Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
634 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

Main concern in the short term is the potential for strong to
marginally severe convection this evening in the vicinity of the
slow moving surface cold front. This activity will be followed up by
more widespread showers and isolated strong storms overnight across
the area.

For this evening, while sfc convergence along the front does
increase, majority of models keep the area somewhat capped all
along the front, with less capping as you move northeast along the
front. Thus thinking the first round of storms this evening
remain more widely scattered in nature, though can't rule out the
potential for storms to unzip along the boundary from the
northeast. The main threat with any storms that develop in this
period will be damaging winds due to very strong low level lapse
rates/inverted V structure in the vertical thermal profile. This
results in prefrontal DCAPE values of near 1800 J/kg. There will
be a brief period where favorable shear will overlap and increase
the isolated large hail potential early evening.

Later tonight, more widespread shower and storms are expected to
redevelop along the mid level baroclinic zone which will be laying
across the CWA. This zone will slowly work south throughout the
night. Isolated rowdy storms will definitely be possible as
models continue to advertise 1000-1500 MUCAPE mainly across
southern KS. Further north, central KS will lose most MUCAPE
pretty quick, so thinking showers and generic storms there.

Area wide, shear will be the limiting factor. Can't rule out a
severe wind gust or two making it to the ground overnight given the
inverted V sounding just above the sfc. However with somewhat messy
multicell activity and perhaps a few short lived bowing segments,
thinking majority of the night time activity should remain in the
sub-severe category. Expect showers/storms to linger across the area
tomorrow morning, and perhaps into tomorrow afternoon across
southeast KS as an area of positive vorticity advection sweeps
through the area.

Quite the noticeable temperature change can be expected tomorrow
as highs will be limited to the 70s area wide with comfortable
dew points in the 50s. Another near to below normal high temp day
is expected Tuesday. The relief from the heat will be short lived
as upper ridging builds mid week.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

Summer returns mid week as upper ridging gets underway across the
Plains brining 90s and 100s temps back to the area. On the heels of
the ridge is a shortwave trough which is set to move through
northern mid america by the weekend, driving another cold front and
another round of meaningful precipitation chances to the region.
Of note the GFS is an outlier and brings a rather deep trough over
the four corners region by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

VFR forecast at all sites throughout the period, outside of
thunderstorms. Main concern is amount of convection on front,
which is approaching KICT at this time. Few cells have already
developed, but significant capping remains and cells have been
struggling. Increased winds behind front with most models
suggesting at least 15-20kts sustained.

Anticipating some showers to develop later tonight behind front,
but still a bit unclear how widespread that will be. At this time
opted to go mainly VCSH and update as things become more certain.
Anticipate lower, but most likely VFR post frontal clouds towards
daybreak - mostly confined to central KS. Clouds should rapidly
decreased in the afternoon as synoptic scale subsidence overspreads
the area. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    64  76  57  84 /  60  60   0   0
Hutchinson      63  77  57  85 /  70  70   0   0
Newton          62  76  56  83 /  60  70   0   0
ElDorado        62  74  54  81 /  60  60   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   65  74  55  82 /  50  70   0   0
Russell         60  79  58  87 /  60  50   0   0
Great Bend      61  79  58  85 /  70  60   0   0
Salina          62  79  58  87 /  50  50   0   0
McPherson       62  77  56  85 /  60  70   0   0
Coffeyville     68  75  53  81 /  40  60   0   0
Chanute         65  74  53  81 /  50  80   0   0
Iola            64  74  53  81 /  50  70   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    67  74  53  81 /  60  80   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KMB
LONG TERM...KMB
AVIATION...ADK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
434 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-212145-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
434 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along a southward
moving cold front mainly after 6 PM this evening. Storms may be strong
to severe weather with damaging winds up to 65 mph,nickel size
hail, and isolated quarter sized hail.

Scattered storms are expected to redevelop after midnight across
central, south central and southeast Kansas. A few storms across
southern Kansas may be strong with wind gusts up to 55 mph and dime
size hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Lingering showers and storms will be possible Monday morning across
southern Kansas. A storm or two may be strong with wind gusts to 55
mph and dime size hail.

Storms will be possible again for Wednesday through Saturday across
the region. Please check later outlooks for updated information.

Heat indices will approach 100 degrees on Wednesday, and 100 to 105
degrees on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service WICHITA KS
640 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

KSZ070-210015-
Greenwood KS-
640 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

The National Weather Service in WICHITA has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Central Greenwood County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 715 PM CDT.

* At 638 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 14 miles northwest of Eureka...
  moving east at 35 mph.

wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Hamilton, Eureka City Lake and Thrall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3780 9607 3791 9652 3809 9652 3809 9635
      3807 9601
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 280DEG 28KT 3800 9644

COOK