Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
717 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

Scattered showers and storms quickly redeveloped toward the
noon hour within a moist and weakly capped pbl. We're even seeing
more isolated or widely scattered activity in the post-frontal
airmass early this afternoon as we remain weakly capped with some
lingering post-frontal low level moisture.

Tonight-Sunday...showers and storms are expected to be most numerous
across southeast KS again tonight as we remain within the entrance
region of the H3 jet and we continue to see the anomalous moisture
with PWATs in excess of 2 inches. There may be a lull through the
evening before activity redevelops later tonight. Deep layer warm
cloud depths around 4000m will continue to support efficient
rainfall with no change planned to the ongoing flood watch. Little
change in sensible weather is expected across the forecast area
as we move into Sunday as the diffuse frontal boundary remains
draped over the area keeping the higher pbl moisture along and
east of the Kansas Turnpike. Any breaks in the cloud cover will
result in scattered showers and storms quickly redeveloping once
again with the potential for pockets of heavy rainfall lingering
across the area.

Mon-Tue...Very little change is expected in the large-scale pattern
as we move into the early portion of the week with a persistent
mid/upper trough remaining nearly stationary across the Central High
Plains and a mid/upper ridge helping to funnel deep tropical
moisture over the central CONUS. The mid/upper trough may edge
slightly closer to the area bringing increasing chances for more
widespread precipitation to the region. This setup will continue to
support efficient rainfall for areas that remain saturated as PWATs
remain at or above 2 inches with deep layer warm cloud depths
progged to persist over the area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

The mid/upper trough over the Northern Plains is progged to move
eastward toward the middle of the week, while plentiful low level
moisture remains entrenched across our region. So, even with
rising heights we could still see some diurnally driven showers
and storms linger through the middle and latter portion of the
upcoming week. As we move towards the end of the work-week and
into the weekend, a shortwave trough moving over the Upper
Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes area will drive a cold front
south across the Central Plains and delivering a drier airmass
which should result in a return to dry weather conditions towards
the end of the forecast. Seasonably cool temperatures are
anticipated through the period with highs mostly in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 716 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

A diffuse frontal boundary remains draped southwest to northeast in
the vicinity of the Kansas Turnpike. Showers and  a few storms have
developed in the vicinity of this boundary across south central KS,
but think most of this activity will stay to the SW-S of the KICT
taf.  Will go with a VCTS for any storm that ventures close. As the
late evening progresses, latest short range model suggest that low
level moisture transport and potential convective activity will
increase across SE KS, potentially affecting the KCNU and possibly
the KICT taf sites after 06z.  So will go with a VCTS for the KICT
taf and prevailing SHRA/VCTS for the KCNU taf where the convection
looks more likely. MVFR and some IFR cigs will be likely under the
showers and storms impacting KCNU into the late night and early
morning hours on Sun.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    68  82  66  82 /  30  30  20  40
Hutchinson      65  84  65  82 /  20  10  10  30
Newton          66  83  65  82 /  20  20  20  40
ElDorado        67  81  66  82 /  40  40  30  50
Winfield-KWLD   68  80  66  82 /  60  60  40  50
Russell         62  84  64  83 /  10  10  10  30
Great Bend      62  83  64  83 /  10  10  10  30
Salina          64  87  65  83 /  10   0  10  30
McPherson       64  84  64  82 /  20  10  10  30
Coffeyville     69  81  69  83 /  80  90  70  70
Chanute         69  80  68  82 /  70  80  60  70
Iola            68  81  68  82 /  70  70  50  70
Parsons-KPPF    69  81  68  82 /  80  90  60  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Sunday for KSZ071-072-094>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...Ketcham

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
356 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-272100-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
356 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Showers and storms producing locally heavy rain will remain
possible over southeast Kansas tonight. See latest flood watch for
additional details. In addition, ongoing flooding is occurring from
recent heavy rain so be sure to check the flood warnings for the
latest information.

A strong storm or two may produce wind gusts around 50 mph along
with small hail this afternoon and evening across southern Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Showers and storms producing locally heavy rainfall will continue
through early next week, especially for locations southeast of the
Kansas Turnpike. In addition, a few strong storms with gusty winds
will also be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
156 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0124 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 E CHANUTE             37.67N 95.35W
06/26/2021  M11.00 INCH      NEOSHO             KS   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA FACEBOOK OF 11 INCHES FROM FRIDAY
            EVENING THROUGH THIS MORNING.

1115 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 N PEABODY             38.25N 97.11W
06/26/2021  M9.00 INCH       MARION             KS   PUBLIC

            FACEBOOK REPORT OF 9 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE
            LAST 24 HOURS.

0127 PM     HEAVY RAIN       CHANUTE                 37.68N 95.46W
06/26/2021  M9.00 INCH       NEOSHO             KS   PUBLIC

            FACEBOOK REPORTS OF 9 INCHES FOR THE STORMS
            FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO THIS MORNING.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
739 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

KSZ093-270115-
Cowley KS-
739 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southwestern Cowley County in south central Kansas...

* Until 815 PM CDT.

* At 737 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 6 miles
  north of Arkansas City to Chilocco...and moving east at 25 mph.

50 mph winds are possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Arkansas City, Winfield, Dexter, Maple City and Strother Field
  Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3722 9712 3726 9668 3700 9676 3700 9715
TIME...MOT...LOC 0038Z 270DEG 23KT 3716 9701 3701 9707

KLEINSASSER