Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
335 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 328 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

Bottom line up front: Historic extreme wind event and extreme to
possibly catastrophic fire danger event under way across the area
this afternoon.

Low level moisture is once again stubborn to erode for areas across
southeast KS, but think this trend will continue to scour out from
west to the east for the late afternoon.

Dryline and associated very strong winds continues to move east-
northeast, currently located along a line from KSLN to Kingman. Some
of the strongest winds of the day and widespread blowing dust with
reduced visibilities to around 1/2 mile in the thickest dust. We
have a blowing dust advisory out for the dust.  Relative humidity
levels are dropping behind the dryline as well, which will further
exasperate the extreme grassland fire danger.

Current headlines look right on track with the high wind warning
going for most locations seeing "slam dunk" high wind criteria.
Could potentially make some tweaks the headlines on the southern
edge, as the strongest ball of wind moves to the east northeast, but
at this time do not anticipate any changes. Also currently fire
weather headlines look fine as well, see the fire weather section
for further details.

For late this afternoon, the dryline will sweep east into areas east
of I-135, with the strong gusty winds shifting to the east-
northeast, with the strongest core of winds shifting to the NE as
well into northeast KS. Still think areas west of the KS Turnpike
will see the strongest winds, but think areas even as far south as
the KS/OK border will see blowing dust and wind gusts of 45 and
potentially as high as 60 mph.

As the dryline surges east, moisture quality is a little bit better,
as convergence increases along the dryline. think the better chance
for showers and thunderstorms to develop along the boundary will be
just to the northeast of the area, across northeast KS, where
inhibition is less. A warm elevated mixed layer (EML) will probably
keep most of the convection from developing across SE KS as the
convergence increases along the dryline, but could still see a
chance of either a very thin line of convection along the boundary
or an isolated storm or two.  So will keep some slight pops in SE KS
for this chance. Will keep the chance pops going for extreme SE KS
as cap weakens and the boundary pivots over this area. Impressive
Bulk shear given the current wind conditions, with potentially 500-
1000 j/KG of SBCAPE, so if a storm can develop, a strong or isolated
severe storm cannot by ruled out, as it would not take much to
translate the strong winds to the ground.

Will linger the showers and isolated thunder chances into early
evening hours for SE KS, as the dryline lingers across this area
until around midnight. Moisture south of the boundary could push
over the boundary to produce a few scattered showers.

Expecting winds to slacken during the late evening hours, with
cooler air moving into the area behind the dryline/cold front.
Expect cold advection and falling temperatures this evening and
tonight. Will have to keep an eye on temps late this evening, as
some areas may not fall quick enough, leading to some "warm" low
temperature records possibly falling in KCNU and KICT.

Expect a dry and seasonal day on Thu. But by late Thu night into
early on Fri, warm advection and moisture transport may increase
enough over ern OK into SE KS for a light rain chance for early on
Fri.

Zonal flow will lead to seasonal temperatures remaining around going
into the weekend, with a reinforcing, but dry, cold front expected
to move across the area either later Fri night or Sat.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

Lots of model differences on how the beginning of next week will
play out, as zonal continues for much of the area. the big
differences in the medium range ECMWF and GFS is how they want to
the handle a southern stream shortwave expected to trek east
across TX into the gulf Coast states. the GFS brings this system a
little further north, which potentially pulls enough moisture
north for a rain chance for eastern KS on either Mon night or
early on Tue. ECMWF keeps this system to our south. Current NBM
and consensus keeps things dry, so will follow this for now.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

Very high winds and blowing dust will cause problems across the
region today. KRSL, KGBD and KSLN are the most likely to have
significant issues with the dust with visibilities likely to drop
below 1 mile at times this afternoon. Winds will also be an issue
with KCNU is the most likely terminal to avoid this higher winds.
KICT, KHUT are likely to see gusts approach 55kts while KSLN, KRSL
and KGBD likely to see gusts up to 60-65kts this afternoon. After
00Z, the winds will die off with the gusty winds ending after 06Z
tonight.

Metzger

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 328 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

An extreme to potentially catastrophic grassland fire
weather day is ongoing central and south central Kansas this
afternoon. Very strong gusty winds, possibly as high as 50 to 70
mph, associated with a storm system will accompany dry air and very
warm temperatures. Relative humidity values will fall into the 15 to
20 percent range after a dry line pushes rapidly east across the
area. The greatest area of concern will be for areas west of the
Kansas Turnpike, where a Red Flag warning has been issued.

For southeast Kansas, a very high danger exists through the
afternoon into the evening hours, as surface winds and dry
conditions continue until late this evening.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    34  53  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      31  51  28  52 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          33  51  31  53 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        35  52  33  56 /  10   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   36  55  34  58 /  10   0  10  10
Russell         27  50  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      27  50  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          30  51  26  51 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       31  50  27  51 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     41  55  39  61 /  50   0  20  30
Chanute         39  54  37  58 /  50   0  10  20
Iola            38  53  36  58 /  50   0  10  20
Parsons-KPPF    40  55  38  60 /  50   0  20  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for KSZ071-072-095-096-
099-100.

Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091>093.

High Wind Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...Metzger
FIRE WEATHER...Ketcham

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
351 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-162200-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
351 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A high wind warning has been issued for much of central and south
central Kansas today. Damaging winds with gusts to around 70 mph
will be possible, with the strongest winds across portions of
central Kansas. See the latest high wind warning for additional
details.

The strong winds late this afternoon will lead to an extreme to
potentially catastrophic grassland fire day. A red flag warning has
been issued for most areas except far southeast Kansas. See the
latest fire weather product for additional details.

A wind advisory has been issued for far southeast Kansas. Winds of
35 mph with gusts close to 50 mph are possible.

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms this evening across
southeast Kansas. Any storm that forms will have the potential to
be strong or severe. Damaging winds would be the primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

Ketcham

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