Areal Flood Warning 3, NWS Wichita, KS

799 
WGUS83 KICT 131259
FLSICT

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
659 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

KSC125-131930-
/O.CON.KICT.FA.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210313T1930Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Montgomery KS-
659 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON 
FOR MONTGOMERY COUNTY...

At 659 AM CST, Doppler radar indicated an area of very heavy 
rainfall across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have 
fallen.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Coffeyville, Independence, Cherryvale, Caney, Dearing, Elk City, 
  Tyro, Liberty, Havana, Bolton, Sycamore, Independence Airport, Elk 
  City State Park, Elk City Lake and Coffeyville Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive into flooded areas or go around barricades. Nearly two 
feet of water will carry most vehicles away. Turn around, don't 
drown.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3738 9596 3738 9553 3701 9553 3701 9595

$$

Ketcham

980 
WGUS43 KICT 131919
FLWICT

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Wichita KS
119 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

KSC125-141930-
/O.EXT.KICT.FA.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210314T1930Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Montgomery KS-
119 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

The National Weather Service in Wichita has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Montgomery County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 230 PM CDT Sunday.

* At 119 PM CST, local law enforcement reported minor flooding along 
  South Street. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain have fallen in the 
  last 24 hours. Another round of heavy rainfall from thunderstorms 
  is expected tonight into Sunday morning.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Coffeyville, Independence, Cherryvale, Caney, Dearing, Elk City, 
  Tyro, Liberty, Havana, Bolton, Sycamore, Independence Airport, Elk 
  City State Park, Elk City Lake and Coffeyville Airport.

Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible tonight into 
Sunday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive into flooded areas or go around barricades. Nearly two 
feet of water will carry most vehicles away. Turn around, don't 
drown.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3738 9596 3738 9553 3701 9553 3701 9595

$$

Pearce

673 
WGUS83 KICT 140247
FLSICT

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
847 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

KSC125-141930-
/O.CON.KICT.FA.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210314T1930Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Montgomery KS-
847 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR 
MONTGOMERY COUNTY...

At 847 PM CST, flooding was likely ongoing for typical flood-prone 
areas across the county, as well as low-water bridges and crossings. 
Between 2 and 4 inches of rain fell across the county the past few 
days. Another couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are 
expected late tonight through early afternoon Sunday, which will 
only aggravate ongoing flooding concerns.

Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible in the warned 
area from late tonight through early afternoon Sunday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3738 9596 3738 9553 3701 9553 3701 9595

$$

Kleinsasser

848 
WGUS83 KICT 141928
FLSICT

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
228 PM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021

KSC125-141938-
/O.EXP.KICT.FA.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210314T1930Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Montgomery KS-
228 PM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021

...FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 230 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
MONTGOMERY COUNTY...

Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please remember to avoid driving through flooded roads
including any unpaved roadways.

LAT...LON 3738 9596 3738 9553 3701 9553 3701 9595

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
325 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 316 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

Early morning analysis shows strong low-level moisture transport
feeding numerous showers/storms across southern Kansas. This area of
showers/storms will gradually shift northward with decreasing
chances by this afternoon. Meanwhile moisture transport axis will re-
organize and strengthen over western Kansas for this morning into
the afternoon. This will generate a line of widespread
showers/storms from Texas panhandle northward into western Kansas.
This line will then spread eastward into central/south central
Kansas later this afternoon and especially for tonight. A few
strong to marginally severe line segments could affect locations
along and west of I-135/I-35 this evening. Otherwise the main
hazard will switch over to heavy rainfall and possible flooding
for tonight into the morning hours on Sunday, mainly for
locations along and west of I-135/I-35. This will be a favored
area for possible training of showers/storms with higher rainfall
rates due to well above normal precipitable water values.

A well pronounced dry slot from the closed upper level system will
pivot northeast across Kansas on Sunday with associated band of
showers shifting into far eastern Kansas. Meanwhile a combination
of strong daytime heating in the clearing zone, and very cold
temperatures aloft associated with closed upper level low is
something we will need to keep an eye on. Models are showing
decent potential for low-topped cold core storms developing in
the dry slot clearing area during the mid to late afternoon time
frame. Favorable ingredients of steep low-mid level lapse rates
and low level instability could create an environment supportive
of producing a few cold core tornadoes. The key things for us to
watch will be if enough low level instability materializes along
the surface boundary for low topped storms to develop, and where
that low level boundary sets up during the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 316 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

Models are in better agreement with a well-developed weather system
bringing another round of precipitation to the region for Tuesday
night into Wednesday. We could even see a possible rain/snow mix
occur over central Kansas as colder air is pulled southward on
the backside of this system. Colder below normal temperatures look
to spread across Kansas for Thursday and Friday in the wake of
this system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

IFR/LIFR conditions are anticipated for most sites throughout the
period due to persistent moist east/southeast flow. That combined
with varying degrees of lift will promote rounds of showers and/or
thunderstorms.

Baroclinic zone in 850-925 millibar layer has been focus for
showers/thunderstorm this evening across far southern KS and
northern OK. Activity is expected to increase over the next few
hours as 850MB flow increases into boundary, with precipitation
likely moving into KHUT, KICT and KCNU within the first hour or
so of forecast. Saturated upslope flow in central KS tomorrow
morning suggest LIFR or VLIFR is probable with decent chance it
will persist all day, especially at KRSL and KGBD. Some hints for
low level wind shear developing tomorrow evening, but was not a
solid signal and opted to not include at this time. -Howerton

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

Fire weather concerns will remain low across the entire region for
several days due to recent widespread and expected rainfall through
this weekend. Another round of rain is likely for Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    61  49  64  43 /  80  90  60  10
Hutchinson      58  48  63  40 /  90 100  60  20
Newton          58  50  63  42 /  80  90  70  10
ElDorado        60  51  64  44 /  80  90  80  10
Winfield-KWLD   65  50  66  44 /  80  90  60  10
Russell         53  44  62  37 / 100 100  60  30
Great Bend      56  45  61  37 / 100 100  40  20
Salina          56  48  63  41 /  90 100  90  20
McPherson       57  48  63  40 /  90 100  70  20
Coffeyville     67  54  62  45 /  90  80 100  10
Chanute         62  54  59  44 /  80  80  90  10
Iola            61  53  57  44 /  80  80 100  20
Parsons-KPPF    65  54  61  45 /  90  80 100  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...PJH
FIRE WEATHER...CDJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
420 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-141030-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
420 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Periods of showers and storms will continue across the region for
today and become more widespread tonight. The rain could be heavy at
times. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher
amounts are expected area-wide. See latest flood watch for more
details. In addition, a few strong to marginally severe storms will
be possible for late this afternoon and tonight, mainly across
central and south central Kansas. The stronger storms will be
capable of producing hail up to the size of quarters, and winds of
40 to 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Numerous showers and storms will continue to move slowly eastward
across the region for Sunday morning. Flooding will remain a threat
area wide. See latest flood watch for additional details. A few
strong storms could redevelop Sunday afternoon mainly for locations
along and north of a Salina to Hillsboro, to Eureka line.

Another weather system could bring more rain chances to the region
for Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Colder air could
change the precipitation over to a rain snow mix across central
Kansas Wednesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict