Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
315 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

Forecast highlights the next 7 days:

* Periodic thunderstorm chances through Saturday.

* Near normal temperatures the next several days, with a possible
  return to above normal temperatures by late weekend or early next
  week.

As seen via satellite and radar, an MCV continues to rotate south
across the area brining pulse thunderstorms to parts of south
central and southeast KS at this hour.  Satellite trends continue to
show an increasingly agitated Cu field, especially along and east of
the KS-turnpike. SPC mesoanalysis shows this area nearly uncapped
with 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Like yesterday, adequate shear appears to be
the biggest limiting factor for robust storms for most of the area
today. So thinking the main threat is dime to quarter sized hail
with wind gusts of 50-60mph as storms may not be able to support
themselves very long. However, our western and southern fringe
counties are progged to get in on around 20-30kts of effective wind
shear throughout the period so thinking storms here have the best
chance of persisting, with isolated quarter to half dollar size hail
possible. Additionally, slower storm motions and higher precipitable
waters will support pockets of intense rain rates.

As far as storm coverage, thinking by evening subsidence will start
to set in across central KS where as upper level wave moves past.
However, ahead of the upper wave and with added lift from the MCV,
expect more coverage over south central and southeast KS. Given
these trends, added pops to southeast KS through remainder of
afternoon and early evening and tapered down pops a shave across
central KS.

Will keep some slight chance PoPs for Tuesday-Tuesday evening,
mainly over southeast KS in vicinity of the departing upper wave and
associated cooler temperatures aloft. However, despite large scale
subsidence on the back side of the departing wave, cannot completely
rule out a stray storm further west across central KS amidst a
strongly unstable and weakly capped airmass. Combination of deep
layer shear and instability will favor a threat of strong to
marginally severe storms, along with pockets of intense rainfall
rates.

Storm chances should decrease even more for Wednesday, although
still cannot rule out a stray storm or two across southeast Kansas
in vicinity of weak upper forcing amidst a continued unstable and
weakly capped airmass.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

An unseasonably strong upper wave approaching from the west and an
associated cold front will be the focus for thunderstorm chances
Thursday late afternoon through Saturday night. Combination of
increasing flow aloft and deep forcing could support a slight uptick
in severe chances, especially Thursday evening through Friday
evening. Also, hefty precipitable waters could support locally very
heavy rainfall.

Deterministic and ensemble consensus supports the frontal zone
gradually washing out and retreating northward toward late weekend,
with rising heights/thickness in its wake. This should support a
good chance for temperatures climbing mostly above normal by late
weekend or early next week, with lower rain/storm chances through at
least Tuesday or next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

VFR conditions expected across most of central KS while diurnally
driven sct MVFR cigs will be possible across south central and
southeast KS. Current cumulus development has been between sct015
and sct025. Main change since previous forecast is to focus
afternoon convective coverage more so across south central and
southeast Kansas. An isolated storm may still be possible across
central KS early, but thinking the best chances are now across
southern KS.

Inserted VCTS this afternoon across southern KS sites for this
chance as a few storm attempts have already noted, as an MCV
rotates through the area ahead of the better lift arriving this
afternoon. Expect reduced flight categories should TSRA arrive.
Will amend for TSRA as needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    68  90  70  92 /  30  20  20  10
Hutchinson      67  90  69  92 /  20  20  20  10
Newton          67  89  69  90 /  30  20  20  10
ElDorado        68  88  69  90 /  30  20  20  10
Winfield-KWLD   68  90  70  92 /  30  20  20  20
Russell         67  92  69  93 /  10  10  10   0
Great Bend      66  90  68  89 /  10  10  10   0
Salina          68  91  70  92 /  20  10  10  10
McPherson       67  91  68  90 /  20  20  20  10
Coffeyville     69  88  70  90 /  30  20  20  20
Chanute         69  88  69  89 /  30  20  20  20
Iola            68  88  69  88 /  30  20  20  20
Parsons-KPPF    68  88  69  90 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...ADK/KMB
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...KMB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1242 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-171745-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
1242 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a chance for thunderstorms area wide this afternoon,
though coverage is expected to be greatest across portions of south
central and southeast Kansas. A few strong and severe storms can be
expected, capable of dime to half dollar size hail, strong wind
gusts of 50 to 65 mph and locally heavy rainfall which could result
in minor lowland flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Periodic chances for thunderstorms are in the forecast Tuesday
through the upcoming weekend. The best chances will be Thursday
afternoon through Friday night. While widespread severe weather is
unlikely, the greatest chance for strong to severe storms will be
late in the week. Locally heavy rainfall will also be a threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated this afternoon or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
340 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

KSZ083-162130-
Sedgwick KS-
340 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Sedgwick County
through 430 PM CDT...

At 339 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking multiple strong
thunderstorms across Sedgwick County, moving north at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wichita, Derby, Andover, Haysville, Park City, Valley Center, Bel
Aire, Mulvane, Goddard, Rose Hill, Maize, Clearwater, Cheney,
Sedgwick, Colwich, Garden Plain, Mount Hope, Downtown Wichita, Kechi
and Andale.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 135 between Mile Markers 0 and 22.
 Interstate 35 between Mile Markers 34 and 54.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3773 9781 3774 9770 3791 9770 3791 9715
      3748 9715 3748 9781
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 178DEG 5KT 3770 9740

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BUTLER