Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
243 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

Storms have already developed over northeast and western Kansas
along the surface frontal boundary. Additional storms are expected
to develop this afternoon and tonight(mainly over central Kansas).
Wind shear is rather weak today however good instability combined
with inverted-V vertical thermal profile supports mainly damaging
wind potential with high DCAPE. There is some hail potential
especially if a storm can limit mergering with other storms. If the
storm coverage increases a modest cold pool would develop causing
storms to spread southward tonight. Storm redevelopment areas for
Friday/Saturday will be predicated on convective evolution each
day and resultant effects for surface boundary placement. Heading
into Saturday the effective boundary could move further south
into Oklahoma, thus limiting storm chances further north.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

GFS/ECMWF models show a upper level wave dropping southeast across
the region for Monday/Tuesday with a decent precipitation signal.
Daytime highs look to be little bit cooler than normal this period.
Meanwhile models show a more pronounced upper trough moving eastward
from the Rockies across the northern plains for Wednesday into
Thursday. If this signal is maintained it would push a cold front
southward into Kansas which could bring more storm chances to the
area for middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

VFR conditions are expected for most of the area over the next 24
hrs. However, should sites experience -TSRA, then expect brief
reductions to flight categories. A weak boundary continues to lay
across northern Kansas at this hour and storms have developed near
and along this boundary across portions of northeast KS. Expect
storms to develop first near this boundary/I-70 corridor as soon
as early afternoon. Storms will be scattered to start but may grow
more upscale by this evening and overnight. There continues to be
a least a couple hiRes models that push the complex of storms
into southern Kansas overnight, but confidence was not high enough
yet to introduce VCTS at KICT or KCNU.

The boundary is expected to linger across the area through
tomorrow. Models continue to have a hard time on expected wind
direction/location of the weak frontal zone, would expect at least
some adjustments to wind direction with the next issuance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  90  68  87 /  40  30  40  50
Hutchinson      69  88  66  87 /  40  30  40  40
Newton          70  88  66  85 /  40  30  40  40
ElDorado        71  89  68  86 /  40  30  40  40
Winfield-KWLD   72  92  68  88 /  30  40  40  50
Russell         67  86  65  86 /  60  30  40  40
Great Bend      67  86  65  83 /  50  30  40  40
Salina          69  86  66  85 /  60  30  40  30
McPherson       68  87  65  84 /  50  30  40  40
Coffeyville     73  92  70  88 /  30  40  40  40
Chanute         73  89  70  86 /  50  40  40  30
Iola            72  89  69  85 /  50  40  30  30
Parsons-KPPF    73  91  69  87 /  40  40  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ070>072-094>096-
098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...KMB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
449 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-132200-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
449 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Heat indices of 102 to 107 degrees are likely across southeast
Kansas and parts of central and south central Kansas through the
early evening hours. Please see the latest Heat Advisory for
additional details.

Scattered thunderstorms will affect mainly central Kansas into the
early evening hours. This activity will spread slowly southward
tonight. The strongest thunderstorms could produce quarter size
hail, wind gusts up to 65 mph, and locally heavy rainfall with some
minor flooding possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A continued risk of scattered thunderstorms is possible for Friday through
the weekend. The strongest thunderstorms could produce dime size
hail and wind gusts up to 60 mph. Intense rainfall rates and minor
flooding may occur as well. More storms will be possible next week
across the region, please stay tuned for updates on where the
greatest risk area will be each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
555 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0541 PM     TSTM WND GST     15 WNW LINCOLN          39.13N 98.41W
08/12/2021  E65 MPH          LINCOLN            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

ROBB.LAWSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
604 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     TSTM WND GST     LUCAS                   39.06N 98.54W
08/12/2021  E70 MPH          RUSSELL            KS   PUBLIC

            REPORT CAME IN VIA FACEBOOK.

&&

ROBB.LAWSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
614 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W SYLVAN GROVE        39.01N 98.47W
08/12/2021                   LINCOLN            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER POLE REORTED DOWN.

&&

ROBB.LAWSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
640 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

KSZ048-050-051-130015-
Ellsworth KS-Rice KS-McPherson KS-
640 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
McPherson, northeastern Rice and southeastern Ellsworth Counties
through 715 PM CDT...

At 639 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Marquette, or 16 miles southeast of Kanopolis, moving
east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marquette and Kanopolis Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3861 9793 3861 9784 3849 9777 3841 9809
      3857 9814 3863 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 250DEG 15KT 3852 9798

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH