Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
256 AM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

A rather challenging forecast for the short term as far as
temperatures and convection.  Max temps for today will be highly
dependent on the amount of convective debris left behind from the
showers and thunderstorms last night.  The short range CAMS are
having a terrible time resolving the convection as they do not do
well with weak steering currents and high PW (1.5-2 inches) across
the region which is well above normal.  As such, temperatures could
vary a decent amount today across the CWA and will be highly
dependent cloud cover and where convective redevelopment occurs. The
NAM families are by far the most bullish on the convection this
afternoon.  The GFS/ECMWF are not as excited and keep the bulk of
the convection to the east of the CWA but do keep a decent chance in
the region. Considering these differences, think areas along and
east of I-135 will have the best chance for convective
redevelopment. The redevelopment is expected to be initiated by the
front which should come through the region during the afternoon and
into evening.  So could see temperatures a little cooler in the
eastern half of the CWA.

Saturday and Sunday, the front will start push off to the south and
some CAA in the low to mid levels will take over. Temperatures will
take a dip and are likely to be a little below normal for this time
of year.  Smoke from the wild fires along the west coast looks to
remain minimal through the short term.  As such, temps are likely to
reach their full potential through Sunday.  High pressure and some
weak subsidence should keep the precipitation chances down but can't
rule precipitation out completely. Saturday looks to have the better
chance for rain than Sunday as there looks to be some residual
forcing in the region to keep convection festering.  The GFS
ensemble families continue to keep some festering convection in the
central and western portions of the CWA while the NAM/Canadian/ECMWF
families clear the region out.  Leaned toward that solution this
time out as it makes more sense with the current pattern.

Metzger

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

The extended range looks to quiet down for the beginning of next
week with some scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.
Confidence in the extended range is rather low as the ensemble
families don't agree on solution.  Temperatures do look to remain a
little below normal for this time of year through the extended
range. The precipitation forecast for this period is very difficult.
The GFS ensemble families are in stark contrast to the ECMWF
families.  The GFS is slower with the next frontal system for the
end of the week while the ECMWF starting bring this activity in by
Wednesday.  Both solutions do point to a decent rain event but
confidence for this is very low due to the differences in the
ensemble families. Temperatures are likely to drop back below normal
though for the end of next week.

Metzger

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

Main concern thru 12Z will be showers and thunderstorms area wide.

Showers and thunderstorms are sliding southward along an outflow
boundary exiting central Kansas (KRSL, KSLN, KGBD) and into
south-central Kansas (KHUT, KICT). This is reflected in TAFs
through 12Z with either vcts or tempo tsra. A wind shift is
associated with the outflow boundary switching southerly winds to
north-north westerly. Meanwhile, for KCNU, a complex of storms is
slowly moving southwestward out of Missouri. While tempo tsra has
been left out for now, this will likely have to amended when
timing becomes more certain.

Amendments may be necessary for any TAF in this period given
erratic and uncertain storms motions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    88  69  87  66 /  30  40  50  20
Hutchinson      87  67  87  65 /  30  40  40  20
Newton          86  67  85  65 /  30  40  40  20
ElDorado        87  68  86  66 /  30  40  40  20
Winfield-KWLD   90  69  88  67 /  40  50  60  20
Russell         83  63  85  64 /  40  40  40  20
Great Bend      83  64  85  64 /  40  40  40  20
Salina          84  67  85  65 /  40  30  20  20
McPherson       85  66  84  64 /  40  40  30  20
Coffeyville     90  70  88  67 /  50  40  60  20
Chanute         86  70  86  67 /  50  30  30  20
Iola            85  69  85  66 /  50  30  20  20
Parsons-KPPF    89  70  87  67 /  50  30  50  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Metzger
LONG TERM...Metzger
AVIATION...JC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1146 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-140100-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
1146 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered storms will affect much of the area late tonight. The
strongest thunderstorms could produce nickel size hail, wind gusts
up to 55 mph, and locally heavy rainfall with some minor flooding
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A continued risk of scattered thunderstorms is possible for Friday
through the weekend. The strongest thunderstorms could produce dime
size hail and wind gusts up to 60 mph. Intense rainfall rates and
minor flooding may occur as well. More storms will be possible next
week across the region, please stay tuned for updates on where the
greatest risk area will be each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1048 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

KSZ052-130415-
Marion KS-
1048 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Marion
County through 1115 PM CDT...

At 1048 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Goessel, or 6 miles south of Hillsboro, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Peabody and Goessel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3836 9727 3827 9711 3818 9707 3815 9715
      3818 9716 3817 9730 3827 9737 3828 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0348Z 315DEG 7KT 3826 9725

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1118 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

KSZ048-130445-
Ellsworth KS-
1118 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Ellsworth County through 1145 PM CDT...

At 1117 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Kanopolis, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ellsworth, Kanopolis and Ellsworth Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3865 9833 3880 9835 3887 9795 3872 9795
TIME...MOT...LOC 0417Z 222DEG 17KT 3876 9814

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

LAWSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1119 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

KSZ051-052-130445-
McPherson KS-Marion KS-
1119 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
McPherson and southwestern Marion Counties through 1145 PM CDT...

At 1119 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Goessel, or 8 miles southwest of Hillsboro. This storm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hillsboro, Peabody, Canton, Goessel, Lehigh and Marion Lake.

This includes Interstate 135 between Mile Markers 43 and 47.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3841 9712 3817 9710 3817 9715 3818 9716
      3817 9750 3839 9752
TIME...MOT...LOC 0419Z 237DEG 3KT 3826 9731

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

LAWSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1150 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

KSZ051-052-068-130515-
McPherson KS-Harvey KS-Marion KS-
1150 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
McPherson, northeastern Harvey and southwestern Marion Counties
through 1215 AM CDT...

At 1150 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Goessel, or 8 miles northeast of Moundridge. This storm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hesston, Hillsboro, Moundridge, Peabody, Galva, Canton, Goessel,
Walton, Lehigh and Marion Lake.

This includes Interstate 135 between Mile Markers 38 and 55.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3844 9716 3813 9708 3810 9720 3813 9758
      3842 9761
TIME...MOT...LOC 0450Z 103DEG 2KT 3826 9737

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

LAWSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
222 AM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

KSZ070-130745-
Greenwood KS-
222 AM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Greenwood
County through 245 AM CDT...

At 220 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Emporia to just north of Eureka. Movement
was slowly east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail along with
         torrential rainfall rates.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Eureka, Madison, Hamilton, Virgil, Eureka City Lake, Thrall and
Eureka Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3780 9596 3779 9643 3809 9639 3809 9636
      3817 9636 3817 9596
TIME...MOT...LOC 0720Z 268DEG 7KT 3837 9624 3781 9635

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DARMOFAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
316 AM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

KSZ070-130845-
Greenwood KS-
316 AM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Greenwood County
through 345 AM CDT...

At 316 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Madison to 7 miles south of Eureka.
Movement was southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Eureka, Madison, Hamilton, Climax, Virgil, Eureka City Lake, Fall
River Lake, Thrall, Eureka Airport, Fall River State Park and Cross
Timbers State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3767 9641 3809 9640 3809 9636 3817 9636
      3817 9596 3762 9596
TIME...MOT...LOC 0816Z 319DEG 12KT 3810 9620 3772 9631

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DARMOFAL