Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
359 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Expect elevated showers and storms from the overnight hours to
continue to shift over to southeast KS and linger into mid morning
as abundant warm moist advection continues across southern KS.

Today a sfc low will be developing as it slides west into the
central/south central KS vicinity. As the previous forecaster
alluded too, there is a conditional chance of an isolated severe
storm or two potentially develop along a pseudo-dryline feature
stemming from the sfc low this afternoon. However, most models do
keep the area capped and with sfc convergence looking rather
bleak, thinking it will be hard to find a good focus for any sfc
convection. Will keep pops silent for afternoon. However, if we
are able to squeak out an updraft, there would then be ample
CAPE/Shear to support a severe thunderstorm. This will be
something the day shift will need to keep a close eye on.

Attention then turns toward this evening and tonight when elevated
showers and storms will again return. The bulk of the activity
tonight looks to remain along and north of the northeast fringe to
start the night. As the anomalous jet veers, expect showers and
storm to fill in over the eastern half of the CWA. A few storms
may be strong to severe where the main threat will be nickel to
quarter sized hail from a combo of MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg and
25-35kts of effective shear.

Model consensus continues to come together for the potential of
significant severe weather tomorrow afternoon across southeast
Kansas. While much of the warm sector will be east of the area,
convergence along the cold front will likely set off a few storms as
it rolls through southeast KS mid to late afternoon. The front will
be near or east of a line from Greenwood to Chautauqua Counties
by 21Z (slowest case, NAM). Environmental parameters continue to
boast very favorable conditions including MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg
and effective bulk shear of 40+kts in combination with LCLs <
1000m and 0-1km SRH of 172 (ESRH of 159) with favorably curved
hodographs early. Storms that form along or ahead of this front
will be capable of all severe hazards including large, potentially
significant hail (SHIP >1), damaging winds, and tornadoes (STP
>1).

Given shear/front orientation expect early storms to be at least
semi- discrete before storms later grow upscale into a line.
Southeast KS may only be under the gun for 3-4 hours as the front
is progged to exit the CWA by 00Z, if not sooner.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

A deepening western trough is expected to track over the Rockies
and into the Plains mid week. The resulting lee troughing and sfc
low will really crank up the winds across the Plains through the
week. Models continue to diverge on the strength of the upper
system and where it will track. However, there is some general
agreement that there will be multiple chances to see showers and
storms Tuesday through Thursday across the region. Stay tuned as
the details in this period remain to be ironed out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021

Main aviation concern will remain late night and early morning
storms.

Storms have started to develop as 850-700 theta-e advection has
increased. This trend should continue through the next several
hours. Still looking like KICT and KCNU will be the two TAF sites
that will be affected, with storms not exiting KCNU until after
13z. The stronger storms will be capable of producing hail,
possibly up to the size of half dollars. By sunrise, we may also
see some MVFR ceilings moving into central KS, affecting mainly
KRSL-KGBD. Would also not be out of the question to see some IFR
cigs mixed-in with this.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    80  67  75  43 /  20  30  10   0
Hutchinson      78  63  72  41 /  10  20  10   0
Newton          76  64  73  42 /  20  30  20   0
ElDorado        76  65  75  43 /  30  30  20   0
Winfield-KWLD   82  68  78  44 /  30  30  20   0
Russell         71  54  67  37 /  10  20  20   0
Great Bend      74  55  69  38 /  10  20  10   0
Salina          73  59  70  39 /  10  40  20   0
McPherson       76  62  71  39 /  10  30  20   0
Coffeyville     79  68  81  46 /  50  20  50  10
Chanute         73  65  79  45 /  60  30  50  10
Iola            72  64  77  44 /  60  40  40  10
Parsons-KPPF    76  68  81  45 /  60  30  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KMB
LONG TERM...KMB
AVIATION...RBL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
134 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-240645-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
134 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Strong to marginally severe storms are possible across south central
and southeast Kansas. The main threat will be nickel to quarter size
hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There are multiple rounds of severe storms possible Saturday
through Sunday night, and another round possible Tuesday. Large
hail and damaging winds appear to be the most likely hazards at
this time. Stay tuned for updates on timing and possible hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
201 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0159 AM     HAIL             1 SW WINFIELD           37.26N 96.98W
10/23/2021  E0.75 INCH       COWLEY             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KEVIN.DARMOFAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
256 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

KSZ069-230830-
Butler KS-
256 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Butler
County through 330 AM CDT...

At 255 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Benton, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
El Dorado, Andover, Augusta, Towanda, Benton, Augusta Municipal
Airport, El Dorado Airport, Santa Fe Lake and El Dorado State Park.

This includes Interstate 35 between Mile Markers 57 and 77.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3761 9708 3782 9716 3783 9715 3790 9683
      3762 9681
TIME...MOT...LOC 0755Z 258DEG 23KT 3776 9704

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

DARMOFAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
406 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

KSZ095-099-230930-
Montgomery KS-Wilson KS-
406 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Wilson
and northeastern Montgomery Counties through 430 AM CDT...

At 405 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 5 miles west of Neodesha to near Liberty.
Movement was east-northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Independence, Neodesha, Cherryvale, Liberty, Sycamore, Coffeyville
Airport, Elk City State Park and Elk City Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3741 9588 3747 9553 3709 9552 3709 9570
TIME...MOT...LOC 0905Z 251DEG 27KT 3739 9578 3715 9568

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DARMOFAL