Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1150 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...Updated for the 00Z Aviation Forecast...

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS:

* Conditional isolated strong/severe storm threat this evening
  across portions of central and south-central Kansas.

* Strong/severe storm threat far eastern Kansas Sunday afternoon.

* Potential for widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms Tuesday
  night through Wednesday night.

THIS EVENING-TONIGHT...Cannot rule out a stray thunderstorm this
evening, generally along/west of the Flint Hills and south of I-70,
in vicinity of a dryline/warm front triple point, and also near a
remnant outflow boundary from convection early this morning. Latest
RAP, NAM, and HRRR suggest boundary layer heating/moistening may be
just enough to weaken the cap sufficiently for a rogue storm or two
to form. However, there are some negatives, namely lack of large
scale mid/upper forcing, along with mid-level temperatures warming
with time this evening. If deep moist convection can indeed breach
the cap, sufficient combination of instability/shear would support
an isolated large hail/damaging wind threat. Will continue to
monitor observational trends.

Otherwise, thinking brunt of widespread showers/thunderstorms
overnight will be well northeast of the forecast area, within a zone
of strong/deep warm advection and moisture transport north of the
warm front. However, thinking a smattering of isolated to widely
scattered showers/storms could increase for locations generally
along/east of I-135 after midnight, within a zone of rich mid-level
moisture amidst increasing large scale ascent ahead of the
approaching shortwave. This activity will likely remain below strong
or severe levels.

SUNDAY...Still thinking the greatest severe threat Sunday afternoon-
evening will be just east of the forecast area across far eastern
Kansas and Missouri, as a powerful shortwave and associated stout
mid/upper speed max overspreads a moist/unstable warm sector. The
cold front reaches the Flint Hills by about lunchtime, with storms
possibly initiating as early as 2-3pm. Consequently, will hold onto
a conditional severe threat as far west as Yates Center-Fredonia-
Independence. Strong/deep wind fields in concert with moderate to
strong instability will be supportive of severe weather. Long
clockwise-turning hodographs and lower LCLs may also support a
tornado threat, even if storms tend to go more mixed mode and/or
linear with time. But once again, the greatest threat will be
probably be just east of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...Attention then turns to the mid-week period, as
model consensus progresses another deep/potent upper trough east
across Mid-America. Timing and amplitude of this next system is
still in question, with run-to-run and model-to-model consistency
issues abounding. The GFS remains the faster solution, supporting
lower rainfall totals, and rain chances only Tuesday night through
Wednesday morning. In contrast, the ECMWF and to some extent the
Canadian model remains slower and deeper, supporting a more
prolonged rain event Tuesday night through Thursday, with much
greater rainfall totals. Furthermore, while the overall synoptic
pattern favors at least a mention of strong to severe storms,
suspect the big limiting factor will be limited moisture return
and associated instability. Stay tuned for later forecasts.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...Building upper ridging and associated large scale
subsidence should support mostly quiet weather Friday through next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Reduced flight categories will develop and expand in coveage tonight
along the I-70 corridor where IFR/LIFR are anticipated with some
drizzle and fog developing in a moist upslope regime. As the
front moves eastward during the morning hours on Sunday, flight
categories will improve from west to east as drier and more
subsident air overspread the region. We could see some transient
showers or perhaps an isolated storm impact south central and
southeast KS tonight as we remain within the warm sector with some
increasing large-scale forcing for ascent as the shortwave trough
approaches but the bigger concern will be widespread LLWS
impacting all of south central and southeast KS through the
overnight and early morning hours. VFR will return from west to
east during the morning hours on Sun.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    66  73  43  65 /  30  10   0   0
Hutchinson      64  69  40  64 /  20  10   0   0
Newton          65  71  42  63 /  30  10   0   0
ElDorado        66  73  43  63 /  30  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   68  77  45  67 /  30  10   0   0
Russell         52  64  37  62 /  20  20   0   0
Great Bend      53  66  38  63 /  20  10   0   0
Salina          58  66  39  63 /  30  20   0   0
McPherson       64  68  40  62 /  20  10   0   0
Coffeyville     67  79  46  66 /  30  30  10   0
Chanute         65  77  45  63 /  30  30   0   0
Iola            63  76  45  62 /  30  30   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    67  78  45  65 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...MWM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
128 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-250630-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
128 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Widely scattered thunderstorms will move across south central and
southeast Kansas. A couple storms could produce small hail and brief
heavy downpours.

Areas of fog and drizzle are possible toward dawn, generally along
and north of a line from Great Bend to Salina. Some dense fog is
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

A more robust round of severe storms will be possible across far
eastern Kansas Sunday afternoon and early evening, mainly east of
Yates Center to Fredonia to Independence. Large hail, damaging
winds, and a tornado or two are possible. Please stay tuned for
updates.

Showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast for Tuesday
night through Wednesday night or Thursday. There could be a strong
to severe storm threat Tuesday evening and night, although there
remains some uncertainty. Stay tuned for updates on timing and
possible hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
231 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

KSZ052-068-069-083-240800-
Butler KS-Harvey KS-Marion KS-Sedgwick KS-
231 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of eastern Sedgwick,
Harvey, western Butler and southwestern Marion Counties through 300
AM CDT...

At 230 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
scattered along a line extending from 5 miles north of Halstead to 6
miles southwest of Whitewater to Mcconnell Air Force Base. Movement
was east-northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wichita, Derby, Newton, El Dorado, Andover, Augusta, Park City,
Valley Center, Bel Aire, Rose Hill, Hesston, Halstead, North Newton,
Sedgwick, Towanda, Peabody, Benton, Whitewater, Kechi and
Eastborough.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 135 between Mile Markers 3 and 42.
 Interstate 35 between Mile Markers 43 and 72.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3753 9730 3781 9736 3811 9764 3817 9747
      3817 9737 3821 9737 3828 9720 3804 9683
      3760 9694
TIME...MOT...LOC 0730Z 247DEG 45KT 3808 9753 3791 9725 3761 9726

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

DARMOFAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
233 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0229 AM     HAIL             EAST WICHITA            37.68N 97.26W
10/24/2021  E0.75 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   PUBLIC

            PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL.

&&

KEVIN.DARMOFAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
300 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

KSZ052-053-069-240830-
Butler KS-Marion KS-Chase KS-
300 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Chase,
northern Butler and southern Marion Counties through 330 AM CDT...

At 300 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles south of Hillsboro to 6 miles northeast
of Potwin to near Towanda. Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
El Dorado, Andover, Marion, Towanda, Peabody, Benton, Florence,
Potwin, Elbing, Burns, Cassoday, Bazaar, Elmdale, Matfield Green,
Cedar Point, Santa Fe Lake, El Dorado State Park, Wonsevu, El Dorado
Lake and Marion Lake.

This includes Interstate 35 between Mile Markers 56 and 106.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3766 9715 3790 9709 3817 9715 3817 9719
      3826 9732 3852 9677 3843 9663 3829 9650
      3814 9644 3809 9647 3808 9652 3795 9653
TIME...MOT...LOC 0800Z 237DEG 41KT 3826 9717 3799 9693 3778 9697

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

DARMOFAL