Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
540 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 302 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

Models show increasing low level moisture transport early this
morning which should generate scattered to numerous rain showers
with some embedded storms today. A few strong storms with hail up to
nickel size will be possible mainly this morning due to combination
of steeper mid-level lapse rates, strong shear, and MUCAPE values in
the 500-1000 J/kg range. Meanwhile the strong storm chances and
coverage should begin to diminish during the afternoon/evening as
moisture transport weakens.

The upper level system over the southwestern states will move very
slowly eastward from tonight and reach western Kansas by Sunday.
Additional rounds of numerous showers and storms will affect the
region from tonight through Sunday. Standardized precipitable water
anomalies will rise 3 to 4 deviations above normal which supports
higher rainfall rates, and given the longer duration of this signal
targeting central Kansas we will expand the flood watch to cover
those areas. Widespread 2 to 4 inches with locally higher rainfall
totals are likely before this system moves east of Kansas. This will
elevate the flooding risk along with rises on many creeks and rivers
across the area. Some of the creeks and rivers could experience
minor or moderate flooding.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 302 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

Medium range models show the upper level system gradually shifting
east of Kansas on Monday with some lingering rain possible.
Otherwise longer range models show a lull in the precipitation for
Monday night-Tuesday. This could be short-lived as another healthy
weather system is forecast by GFS model to affect the region for mid-
week which could include a possible rain/snow mix over central
Kansas. ECMWF model suggests a continuation of dry weather next week
with cooler drier air overspreading Kansas. Either solution favors
daytime highs being cooler than normal for next week, as the weather
pattern keeps the warmer air south of Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 540 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

Expect deteriorating aviation conditions this morning and later
today, as scattered SHRA and some embedded TSRA move across the area
this morning, with more widespread SHRA expected later today and
tonight.  This will lead to most locations seeing MVFR cigs and even
some MVFR vsbys in and around the convection.  So will go with
SHRA/VCTS for most locations with vsbys of 3-5sm.  For this evening,
expect cigs to continue to diminish, becoming IFR for most
locations, with MVFR vsbys due to widespread SHRA expected.

Ketcham

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 302 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

Fire weather concerns will remain low across the entire region for
several days due to widespread rainfall for today through the
weekend. Cooler temperatures will be in store for next week along
with more chances of rain by mid-week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    50  47  60  51 /  80 100 100  90
Hutchinson      48  44  58  48 /  80 100 100  90
Newton          48  45  56  50 /  80  90  90  90
ElDorado        49  47  59  52 /  90  90  90  80
Winfield-KWLD   54  49  63  51 /  90 100  90  80
Russell         45  39  52  44 /  70 100 100 100
Great Bend      45  41  54  44 /  80 100 100 100
Salina          48  42  56  48 /  80  80 100 100
McPherson       48  44  57  48 /  80  90 100  90
Coffeyville     56  51  66  55 /  90  90  70  50
Chanute         52  48  62  54 /  90  80  80  50
Iola            51  47  59  53 /  90  80  80  50
Parsons-KPPF    55  50  66  54 /  90  90  80  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...Ketcham
FIRE WEATHER...CDJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
422 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-131030-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
422 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected for today and tonight across
the region. A few strong storms could produce pea to nickel size
hail mainly during the morning and late night hours. In addition,
periods of heavy rainfall is possible tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue to
affect the region for Saturday and Sunday. A few strong to
marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday with southern
Kansas having the higher chances. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1
to 3 inches is expected for this weekend, with locally higher
amounts possible. The rain could be heavy at times, especially
during the night time hours on Saturday. In addition, modest to
significant rises on area rivers and streams are likely, with some
street and low-land flooding also possible.

Another weather system could bring more rain chances to the region
for Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Colder air could change
the precipitation over to a rain snow mix.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

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