out Thursday and Thursday night.

Welcome fall! Precipitable water values generally drop to
0.50-0.75", which is about a third to a half of what's
typically expected for this time of year. Dry air will cool off
nicely Thursday, with lows in the low-to-mid 60s. Some cold
spots could even see the upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Clear skies throughout the weekend. Temperatures gradually
warm over the weekend, with highs in the mid 80s Friday to near
90 on Sunday. Friday night is setting up to be the coolest
night (in the lower 60s), gradually warming up over the weekend.
Give the AC a break, open up the windows, and enjoy this one.

By the beginning of next week, another cold front appears to be on
the way. This feature, in addition to a Piedmont trough, introduce
some slight rain chances back into the forecast. The airmass will
continue to modify back towards late summer thresholds. Please hold
onto fall while you can!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
One more day of hot dry weather. Subsidence aloft will continue
to keep CU from moderating. Southwest winds, a bit stronger
today, will drive temps back into the 90s this afternoon.
Increasing high clouds tonight. Wednesday, airmass change with
the remnants of IDA. Strong convection is possible after 18Z

Extended Outlook...Look for an increase in pcpn coverage and
flight restrictions Wed into Thu ahead of a cold front that will
sweep across the Eastern Carolinas early Thu. High pressure
will follow late Thu thru Sat with VFR prevailing.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday:
With the sfc high breaking down today thru tonight...look for a
tightening of the sfc pg as the circulation around the remnants
of Ida expands across the area waters. Winds generally become SW
and increase to 10-15 kt today thru tonight. The sfc pg further
tightens Wed resulting in SW winds increasing to 15-20 kt with
gusts to 25+ kt Wed aftn. Docile seas today in the 2 to 3 foot
range will begin to increase late tonight and further increase
Wed to SCA thresholds of 6 ft during the aftn. Have held off
raising a SCA to allow the dayshift to further refine this SCA
which will likely continue thru Wed night (Short Term) prior to
the slow approaching cold front. Seas will be dominated
initially by the 7 to 9 second period small ESE swell today.
This swell will be re-enforced by an E swell per latest Global
Wave Model runs tonight and Wed. However, at the same time, look
for an increase in the short period wind driven waves produced
by the SW winds, that will actually dominate the seas spectrum
come later tonight thru Wed. Isolated convection late tonight
across the area waters will increase in coverage during Wed with
the threat for SMWs during Wed.

Wednesday Night through Saturday:
Small Craft Advisory conditions look more likely to hold
through Thursday morning. After cold frontal passage Thursday
morning, winds veer northerly at 10-15kts, becoming more
northeasterly by Friday, and more easterly at 10kts by Saturday.
Seas drop to 2-4ft by Thursday afternoon, becoming more like
1-3ft by Friday afternoon.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MJC
NEAR TERM...DCH/MCW
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...43
MARINE...DCH/IGB/MCW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
400 AM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

AMZ250-252-254-256-010800-
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-
400 AM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

For Wednesday and Wednesday Night...
Small Craft Advisory conditions possible.
Threat for strong to severe thunderstorms producing 35+ kt wind
gusts and isolated waterspouts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ106-108-110-SCZ054-056-010800-
Coastal Pender-Coastal New Hanover-Coastal Brunswick-Coastal Horry-
Coastal Georgetown-
400 AM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

For Wednesday and Wednesday Night...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with damaging wind gusts
and isolated tornadoes the primary concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ087-096-099-105-107-109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-055-058-059-
010800-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Inland New Hanover-
Inland Brunswick-Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-
Williamsburg-Inland Georgetown-Central Horry-Northern Horry-
400 AM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

For Wednesday and Wednesday Night...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with damaging wind gusts
and isolated tornadoes the primary concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

dch