Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
116 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

Radar imagery shows anti-cyclonic spin of MCV development over
southwest Kansas from overnight convection. This feature looks to
migrate slowly eastward early this morning across southern Kansas.
Rich precipitable water axis ahead of this MCV combined with
relatively cooler mid-level temperatures will yield a moist un-
capped and unstable airmass. Which would be easily agitated from
the MCV to allow scattered showers/storms to freely develop over
southern Kansas for this morning into the afternoon hours. Wind
shear is weak therefore main hazards would be gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall.

Heat and humidity will increase for Tuesday and more so on Wednesday
over central and southern Kansas, with afternoon heat indices likely
topping 100 degrees for all areas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

Models show upper level ridge center dominating over the region for
Thursday and Friday with dry weather and hotter than normal
temperatures for Kansas. In addition, afternoon heat indices look to
remain in the dangerous category this period.

Heading into Saturday models show a more pronounced upper trough
diving southeast across the Great Lakes region, which will push a
frontal boundary southward from Nebraska into Kansas. Very hot
temperatures will prevail for locations along and south of the
frontal boundary on Saturday. Meanwhile, models show chances of
showers/storms developing along the frontal boundary Saturday
afternoon. If timing by the long range models is maintained cooler
drier air looks to overspread the region for Sunday behind the
frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

Some MVFR conditions are expected throughout the period as ceilings
between 1,000-3,000 feet are possible.

There's a chance for showers and storms  across the southern
portions of the CWA this afternoon and evening. We mentioned thunder
in for Wichita and Hutchinson through 23z this evening. Additionally,
we added thunder to Salina as well due to a growing cumulus field
and some low level confluence. Conditions should clear overnight
where a few clouds may remain over the western half of the CWA
through the night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    92  72  95  74 /  30  10  10   0
Hutchinson      92  71  96  73 /  30  10  10   0
Newton          91  71  95  73 /  30  10  10   0
ElDorado        91  72  93  74 /  30  10  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   90  73  94  74 /  30  20  10   0
Russell         91  70  98  73 /  20  10   0   0
Great Bend      90  70  98  71 /  20  10   0   0
Salina          91  71  97  74 /  20  10  10   0
McPherson       92  70  96  72 /  20  10  10   0
Coffeyville     93  73  93  74 /  30  20  10   0
Chanute         92  73  93  74 /  20  10  10   0
Iola            91  73  93  74 /  20  10  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    93  73  93  74 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...CRW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
406 AM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-270915-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
406 AM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms today, mainly across southern Kansas will
be capable of producing outflow winds around 40 mph, and locally
heavy rainfall which could cause minor flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Heat indices above 100 degrees are possible for Tuesday afternoon
across the area. However, the more intense heat is expected to
return on Wednesday and continue through Friday, when heat indices
each afternoon will range from 102 to 107 degrees.

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms on Saturday. If storms
develop, they will have the potential for gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
315 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

KSZ092-093-262115-
Cowley KS-Sumner KS-
315 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Western Cowley County in south central Kansas...
  Sumner County in south central Kansas...

* Until 415 PM CDT.

* At 312 PM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was
  tracking small clusters of strong thunderstorms with locally heavy
  rainfall across Sumner County and western Cowley County.

These storms will produce localized very heavy rainfall rates and
wind gusts up to 45 mph.

* Locations impacted include...
  Arkansas City, Winfield, Wellington, Belle Plaine, Caldwell,
  Oxford, Udall, Argonia, South Haven, Geuda Springs, Rock, Mayfield,
  Milan, Hunnewell, Perth, Winfield City Lake, Riverdale, Strother
  Field Airport and Wellington Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may produce ponding of water on roadways. Listen for
later statements or possible flood warnings...should the risk for
minor low-land flooding become more imminent.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9777 3734 9780 3746 9689 3700 9681
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 216DEG 8KT 3715 9764

CARUSO